The US500 remains elevated, but Mongoose Capital’s macro flow dashboard is signaling caution beneath the surface. ? Risk-On Score has slipped from 8/9 to 6/9 ? Recession Risk climbing back to 2/5 ? Sentiment flows turning defensive — XLY/XLP ratio falling sharply ? Volume internals show softening momentum; risk ETFs (KRE, XRT, IYT) losing steam ? HYG (junk bonds) diverging lower — an early canary We’re not in collapse territory — but this is not a safe high either. ? Trade Consideration Reduce exposure on extended positions Watch for rotation into defensives or volatility spikes Short-term bias: Neutral to Bearish Long-term trend: Still intact, but under macro pressure ? Mongoose Macro Strip = Caution Zone Be selective, stay tactical.
About a week ago, Ethereum (ETH) saw a strong upward move, pushing the price up with notable momentum. Since then, it has entered a period of consolidation, trading within a tight range as the market awaits the next decisive move. ------------------------------- Which Direction Will ETH Break? After such a strong rally, this kind of consolidation is normal. It could signal a continuation to the upside, especially if this is part of a broader relief rally. However, it's important to note that during the rapid move up, ETH left behind a 4h Fair Value Gap (FVG), which may attract price back down for a potential fill in the event of a breakdown. ------------------------------- Stochastic RSI insight On the daily chart, the Stochastic RSI remains in the overbought zone. Historically, when this indicator lingers in such territory, ETH has seen notable pullbacks. This could be an early sign that a downward move is more likely unless momentum changes soon. https://www.tradingview.com/x/I1D816tA/ ------------------------------- ETH vs. the 50-Day Moving Average ETH is currently struggling with the 50-day Moving Average (MA), trading just below this key resistance level. As long as ETH remains under the 50-day MA, bearish pressure could continue. However, a reclaim and sustained hold above this level would likely indicate a shift toward bullish momentum. https://www.tradingview.com/x/sxBu3wrw/ ------------------------------- My Outlook This range is tricky to trade, and a breakout in either direction is possible. Personally, I think there's a chance ETH could sweep the recent highs before a larger move down. The overbought Stochastic RSI and resistance at the 50-day MA both suggest that the rally might be losing steam in the short term. ------------------------------- Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
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