Monday Alpha Report 2024 12 30 The Head & Shoulders meme has arrived, with all the major crypto outlets & content creators parading the concept of Bitcoin’s imminent decline to $80,000. In last week’s reports, I advised a cautious approach and talked about several risk factors appearing in the market. As I expect volatility to pick up this week, it’s essential to be aware of the current downside risk as well as the longer-term upside potential. While I initially had a more dismissive attitude over the Fed’s hawkishness during our most recent FOMC meeting, as price has continued to be impacted, I doubled down on my analysis. I highlighted how Bitcoin’s significant rallies throughout 2024 were in large part due to a dovish stance from the Fed and clear guidance on current and future rate cuts. During Powell’s speech two weeks ago, that dovishness evaporated as he pivoted from the assurance of rate cuts to almost the opposite, with the market now pricing in potential RATE HIKES in 2025. This was the catalyst for the current decline in price, bringing Bitcoin back within it’s historical trend of tracking Global Monetary Supply (which has been contracting). While the majority of the market feels that we are on the brink of an imminent continuation of the Bull Market, as I pointed out not only in last week’s reports but during last week’s live streams, we don’t see the strength we have seen throughout September and November until optimistically end of January, but more realistically end of March or May. This is because the Fed can’t be seen as so quickly flip-flopping on the issue of inflation, which should not even be their primary concern; unemployment should be, but I digress. Therefore, my current baseline case is that Bitcoin enters a period of consolidation similar to what we saw from April through October, ranging consolidation making lower lows. Now, on the topic of alt season, I have yet to reach a conclusive stance on this. As I said in my last report, the market seems committed to the idea of it kicking off Q1 of 2025. Now, even though I believe Bitcoin is unlikely to return to its bullish stride until Q1/Q2 of 2025, there is a historical precedent for altseason popping off without the need for Bitcoin to be rising in price: the 2018 altseason. At that time, Bitcoin peaked and had already corrected by nearly 30% before alts began to go parabolic. With most alts down significantly, this scenario is unlikely but not impossible. However, at this time, I am not betting heavily on it. Therefore, it is safest for traders to focus on their high-conviction plays and take advantage of the next few months to rebalance their portfolio, set aside fresh capital for investment on further dips, and hold long-term plays. In the short term, there will be lots of plays for us to anticipate and take advantage of, the primary one right now being AI Agents. I have been doing a deep dive into the ecosystem and market mechanics of the AI Agent sector, spending far too much time on cookie.fun for example, than I would care to admit. This is the most promising, albeit high-risk, sector to focus on right now for immediate gain and trade opportunities. I recommend adopting a simple trend-following, moving average crossover strategy (30 over 50 EMA) on the 1 to 4-hour timeframe for a simple strategy, as this has backtested to be wildly successful on these assets. I will post recommendations and trade setups as the New Year progresses. Market Opportunities: SPORE - I posted about the Spore opportunity on Thursday. It went up 70% following my post. Has pulled back from LSE:80M MC to $48.5M. Keep your eyes on this one; it might run again, or the party might be over for a while. Momentum is about to fire long on the 4H. YNE - yesnoerror, sub FWB:30M MC. It’s a ‘DeSci’ AI Agent powered by OpenAI’s o1 model. Its job is to analyze scientific papers for mathematical errors. Followed by most of my smart money accounts on X. Contract Address: 7D1iYWfhw2cr9yBZBFE6nZaaSUvXHqG5FizFFEZwpump Chain: Solana X: https://x.com/yesnoerror Macro: Stablecoin Dominance https://www.tradingview.com/x/emddFYLG/ So far has been unable to successfully break above 6.00%, however our shorter-term moving averages are creeping up, signifying a potential breakout. While we remain underneath the Daily 200 SMA, this metric is in a bearish trend but it is still showing early warning signs of trend reversal. Stablecoin + Bitcoin Dominance: https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZtHDqQbO/ So far, following my original game plan to a T. Dead-cat bounced to re-test the breakdown zone, and is currently trending back down below the 200 SMA. If this trend continues, it will be the strongest evidence of altseason coming as the market predicted. Altcoin Performance Relative to Bitcoin: https://www.tradingview.com/x/NOjhPIul/ Following the expected bounce from the 200 SMA + Time Transformation Buy Signal, this metric mirrors stablecoin dominance: tight consolidation. So far, this is promising as we have not seen an immediate rejection as altcoins tentatively hold on to their outperformance of Bitcoin in the short term. Bitcoin Trends: https://www.tradingview.com/x/KZI1UIaK/ 5M: Bullish 30M: Bearish 1H: Bearish 4H: Bearish D: Bullish Key Levels: https://www.tradingview.com/x/qAHRiJJv/ POC: $95,347 VWAP: $93,035 Value Area High: $94,700 - $95,171 Value Area Low: $90,899 - $91,946 Resistance: POC Support: $92,000 Strategy: Bitcoin is putting in a nice reaction following its brief dip below $92,000 - however, we’re far from out of the woods. 30M is coming up upon resistance, and price has been faked out several times. Price above $95,000 starts to get a bit more hopeful; however, I see a position here. Unless the last four hours of gains are completely given back, this is a promising Daily Doji candle at support, which has lead bounces on the three previous situations in which it occurred. I can’t underscore enough, however, that Bitcoin is on the cusp of losing its bullish daily trend and is bearish on all other time frames less the 5 minute. The only other chance would be a bounce off the 10 Weekly EMA, which we just experienced on today’s dip. Regardless, Bitcoin either takes advantage of this short-term momentum and makes a test of $96,000 - or we give back our gains quickly and break support, opening up the $80-$85,000 territory for us. The former is more likely.
For a number of years now, Moft has offered some of the most innovative gadget accessories. They’re always interesting, if not necessarily useful. This new combination Find My wallet and stand manages to tick both boxes. The accessory was announced a couple of weeks out from CES, where it will be shown off for the […] © 2024 TechCrunch. All rights reserved. For personal use only.
Treasury officials attributed the December theft of unclassified documents to China. © 2024 TechCrunch. All rights reserved. For personal use only.
While AI is lauded by some as the biggest technological breakthrough since the industrial revolution, enterprises — arguably the tech’s biggest potential customer base — have been slow to adopt AI. While some investors predicted that 2024 would be the year we’d start to see more AI adoption by enterprises, that didn’t play out as […] © 2024 TechCrunch. All rights reserved. For personal use only.
Nearly a quarter century after its founding, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin is gearing up to launch an orbital rocket for the first time — and finally enter the competitive launch industry that is currently dominated by SpaceX. Company executives have maintained that they are planning to launch the towering rocket, called New Glenn, before the […] © 2024 TechCrunch. All rights reserved. For personal use only.
Steam’s latest mini-sensation has arrived and it’s called MiSide. The meta thriller in the vein of Doki Doki Literature Club has already racked up one of the highest ratings on Valve’s storefront just a couple weeks after its completely under-the-radar launch, thanks in part to streams by Mark “Markiplier” Fischbach…Read more...
Vier Stunden täglich verbringe ich am Smartphone – das ist ein Viertel meiner Wachzeit. Die „Forest“-App verspricht, diesen Konsum durch das Pflanzen von virtuellen und echten Bäume zu reduzieren. Ich habe getestet, ob das Konzept wirklich funktioniert.
The cryptocurrency market has its eyes on Ethena (ENA) as the token broke out above the critical $1 resistance level, signaling a bullish trend. We are predicting gains of up to 35%. Breakout Above $1 Signals Bullish Sentiment Ethena’s price has established a bullish trajectory after breaking through the crucial $1 resistance level. This breakout marks the end of a prolonged downtrend, during which the price bottomed out and began forming higher lows. Strong buying pressure accompanied the move, evident from large green candlesticks on the chart. The $1 level, previously a significant resistance, has now transitioned into a robust support zone. We observe that the $0.97-$1.00 range is crucial for maintaining upward momentum. Holding above this level will be essential for MIL:ENA to sustain its bullish outlook. Technical Outlook As of this writing, MIL:ENA is up 5.68%, trading within a bullish horizon. The altcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 54, indicating there is ample room for further upward movement. MIL:ENA has broken out of a presumed falling trend channel, reinforcing its bullish momentum. The 1-month high of $1.32 serves as the next significant resistance point. If MIL:ENA can breach this level, it could pave the way for even greater gains. However, caution is warranted due to the broader market’s volatility, particularly Bitcoin’s recent price swings. Should CRYPTOCAP:BTC dip to $90,000 or the psychological $85,000 level, it could exert downward pressure on MIL:ENA , potentially causing a retreat to its 1-month low of $0.76. Conclusion Ethena’s breakout above $1 marks a pivotal moment for the token, signaling the potential for significant gains. With strong technical indicators and bullish market sentiment, MIL:ENA appears poised for a rally. However, traders should remain vigilant, considering the broader market’s influence on altcoin performance. As MIL:ENA continues to hold above $1, the coming days could bring substantial price action and opportunities for investors.
This looks right on a certain line in the sand, with the higher targets at 65 and above. The monthly close will be interesting and using a simple pair of moving averages, it still looks like a continuation to the upside is more likely than a trend change. But it's very close - it needs to get above this horizontal resistance level with a favourable monthly close.
EUR/NZD is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 1.84535 1st Support: 1.82654 1st Resistance: 1.85426 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.