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Dear Trader, Please find attached my analysis of $Subject, which uses mathematical calculations to identify potential reversal times and price levels. The analysis details projected south and north price targets (horizontal lines on the chart), along with estimated time frames for possible reversals (vertical lines on the chart, accurate to within +/- 1-2 candles). Please note that all times indicated on the chart, including the vertical lines representing potential reversal times, are based on the UTC+4 time zone. To increase the probability of these analyses, I recommend monitoring the 5-minute and 15-minute charts for the following key reversal candlestick patterns: Doji’s Double Bottom/Top Engulfing Bullish /Bearish Hanging Man Hammer/Inverted Hammer Morning Star Shooting Star Triple Top/Bottom For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya Trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance. 144522 144630 144481 144671 144386 144766 144196 144956 144006 145147 143817 145337 143627 145528 143438 145719 143248 145910 143059 146101 142304 146866 141550 147634 140799 148403 140049 149175 139302 149948 138556 150724 137813 151501 137071 152281
GBPUSD Analysis: A Critical Juncture The GBPUSD currency pair has opened with a notable gap down, sparking immediate interest among traders and investors. However, what's particularly intriguing is the rejection from this gap, suggesting that the market is hesitant to extend its losses further. This rejection is compounded by the presence of support from the weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) and daily alignment, which adds a layer of complexity to the current market dynamics. The confluence of these technical indicators – the rejection from the gap and the support from the weekly FVG and daily alignment – presents a compelling narrative for potential buyers. If the market can muster the momentum to break above the critical resistance level of $1.28725, it could trigger a significant bullish trend. This would likely be driven by a combination of technical and fundamental factors, including shifts in market sentiment, economic indicators, and central bank policies. On the other hand, failure to breach the $1.28725 level could see this resistance act as a significant hurdle, potentially leading to a continuation of the current consolidation or even a reversal. The market's next move will be crucial in determining its direction, and traders will be closely monitoring key economic releases, central bank communications, and technical patterns to gauge the pair's future trajectory. In this context, the GBPUSD finds itself at a critical juncture, with the potential for significant price movements in either direction. As such, traders and investors would be well-advised to remain vigilant, closely monitoring market developments and adjusting their strategies accordingly to navigate this complex and dynamic market environment.
Hello everyone, let’s talk about the EURUSD pair today! EUR/USD saw a slight bullish rebound on Wednesday, ending a 3-day losing streak and posting some late gains just before the broad “reciprocal” tariffs from the Trump administration took effect on April 9. Currently, EURUSD continues to extend above the 1.100 level. Accordingly, the recent upward momentum has been supported by the weakening of the USD after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on imports from several countries, including a 20% tariff on the European Union. This sparked concerns over a global trade war, prompting investors to reduce USD holdings and seek alternative assets. Additionally, due to a shift in market sentiment, the increase in trade tensions and growing fears of a U.S. economic recession have driven investors to search for safer assets, including the euro. From a technical standpoint, buyers successfully broke out of the descending channel and completed a retest of the previous breakout, with the support level now firmly reinforced by the EMA 34 and 89 – acting as a strong launchpad for EURUSD to climb higher in a favorable environment.
Get ready, traders—the bulls are losing control, and the bears are waking up! We just witnessed a major break from a long-standing ascending channel, and the momentum is screaming downside potential. What’s happening? Price broke below the rising channel with strong bearish momentum and high volume—a textbook move signaling a trend shift! Next key levels to watch: Support Zone 1: 1.25756 – Previous demand area and a magnet for price action Support Zone 2: 1.22672 – Stronger, historical support; if we get here, it’s game on for the bears! What to expect next? Watch out for a potential pullback/retest around the 1.2850–1.2900 zone before a deeper dive. If the retest holds, we could be looking at a clean ride down to the support levels. Volume spike = confirmation. This isn’t just a dip; this is a possible trend shift. Bearish Setup: Entry: On pullback or continued breakdown TP1: 1.25000 TP2: 1.22000
Markets Roiled by New U.S. Tariffs: 28-Hour Recap In the past 28 hours, global financial markets have reacted sharply to the U.S. implementation of sweeping reciprocal tariffs, targeting over 60 countries with adjusted rates ranging from 11% to 50%. The move, aimed at correcting persistent U.S. goods trade deficits, has rattled investor confidence and sparked fears of a global trade slowdown. Key Highlights: U.S. Stocks Dip: The S&P 500 fell 1.9%, while the Dow Jones lost over 600 points amid fears of retaliatory tariffs and rising import costs for U.S. firms. Tech Hit Hard: Tech giants with supply chains linked to Asia, particularly China (now subject to a 34% tariff), saw sharp losses. Apple and NVIDIA shares dropped 3.2% and 4.5%, respectively. Dollar Mixed: The U.S. dollar strengthened against emerging market currencies but weakened against safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, both countries also affected (24% and 31% tariffs, respectively). Commodities Volatile: Oil prices slid 2.4% on concerns over reduced global demand, while gold surged past $2,130 as investors sought shelter from market instability. EU Response: The European Union, facing a 20% U.S. tariff, announced it is "evaluating proportional measures." European stock indexes fell by an average of 1.5%. Asian Markets Plunge: Major indexes like the Nikkei and Hang Seng dropped 2.1% and 3.3%, respectively, reflecting panic over trade disruptions. Euro behaving diferently than its usual. It has many reason behind of it but I try to focus to one biggger reason: Why euro is getting stronger once we see Indexes GER30, SP500 etc getting sold ? China is dumping US Treasuries and selling the USD proceeds daily? How we can verify this? - We have a few tools altough its not realtime data but can confirm our suspition 1. Track China’s Holdings of US Treasuries Source: U.S. Treasury’s Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities report Link: https://home.treasury.gov → Data → Reports → TIC Data Frequency: Monthly Note: A significant drop month-over-month can indicate "dumping." 2. Monitor U.S. Dollar Flows and FX Activity Sources: SWIFT reports (used in interbank transfers) IMF’s COFER database (Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves) Bloomberg Terminal or Reuters (for real-time data) 3. Watch USD/CNY Exchange Rate Movements If China is selling off USD, this might put downward pressure on the dollar. Use platforms like TradingView, Investing.com, or Bloomberg to monitor this daily. 4. Observe China’s Balance of Payments and Reserves Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Significant reductions in foreign exchange reserves or changes in asset composition may suggest reallocation from USD assets. 5. Check Daily Treasury Auctions and Secondary Market Data Platforms like the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or MarketWatch can provide insight into demand for Treasuries. Large sales or weak demand can sometimes reflect foreign selling.
Hello fellow traders! Hope you're navigating the markets smoothly. As we go through the daily dance of price action, one thing becomes clear support and resistance are just moments, not walls. They're temporary. Momentum and trend strength? Now that’s where the real story lies. This publication dives into how these so-called key levels break and more importantly, how to position yourself smartly when they do. Stay flexible, trade with confidence, and let the market lead. Let’s get into it. Why Support and Resistance Levels Break Support and resistance are some of the most talked-about tools in technical analysis. But here's the truth they’re not meant to last forever. No matter how strong a level may appear on your chart, it eventually gets tested, challenged, and often broken. Why? Because the market is dynamic. The real edge for a trader lies not in hoping a level holds, but in reading when it’s about to fail and being ready for it. No Resistance in a Bull, No Support in a Bear Ever seen a strong bull market pause just because of a resistance line? It doesn’t. Price keeps pushing higher as buyers keep stepping in. Same goes for a strong bear market support levels collapse as fear takes over and selling snowballs. Instead of clinging to lines on a chart, think bigger: Where is the momentum? What’s the trend saying? That’s where your trading decisions should come from. Support and Resistance: Not Fixed, Always Shifting Yes, these levels matter but only as zones, not exact prices. They’re areas where price has reacted in the past, where traders might expect something to happen again. But they’re not magic numbers. When traders treat these levels as absolute, they fall into traps false confidence, poor entries, tighter than-needed stop losses. Always remember: market sentiment, liquidity, and institutional activity are constantly changing. So should your interpretation of the chart. The Temporary Nature of These Levels Markets move on supply and demand. A level that acted as resistance last week could easily become support next week. Or break completely. Take the classic example support turning into resistance. When support breaks, former buyers might now be sellers, trying to get out on a bounce. That flip happens because behavior and sentiment have shifted. And as traders, that’s the real pattern we need to track not just price levels, but the psychology behind them. “Strong” Support? It’s Mostly an Illusion We all love the idea of a strong level something we can lean on. But large players? They don’t think like that. Institutions don’t place massive orders at a single price point. They spread across a zone building positions slowly without moving the market too much. What looks like a strong level to us might just be an accumulation or distribution range for them. Always think beyond what’s visible on the surface. How to Spot Breakouts Before They Hit Here’s what separates seasoned traders from the rest the ability to spot potential breakouts before they explode. ? Volume Confirmation: If a resistance level is tested repeatedly on rising volume, that’s a big clue buyers are serious. ? Structure Shifts: Higher highs in an uptrend or lower lows in a downtrend signal that the old levels are being challenged. ? Liquidity Traps: Watch out for fakeouts. These are designed to trap impatient traders just before the real move. ? News & Events: Never ignore macro triggers. Earnings, economic data, or geopolitical surprises can fuel breakouts that crush technical levels. ? Break & Retest: A solid strategy — wait for the level to break, then get in on the retest. ? Momentum Tools: Indicators like RSI, MACD, or even EMAs can offer extra confidence that a move has legs. 3 Practical Trading Setups 1. Breakout Trading Mark key levels on daily or weekly charts. Watch for volume and momentum confirmation. Enter after a clear breakout or retest. Stop-loss: Just below resistance (for longs) or above support (for shorts). 2. Range Trading If price is stuck between support and resistance, trade the range. Look for price rejection (wicks, pin bars, etc.). Use RSI or Stochastics to time entries. 3. Trend Following Identify the dominant trend using moving averages or price structure. Avoid going against the trend unless reversal signs are very clear. Let profits run use trailing stops instead of fixed targets. Mind Over Market: Psychology of S&R One of the biggest traps in trading? Overtrusting support and resistance. We get emotionally attached. We want the support to hold or the resistance to reject. And that bias clouds our judgment. How many times have you seen price break a level — and you freeze because it “wasn’t supposed to”? To break free of that: ✅ Trade with a plan. ✅ Set your risk before the trade, not after. ✅ Don’t treat any level as sacred. ✅ Stay open to what the market is telling you not what you want it to say. Final Thoughts Support and resistance are great tools but they’re just one part of the puzzle. The real power lies in reading price action, watching volume, and understanding market sentiment. Don’t ask, “Will this level hold?” Ask instead, “What happens if it breaks?” That shift in thinking? It can make all the difference. Stay sharp, stay adaptive, and keep evolving with the market. Wishing you green trades and growing accounts! Best Regards- Amit Rajan.