Hello this is my take on GBPUSD. Given the broader bullish trend in GBP/USD, I believe a long trade is the best play right now, but I’ll be watching key technical levels and upcoming news events to time my entry properly. Technical Indicators Supporting a Long Trade Trend Confirmation: The daily moving averages (EMA, MA, and TEMA) continue to show an upward trajectory, meaning GBP/USD remains in a solid bullish structure. The price is consistently trading above key averages, reinforcing the trend. The Aroon Oscillator (AROONOSC) on the 4-hour chart is at 85.71, showing strong bullish control. This suggests upward momentum is likely to persist. Momentum Indicators: Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe is 76—this does suggest overbought conditions, but in a strong trend, RSI can stay elevated for long periods. Instead of treating this as a reversal signal, I take it as confirmation that buying pressure remains high. Stochastic RSI (StochRSI) is also at 100 across multiple timeframes, indicating price exhaustion. While this could lead to a short-term pullback, it doesn’t necessarily mean a trend reversal—just that entering on a dip might provide a better price. Volatility and Market Conditions: Average True Range (ATR) is rising, meaning market volatility is picking up. This can be useful for timing entries—if I see a pullback within the rising ATR environment, it may be a good chance to enter before the next leg up. Fundamental Factors to Watch UK Employment Change (Feb) Beat Expectations: The UK added 206K jobs, smashing the consensus forecast of 95K. A strong labor market fuels economic stability and consumer spending, which in turn supports the British Pound. With employment data coming in hot, GBP could remain strong leading into the next major report. Upcoming GBP Inflation Data (Apr 16): UK inflation is forecast at 2.7% YoY for March, down slightly from 2.8%. If inflation remains stable or surprises higher, it could further support GBP, as traders anticipate possible moves from the Bank of England (BoE). US Retail Sales and Powell’s Speech (Apr 16): The US Retail Sales MoM is expected at 1.3%, but if it underperforms, it could signal weakening consumer demand and hurt the USD. Fed Chair Powell’s speech could be a major volatility driver—if he hints at slower rate hikes or economic softness, USD could weaken, lifting GBP/USD higher. US Jobless Claims (Apr 17): Initial jobless claims forecast at 225K—if this number comes in higher, it might reinforce concerns about a weakening labor market and put more pressure on the Fed to ease policy. My Trade Plan Given all of this, I’m looking for a long entry but waiting for confirmation on the hourly chart before entering. Ideal Entry: If GBP/USD pulls back to 1.3180–1.3190, I’ll look for buying signals (such as bullish candlestick formations or divergence in momentum indicators). If it breaks above 1.3245 with strong volume, that could confirm further upside, and I might enter on the breakout instead. Final Thoughts The uptrend is strong, but I don’t want to enter at the peak of an overbought rally. Instead, I’ll wait for a pullback or a breakout confirmation before committing to the trade. Additionally, I’m keeping an eye on how the UK inflation numbers and Powell’s speech shape market sentiment over the next 48 hours. All signs point toward GBP/USD continuing higher, but patience will be key in timing the best entry.
The recent performance of the US dollar index has been rather weak, approaching several key lows touched last week. Although it has rebounded somewhat and reached 100.279 now, the market's confidence in the prospects of US economic policies has declined. Coupled with the potential policy shift of the Federal Reserve, in the medium to long term, the US dollar is likely to continue to face selling pressure. In terms of trading operation, shorting on rallies is still advisable. Trading Strategy: Sell@100.300-100.500 TP:99.500-99.000 The signals last week resulted in continuous profits, and accurate signals were shared daily. ? ? ? Obtain signals???
I have taken a buy position on USDJPY based on a confluence of technical factors supporting a bullish bias: ? Key Weekly Support Zone: Price recently bounced from a strong weekly support level, which has held well in the past, indicating buyers' interest. ? Bullish Daily Candle: On the daily timeframe, a strong bullish candlestick closed above the support level, signaling a potential trend reversal or short-term upside move. ? Trendline Support: On the 4H chart, price is respecting a clear ascending trendline, acting as dynamic support. ? RSI Indicator: RSI is recovering from the oversold zone and showing signs of bullish momentum buildup, supporting a possible upward move. ? 200 EMA (Resistance): While the price is still trading below the 200 EMA, this trade targets a move toward that level as the next potential resistance. ? Entry: Near 143.00 ? Stop Loss: Below 142.20 (just under recent wick lows) ✅ Take Profit: Around 144.80 (just before the 200 EMA) Risk-to-reward ratio is favorable, and this setup aligns with higher-timeframe support and confirmation from bullish price action.
On my previous analysis earlier today I was expecting a triangle to be formed for the 4th wave. However, the idea is now invalidated. Now what to expect from this current structure is price to continue lower to complete a WXY correction to around 50% fib or continue up from the current level. The only way to take advantage to ride this last 5th wave of lower degree is by lower time frame confirmation. Lets keep monitoring the price. Cheers.
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