ECONOMICS:CNIRYY November/2024 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China https://www.tradingview.com/x/us9foOeh/ - China’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly eased to 0.2% in November 2024 from 0.3% in the previous month, falling short of market forecasts of 0.5% and marking the lowest figure since June. This slowdown highlighted mounting deflation risks in the country despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing and the central bank's supportive monetary policy stance. Food prices rose the least in four months (1.0% vs 2.9% in October), driven by softer increases in both fresh vegetables and pork. Meantime, non-food prices remained unchanged (vs -0.3% in October), with further rises in the cost of healthcare (1.1% vs. 1.1%) and education (1.0% vs 0.8%) and more declines in prices of transport (-3.6% vs -4.8%) and housing (-0.1% vs -0.1%). Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% yoy, the most in 3 months, after a 0.2% gain in October. Monthly, the CPI fell 0.6%, surpassing October's 0.3% fall and the estimated 0.4% drop while pointing to the sharpest decrease since March.
The dollar was back to its usual dominance in the past week, concluded by a positive Non-Farm Payroll figure last Friday. The yen also picked up the bullish momentum it began last week. It will probably be a volatile week with the release of four interest rate decisions. Let's explore whether our latest market news report reveals notable technical and fundamental changes in the major forex pairs. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The Fed recently cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 5.00% to 4.75%, emphasizing that inflation is moving towards the 2% target but is still slightly elevated. Keep an eye on the new inflation rate on Wednesday. October's labour data was down, mainly due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing. While some mildly positive economic data exists, the bearish bias remains for USD, with short-term interest rate (STIR) market pricing indicating an 88% chance (up from 67%) chance of a 25 bps cut this week. Furthermore, last Friday's NFP print suggested that there is nothing to stop the Fed from cutting rates. https://www.tradingview.com/x/IrMEGvlh/ While the Dixie is still quite bullish, it has retraced slightly from the new key resistance at 108.071. Meanwhile, the key support is far away at 100.157, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. A noteworthy point about the recent Fed meeting is the removal of the line "the committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent." Finally, Powell also clarified that the US elections won't affect their future decisions. The big takeaway is that the Fed will see how fast/far they should cut rates. December 6's jobs data indicates that CPI this week will be important and closely watched by markets. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). STIR markets have indicated an 87% chance of a rate cut on Thursday (also backed by the ECB's Stournaras). Still, a pullback may be due at some point. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Vqia67iQ/ The euro has clearly broken the key support we mentioned previously (1.07774) - the next area of interest is 1.03319. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. The threat of a fresh trade tariff with Trump is hugely influential and may cause the euro to be sold off on tariff fears. Other contributing factors to a pressured euro are bumpy French politics and the prospect of a German snap election. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) recently cut the bank rate from 5% to 4.75% as anticipated. The language indicates they need to be restrictive and a "gradual approach" to policy easing. Governor Bailey also highlighted that rates will probably be brought down cautiously. Furthermore, he forecasted four rate cuts in 2025, which is a tad bit more dovish than market pricing. A big miss in the GDP print on Friday, could be enough to send the GBP lower this week. However, inflation data still remains crucial. https://www.tradingview.com/x/xRFpAmxi/ Like other dollar pairs, GBP/USD has looked bearish for some time. After breaching the key support at 1.26165, the next area of interest is now 1.22994. Meanwhile, the resistance target is far away at 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The BoE sees inflation (its main concern currently) as being stickier for longer. Bailey wishes to see it down to 2%. This is a moderately hawkish hint. Overall, inflation data (and other economic) data will be important for the British pound. Finally, STIR markets indicate an 89% chance (up from 84%) of a rate hold by the BoE next Thursday. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently kept the interest rate the same at the end of October. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention. At the last BoJ interest rate announcement, Ueda stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections weren't realised. Last week, he backed up this sentiment by saying that keeping real interest rates too long for too long would lead to higher inflation, which is a hawkish suggestion. https://www.tradingview.com/x/vN0L5Yjw/ The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. However, there has been a noticeable retracement amid this move). Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The BoJ's tightening stance and inflationary pressures give the yen a bullish sentiment. The central bank wishes to avoid further JPY weakness, with Finance Minister Kato warning against 'excessive FX moves.' We should also keep an eye on US Treasury yields, as rising yields could derail JPY upside. Conversely, any declines in US yields would likely provide a major boost to the yen. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: neutral. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently kept its interest rate unchanged, marking the eighth consecutive hold. They emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation moves toward its target. The RBA also lowered its GDP forecasts while the labour market remains tight. Diarise the upcoming AUD interest rate decision scheduled for Tuesday. https://www.tradingview.com/x/FknikIiD/ The dollar remains dominant against the Aussie, as AUD/USD is very close to testing the key support at 0.63484. Meanwhile, the key resistance level lies far ahead at 0.69426. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA suggests that rate hikes won't be necessary going forward, it hasn't ruled anything out. Governor Bullock recently mentioned that they would act if the economy dropped more than desired. It’s crucial to be data-dependent on the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. Also, the Australian dollar is procyclical, with particular exposure to China's geopolitics. Trump's recent win in the US election means the prospect of trade tariffs with China has increased (potentially causing headwinds for AUD). New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its interest by 50 bps to 4.25% as expected last week, the same as in October. It also signalled further reductions for early next week while remaining confident that inflation will remain in the target zone. However, risks of increased inflation volatility and relative price unpredictability remain. https://www.tradingview.com/x/qq0TjGCr/ The Kiwi has been on a notable downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. NZD/USD is close to the key support at 0.57736, reaffirming this bearish market. Long-term outlook: bearish. Governor Orr indicated in the last RBNZ meeting that a 50 bps cut in February 2025 is possible. So, we can rule out a rate hike, more so with potential trade tariff issues between China and the United States. These can cause headwinds for NZD and AUD. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut in October. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. Markets indicate a likelihood of a cut on Wednesday (maybe another 50 bps). The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. https://www.tradingview.com/x/C8zagcso/ While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. This market is very close to the fresh key resistance at 1.41781. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.34197. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with STIR markets indicating a 68% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this improve. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes - the opposite is true. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) in the Sept. 26 meeting. The Swiss National (SNB) also indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. STIR pricing indicates a 57% chance of a 50 bps cut on Thursday. The October CPI was weak at 0.6% (another poor result as it was for September). Finally, the central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates," further stating that the SNB would be ready to implement this if needed. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. https://www.tradingview.com/x/8TQmHThp/ USD/CHF keeps rising steadily towards the major resistance level at 0.922444, while the major support level is at 0.83326. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). Conclusion In summary: The US dollar remains one of the key currencies to watch. However, the Japanese yen is another considerable option due to its recent bullish momentum. EUR, AUD, CAD and CHF are all the currencies with new upcoming interest rate decisions. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain largely unchanged from the last few weeks. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
this normal riversal is needed before going pullish again
PDD has entered a new growth phase with a notable uptrend. As long as the price does not fall below the key support level of 107.37, the position can be held confidently. This level serves as a crucial threshold for maintaining bullish momentum.
Whales have unloaded their bags to saylor and plebs at 100k I assume they will be interested in buying again between 45k and 39k This will be the ultimate test for Saylor to prove he has diamond hands. Even if we don't dump this hard, it seems good to derisk and wait until markets cool down. Also, government reduction on the strongest currency in the world is bearish for risk assets. I will reduce my trading until good opportunities arise.
Good company, double bottom done, looks like forming a base, once crosses 265, it may start running.
A educational video showing how you must enter a trade after a pullback or when you miss a entry in trade . Also , I have shown how you must hold on a trade after you have achieved your first target Also , I have shown how you can activate settings in trading view which displays how much money you will lose on a stop loss and how much you achieve when you achieve your target
Lucid Group (LCID) has experienced a steep decline since its historic peak on 15th November 2021, when it reached approximately $57 per share. The downtrend, spanning over two years, is best interpreted as a classic ABC corrective structure based on Elliott Wave Theory. However, recent technical signals suggest this prolonged bearish phase may have concluded with the low of $1.93. Elliott Wave Analysis of Lucid Group The ABC correction highlights a significant retracement, with the C-wave marking the final stage of this bearish structure. The $1.93 low could represent the termination of Wave C, potentially setting the stage for a robust recovery. If this analysis holds, Lucid Group could be poised for a sharp reversal, with an initial target of $13 and a long-term potential to reclaim $60. Fibonacci and Confluence Zones From a technical perspective, the $1.93 level aligns with key Fibonacci extensions, reinforcing its validity as a critical support. This confluence supports the idea that the correction is complete, paving the way for an impulsive upward move. Fundamental Outlook While the technical setup is promising, Lucid’s fundamentals will also play a crucial role in its recovery. As a leading electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, Lucid is well-positioned in a burgeoning market. Its innovative designs and expanding global footprint make it a company to watch as the EV sector continues to grow. Risk Management and Key Levels Despite the bullish outlook, risk management remains vital. If the $1.93 level is breached, it would invalidate this scenario, signalling further downside risk. For now, this serves as the critical stop-loss level for any bullish positions. Final Thoughts Lucid Group is at a critical juncture. After a prolonged corrective phase, the stock appears ready to rebound, with technical indicators pointing to significant upside potential. Targets of $13 in the short term and $60 in the long term provide compelling opportunities for investors. For traders looking to capitalise on Lucid’s recovery, close attention to key support and resistance levels will be essential. The EV giant may just be gearing up for an electrifying comeback.
In dieser Videoreihe führen wir eine schnelle Analyse von verschiedenen Kryptowährungen, Aktien oder anderen Assets durch. Du kannst diese Videos nutzen um deine Gedanken mit den unserer abzugleichen, dir eine weitere Meinung einzuholen oder aber auch Ideen für dein Trading. --------------- Wichtig hierbei ist: --------------- Innerhalb von 3 Minuten lässt sich keine vollständige technische Chartanalyse durchführen! Das ganze dient lediglich dazu, die Sichtweisen möglichst kompakt jedoch unvollständig, sprich ohne Berücksichtigung verschiedener notwendiger Schritte dir als Zuschauer zu vermitteln. Eine Chartanalyse sollte immer in Ruhe, nach bestimmten Kriterien und ganzheitlich durchgeführt werden! Die bereitgestellten Informationen stellen keine Finanzanalyse dar.
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) ist ein führender Anbieter von Hochleistungs-Computersystemen und innovativen Lösungen für Cloud-, KI- und Rechenzentrumsumgebungen. Aktuelle Marktsituation: Die Aktie handelt aktuell bei ca. 55 USD, nachdem sie sich deutlich von ihren Tiefständen erholt hat. Eine wichtige Unterstützung befindet sich bei 25 USD, die dem relativen Tief vom 20. November entspricht und die im Jahr 2023 mehrmals getestet wurde. Der SuperTrend-Indikator signalisiert derzeit eine bullische Tendenz, da der Kurs über der Trendlinie liegt. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Der RSI notiert bei 63, was eine starke Aufwärtsdynamik signalisiert. Der Indikator nähert sich der überkauften Zone, was darauf hindeuten könnte, dass die Kaufkraft bald abnimmt. Aktuell deutet der RSI jedoch auf ein positives Momentum hin. MACD: Der MACD zeigt ein deutliches Kaufsignal, da die MACD-Linie über der Signallinie liegt und die Histogrammbalken sich weiter im positiven Territorium befinden. Technische Analyse: Die technische Analyse notiert bei +0,11 und zeigt eine überwiegend positive Dynamik. Das steigende Histogramm signalisiert, dass die Aufwärtsbewegung an Kraft gewinnt. Quartalsergebnisse: Laut Earnings Whispers wird Super Micro Computer, Inc. voraussichtlich am Mittwoch, dem 19. Februar 2025, ihre Quartalsergebnisse bekannt geben. Bitte beachten Sie, dass dieser Termin vorläufig ist und sich ändern kann. Für die aktuellsten Informationen empfiehlt es sich, regelmäßig die offizielle Investor-Relations-Seite von Super Micro Computer, Inc. zu konsultieren.