The S&P 500 Index has suffered its steepest two-day drop since the pandemic crash in March 2020. On April 4th, 2025, the benchmark index closed at 5,074.08, down 322.44 points (5.97%). This marks a loss of $5.4 trillion in market value across just two sessions. The sell-off followed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He warned that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs could lead to persistently higher inflation. All 11 sectors in the S&P 500 closed in the red. Only 14 stocks remained positive as Nvidia and Apple fell more than 7%, while Tesla dropped 10%. The Nasdaq 100 Index plunged 6.1%, confirming a bear market after losing over 20% from its February peak. The rapid decline mirrors the speed seen during the 2020 COVID crash and the 2000 dot-com bust. President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on U.S. imports on Wednesday. These include a 10% general tariff and higher rates on dozens of countries. China responded by imposing a 34% levy on American goods. The tit-for-tat measures triggered fears of a full-scale global trade war. Global markets reacted sharply. Investors pulled out of stocks and moved into safer assets like government bonds. The two-day loss of $5 trillion on the S&P 500 set a new record, surpassing the $3.3 trillion loss during March 2020. Rick Meckler, of Cherry Lane Investments, said the escalation is now deeper than many investors expected. The initial belief that tariffs were a negotiation tactic has now given way to serious market concerns. Technical Analysis: Price Approaching Key Support Zones. Will They Hold? The S&P 500 has shown a bearish trend since early 2025. Several weekly candles have closed bearish, confirming a strong downtrend. Currently, the index is trading lower toward a key ascending trendline near $4,930. The $4,930 support level may offer short-term support. A bounce from here could see a brief recovery. However, the sentiment remains bearish without strong economic data or policy changes. Further Downside Risk If Support Fails Another horizontal support sits at $4,780. If both support levels fail, the index may fall toward the $4,500 psychological zone. This level is crucial as it marks a long-term support and potential reversal point. At present, bearish momentum dominates, with much strength coming from trade war fears. Unless data shifts investor sentiment, the downtrend may persist.
We're being magnetically pulled toward the trendline bottom around 4700. Based on the current MACD and RSI signals, the bearish scenario could continue until September–October 2025. This correction is very similar to the one from 2022. There will be some dead cats bounces, but do not be fooled, the MACD is reseting hard. Stay sharp. Be ready. DYOR.
last 2 monthly candles closed pointing at revisiting last high and I that's about to happen as bitcoin dominance is ~2% from last wick's top. Break 64.4% and it can go from 65.5 to 69%. Meaning altcoins will probably bleed bad! Wait for bottom and buy crypto! Monthly chart confirms https://www.tradingview.com/x/7PdORkKi/
This is an outlook for the week of April 7 - 11th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPY Wait for the market to tip its hand! Monday is a no red folder news day. Great time to let the markets settle on a direction. Trading a market after a huge push in one direction can be tricky. There is likely to be a pullback before continuing the overall trend. Bear this in mind with the USD. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Unless this small support holds it'll be confirmed that price has broken down the triangle. If this is the case expect most #Altcoins to bleed a lot. If this index drops 1% alts should be expected to double that drop. Look at it to identify bottoms. Unfortunately Trump's economy poltics are messing up the market and the economies. However we should still be on track for altseason explosive phase.... FOR NOW!
Good Evening and I hope you are well. #mcl1 - wti crude oil futures comment: Strong momentum for the bears but I have zero interest in selling where all bears for the past 2 years lost money. Not much more to say about this. Wait for strong buying and join but market will likely do some more testing of 60 first and then sideways before we can go higher. Anything above 63 is a bull surprise and could lead to a squeeze. current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart key levels: 59 - 63 bull case: Bulls are at prior big support but right now we are still in the spike down phase. Market likely needs some time sideways before we can try a bounce. Bulls would do good if they stay above the 2023-12 low and keep it a higher low. Targets for bulls are the bull trend line break retest around 63.7 and the next breakout retest 2025-03 low at 65. Invalidation is below 59. bear case: Bears had the news crash down and now what? Are they strong enough to make lower lows below 60? I highly doubt it until it happens. Only pattern is an ugly expanding triangle and we are at the very bottom of it. Bears don’t have much reasons to sell down here but technicals only go so far for commodities. I will sit on hands for this. Invalidation is above 63. short term: Neutral for now but I will never sell down here since we have not traded this low for 2 years and every time we went below 65 bears lost. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Down at support again around 60. Market has not traded below 59 since 2023 and until it happens it’s a bad trade betting on it. It’s a multi-year trading range and below 64 bulls made money, not bears. current swing trade: None chart update: Highlighted broken shallow bull trend line and just removed things
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: W3 has likely concluded and I expect the same price action as for W2. Market is respecting technicals precisely. Look at the chart and the obvious numbers and lines. We can always do an over- or undershoot but for now I don’t think looking for shorts after two days of crashing make any sense. current market cycle: strong bear trend key levels: 16000 - 19600 bull case: Bulls still running for the exits but we have fallen too much too fast and we are getting into value territory for bigger players to buy the dip. Almost nothing is ever as bad as these extreme market reactions want to trap you into. Not to the downside and certainly not to the upside but to the upside everyone is busy pounding their chest because they are such a genius for making money in a bull market. Bulls want a squeeze up to 19000, that’s about it. Bear trend line around 18800-19000 will most likely get hit over the next 2 weeks. Invalidation is below 17000. bear case: Same reasoning as for dax. Bears want the big bull trend line around 16500 but they won’t get there in a straight line. W4 is likely around the corner. If we stay below 18800, that would once again leave another gap open and be another show of big strength by the bears. Invalidation is above 19100. short term: W3 has likely concluded, shorting below 18000 is really really not a good trade unless it’s a momentum scalp. Looking to scalp some longs on the squeeze up. medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. Clear W1 of this bear trend. Market now has to close below 19000 to confirm W3. Depending on how deep W3 goes, W5 will either reach only around 17500 or the bull trend line around 16000. current swing trade: None chart update: Made the bear trend clear and my expectation for W4 and W5. As always, it’s a guess.
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: By now you could likely be crash-news-fatigued and I get it. I keep it short and technical. My base assumption is that all markets are heading for their 50% retracements from the covid lows. If no bigger positive news will stop it, we will get there with the next leg down. For now market is tough since 20500 is close enough to expect 20000 but we could very well squeeze to 21500 before more down. Do not try to catch the knife here and wait for market to clearly stop the falling. Chart is clear, mark the levels and trade small. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 20000 - 21500 bull case: Bulls are at big support with 20000 and the bull trend line from 2023-10. That bull trend line can be drawn many different ways and I just presented one possibility and you never know which algos respect what version the most until market has turned. I do think the selling is overdone very much and the short squeeze is around the corner. Targets above are the obvious ones. 21000 and then maybe 21500 but not much more for now. Invalidation is below 19900. bear case: Bears need to reduce risk and lock in some profits I think. I highly doubt market can go to 22000 but it’s not impossible and bears don’t want to see their windfall profits disappear again. The odds of continuing straight down after -10% are low. Very very low. Market could likely do some sideways first. Bears want 20000 and there I expect most to take big profits and a bigger bounce. My wave count is most likely off since I can not see this selling ending here above 20000. The covid low bull trend line is around 19500 and too obvious to not get hit over the next weeks. Invalidation is above 21600. short term: Neutral but I expect a big short squeeze next week. 21500 is my target for the bulls but most likely outcome for next days is chop between 20000 and 21000 medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Clear new bear trend and targets were given end of 2024. If this hits 19500, you buy with both hands stocks and etfs and do not look at them for months or years. Generational buying opportunity. current swing trade: Out of most shorts. Next swing will be for W5 but I want an entry closer to 21500 or 22000 but 22000 is likely too much and we could not get there. chart update: Big bear gap won’t stay open in that size. Big bear trend line above is the most important line on this chart besides the bull trend line from the covid low.
Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), owned by Tata Motors, has paused shipments to the U.S. market this April. The move follows a 25% import tax on vehicles imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. JLR described the U.S. as a vital market and stated it is now adjusting to new trade rules with business partners. The pause is a short-term step. The company aims to finalize longer-term strategies to manage the new tariffs. Analysts believe other British carmakers may soon follow this approach. Britain's auto sector faces pressure from falling domestic demand and the costly transition to electric vehicles. David Bailey, a University of Birmingham professor, predicts more stoppages. He said automakers will reassess their plans amid rising costs and trade uncertainty. Recent data shows U.K. car production fell 13.9% last year to 779,584 units. Over 77% of these vehicles were exported. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) voiced concern. CEO Mike Hawes said the timing worsens an already challenging period. He urged swift trade talks to protect jobs and growth. The SMMT has stayed in regular contact with the U.K. government to seek solutions. To soften the tariff’s impact, carmakers rushed to build inventories in the U.S. JLR was among them. U.K. car exports to the U.S. jumped 38.5% in Dec, 12.4% in January and 34.6% in February. According to official figures, British automakers shipped £8.3 billion ($10.7 billion) worth of cars to the U.S. in the 12 months through September. Cars remain Britain’s largest goods export to the U.S. However, goods make up a smaller portion of overall trade. Services account for 68.2% of the £179.4 billion ($231.2 billion) in total U.K.-U.S. trade during the same period. JLR is not independently listed. But looking at the parental company, Tata Motors (TATAMOTORS.BO) trades on India’s BSE. Its stock closed at INR 613.85 on April 4th, 2025 (6.15%). Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Since July 2024 Highs Tata Motors stock peaked at INR 1179 in July 2024. Since then, it has shown a sharp downtrend. It has surged in bearish momentum and has been breaking major support levels. In late January 2025, the price broke below key support at INR 715 and has retested it in March 2025. Currently, it trades lower and is approaching the next support at around INR 591. If this level fails to hold, the price may fall to INR 525. The downtrend has persisted for months, indicating sustained bearish pressure in the market. The weekly RSI now reads 32, derived from deep bearish sentiment. If the RSI dips further, it may signal oversold conditions. However, the current momentum suggests the stock could still drop. If INR 591 holds, a short-term bounce may follow, with a short-term recovery phase that could push the stock toward the descending trendline. Still, bears maintain control for now, and a break below 591 may accelerate further losses.
Good Evening and I hope you are well. #btcusd - bitcoin comment: The move I was writing and have been expecting for multiple weeks started today and 75k is the target. I won’t repeat all of it. Chart is clear and now it’s on bears to make meaningful lower lows. Below 70k you will likely see some panic. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 70k - 90k bull case: Bulls tried and failed under 90000. Now their last hope is to keep it above 75000 or risk going down to 70000 or below. I absolutely have nothing for them besides praying that 75000 holds. Invalidation is below 70k. bear case: Bears have all the arguments now and the chart is clear as day. Would not be the first time a market would do the opposite of what’s expected but you will not make money in the long run if you only bet on the low probability things happen. Maybe you can but you have to be S-Tier trader amongst traders. Much easier to follow the trend here. 75000 was my big target and I hope we crash to 69000. Invalidation is above 90k. short term: Full bear for 75000 or lower. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. It’s happening. 70k/75k and then I expect a bigger bounce first. Then we will see if we can go lower or not. For now it’s very low probability that the big bull trend line from 2023-10 breaks anytime soon. current swing trade: Short since 85000. Stop is 89000 no matter where you go short. chart update: Removed one minor broken bear trend line.