XRP is looking for a support area after recent growth. All Altcoin looks sh*t.
? TOSH/USD Analysis: Fresh Demand Zone on M15 – Awaiting Bullish Confirmation ? Why is this setup interesting? ✅ Fresh Demand Zone created on M15 at 0.00070 → Potential strong buy pressure ? ✅ Trade not confirmed yet → Waiting for a bullish signal h1? ✅ Confluence with Price Action and Market Structure ? ? Key Levels & Scenarios: ? Demand Zone (daily Support): 0.00070 ? Potential Confirmation: Wick rejection + Bullish close ? Target Levels: ? ATH ? Supply & Demand Strategy Applied: Fresh Demand Zone → Strong bounce potential ✅ Waiting for bullish confirmation (Engulfing candle, wick rejection, high volume) ? Optimized Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3 ? ? Follow me for more live market analysis
lets see how this plays out we are simply waiting for price to tap into our "FVG" (FAIR VALUE GAP) before we look to take long positions on the trade
Just practicing charting. Invalid H&S Bottom on PLTR that would create a measured move to $100 at breakout of the neckline. Unfortuantely, I do not believe this is a valid H&S Bottom. PLTR is at ATH and looks to be searching for the next level of resistance. At this point, macro factors will likely play the most significant role in the direction of PLTR but if we hold $80/$75 support I am long on PLTR. If we lose $80 and subsequently $75, I tend to be more bearish.
Rückblick: Unsere letzte Einschätzung In unserem vorherigen Artikel hatten wir betont, dass sich ETH in einer entscheidenden Phase befand. Der Kurs bewegte sich innerhalb eines symmetrischen Dreiecks und testete mehrfach die Widerstandszone zwischen 3.390 USD und 3.560 USD, die als potenzieller Short-Einstiegspunkt identifiziert wurde. Das Risiko eines Bruchs nach unten war aufgrund der bärischen Divergenzen im RSI und des hohen Verkaufsdrucks real. Aktuelle Situation: Bearischer Ausbruch Das heute präsentierte Chart-Update bestätigt unsere bärischen Erwartungen: Wichtiger Break unter die 3.020 USD-Marke: ETH hat das Dreieck nach unten verlassen und dabei den psychologisch und technisch signifikanten Support bei 3.020 USD durchbrochen. Dieser Bereich fungierte zuvor als starke Unterstützung und wird nun zum Widerstandsbereich. Starker Abverkauf: Aktuell notiert der Kurs bei 2.922 USD, was einem Rückgang von rund 5 % innerhalb weniger Stunden entspricht. Der Verkaufsdruck ist deutlich zu erkennen. Bearische Dynamik im RSI: Der Relative Strength Index (RSI) befindet sich bei 28,49, was auf einen stark überverkauften Zustand hindeutet. Dennoch ist dies nicht zwingend ein Kaufsignal, da Märkte in Abwärtstrends häufig länger überverkauft bleiben. Bollinger-Bänder: Der Kurs hat das untere Bollinger-Band durchbrochen und zeigt weiterhin keine Anzeichen einer Erholung. Eine Fortsetzung der Abwärtsbewegung ist wahrscheinlich. Wichtige Unterstützungszonen im Blick Für Trader und Analysten ist es nun entscheidend, die nächsten potenziellen Unterstützungsbereiche zu identifizieren: 2.800 USD: Diese Marke dient als erste potenzielle Auffangzone und hat in der Vergangenheit bereits als stabiler Support fungiert. 2.500 USD: Sollte der Verkaufsdruck anhalten, könnte ETH diesen Bereich erneut testen. 2.200 USD: Ein weiterer markanter Unterstützungsbereich, der eine massive Kaufzone darstellen könnte. Mögliche Szenarien Bärisches Szenario (wahrscheinlicher): Der Break unter 3.020 USD deutet auf eine Fortsetzung des Abwärtstrends hin. Sollte der Kurs unter 2.800 USD fallen, könnte eine Beschleunigung des Abverkaufs bis in den Bereich von 2.500 USD erfolgen. Bullisches Szenario: Eine kurzfristige Erholung zurück über 3.020 USD wäre notwendig, um einen Fakeout zu bestätigen und wieder bullische Impulse zu setzen. Solange dies nicht geschieht, bleibt die Marktstruktur klar bärisch.
Die heutige Analyse konzentriert sich besonders auf die ATR-Berechnung zur präziseren Festlegung von Stop-Loss-Leveln, um Fehlsignale zu vermeiden. Zudem wird die Markttechnik sowie die Elliott-Wellen-Analyse ausführlicher behandelt, um eine bessere strukturelle Einschätzung des Marktes zu ermöglichen. 1️⃣ Markttechnische Analyse ? Trend- und Strukturbetrachtung Langfristiger Trend: Bullisch (höhere Hochs & höhere Tiefs auf Wochenbasis) Mittelfristiger Trend: Konsolidierung zwischen 70 und 75 Punkten Kurzfristiger Trend: Erste Anzeichen einer Umkehr Nach einer mehrwöchigen Konsolidierung zwischen 72,520 und 74,270 Punkten testet der Markt erneut die Widerstandszone. Ein nachhaltiger Bruch über die Hochs könnte eine neue Impulsbewegung auslösen. ? Wichtige Unterstützungs- & Widerstandsmarken ? Unterstützungen: ✅ 72,520 – Lokale Unterstützung ✅ 71,655 – Wichtige Wochen-Unterstützung ✅ 70,800 – Letztes markantes Tief ? Widerstände: ✅ 73,385 – Entscheidendes Breakout-Level ✅ 74,270 – Letztes markantes Hoch ✅ 75,385 – Starker Widerstand aus vorherigen Hochs ? Technische Indikatoren ? ATR (14): 1,85 – Spiegelt die aktuelle Schwankungsbreite wider ? MACD: Leichte bullische Divergenz, noch ohne klares Kaufsignal ? RSI (14): Notiert bei 54,3 – kein überkauftes oder überverkauftes Signal ? Bollinger Bänder: Preis bewegt sich in der oberen Bandbreite 2️⃣ Elliott-Wellen-Analyse Die Wellenstruktur deutet darauf hin, dass sich WTI aktuell in einer laufenden Korrekturwelle 4 befindet. Eine Fortsetzung von Welle 5 könnte kurzfristig erfolgen. ? Langfristige Wellenstruktur (1D & 1W) ✅ Welle 3 endete bei ~77,50 ✅ Welle 4 testet aktuell das 50%-Retracement bei 73,205 ✅ Welle 5 könnte in Richtung 77,00 – 79,00 führen ? Bullisches Szenario: Breakout über 73,385 als Bestätigung für eine Fortsetzung der Welle 5 Zielbereich: 77,00 – 79,00 ? Bärisches Szenario: Bruch unter 72,520 führt zu einem tieferen Rücksetzer Potenzielle Korrekturziele: 71,655 – 70,800 3️⃣ ATR-basierte Stop-Loss-Berechnung Da die ATR (Average True Range) die durchschnittliche Marktvolatilität misst, nutzen wir sie zur Berechnung sinnvoller Stop-Loss-Level. ? Aktuelle ATR-Werte: ✔ 4H ATR: 0,97 ✔ 1D ATR: 2,31 ✔ 1W ATR: 4,90 ? Stop-Loss-Setups nach ATR ? Strategie: 1,5x ATR als dynamischer Stop-Loss ? Intraday-Trades (15min/1H) SL: 1,5 × 4H ATR ≈ 1,46 Beispiel: Long bei 73,205 → SL bei 71,75 ? Swing-Trades (4H/Daily) SL: 1,5 × 1D ATR ≈ 3,46 Beispiel: Long bei 73,205 → SL bei 69,75 ? Langfristige Trades (1D/Wochenbasis) SL: 1,5 × 1W ATR ≈ 7,35 Beispiel: Long bei 73,205 → SL bei 65,85 4️⃣ Setup für Montag, 03. Februar 2025 ? LONG-Setup (prozyklisch) ✅ Einstieg: Über 73,385 ✅ Ziel: 77,00 – 79,00 ✅ Stop-Loss: 71,75 (1,5 × 4H ATR) ✅ Bestätigung: Volumenanstieg über Widerstand ? SHORT-Setup (antizyklisch) ❌ Einstieg: Unter 72,520 ❌ Ziel: 70,800 ❌ Stop-Loss: 73,385 5️⃣ Prognose für den 03. Februar 2025 ? Szenario 1: Bullischer Ausbruch Ein nachhaltiger Anstieg über 73,385 bestätigt das bullische Szenario. Zielbereich: 75,00 – 77,00 Voraussetzung: Steigendes Volumen & Bestätigung durch Indikatoren ? Szenario 2: Bärische Korrektur Ein Bruch unter 72,520 signalisiert eine tiefere Korrektur. Potenzielles Ziel: 70,800 – 71,655 Dies würde eine Verlängerung der Welle 4 signalisieren. ? Risikohinweis Diese Analyse richtet sich ausschließlich an professionelle Trader mit Erfahrung in der Markttechnik. Der Handel mit gehebelten Produkten birgt erhebliche Risiken bis hin zum Totalverlust. Nur Kapital verwenden, dessen Verlust akzeptabel ist. ? Disclaimer Diese Analyse ist keine Anlageberatung, sondern dient ausschließlich informativen Zwecken. Jeder Trader handelt auf eigenes Risiko. ? © 2025 ChartWise Insights – Alle Rechte vorbehalten.
? Entry Points: Buy Zone: $5.00 - $5.30 ? Stop Loss: Set at: $4.85 ? Take Profit Levels: Primary Target: ~$7.50 Secondary Target: $8.75 NFA
On the Daily chart very noticeable Double Top ~$107k. Certainly, short term move towards 93k. Afterwards probably the decision to make that will change the outlook of the next 1-2 years. $85-86k could mean as first support. Then with the break of it, reaching low 70s and high $60s (~530 day downtrend will be near complete). If it were to continue tumble close to $55k (which I don't think it will), I am personally not going to hasitate for a long time to grab as much as I possibly can. I'm convinced we'll be more than alright after this big Bear Trend.
Stop Loss and Take Profit represent the fundamental boundaries of every trade, acting as the cornerstones of risk management in trading. While both are important, Stop Loss carries particular significance and is considered more crucial than Take Profit. In manual trading, implementing a Stop Loss is absolutely essential, whereas Take Profit settings remain optional, offering traders more flexibility in managing their profitable positions. Traders can employ various methods to set their SL levels, and while specific trading systems often dictate their own rules, several universal approaches have proven effective. Let's examine one of the most common methods. ? On the Local Extrema This method offers two primary variations. The first involves placing your Stop Loss relative to the signal candle. For buy positions, you would set the Stop Loss several pips below the minimum of the bullish signal candlestick. Conversely, for sell positions, you would place it several pips above the maximum of the bearish signal candlestick. https://www.tradingview.com/x/3OWWdUj7/ The second variation focuses on the last local extreme point rather than the signal candle itself. When opening a buy position, you would position your Stop Loss a few points below the most recent local minimum. For sell positions, you would place it above the most recent local maximum. https://www.tradingview.com/x/WG4WRfJb/ However, traders should be aware of a significant drawback to these approaches: their predictability. Market makers and experienced traders can easily identify these common Stop Loss placement patterns on their charts. They often exploit this knowledge by deliberately pushing prices to levels where they anticipate a concentration of Stop Loss orders. After triggering these stops and forcing smaller traders to close their positions at a loss, they frequently allow the price to resume its original direction. This practice, known as "stop hunting," particularly affects retail traders who rely on these conventional placement methods. ? Setting Stop Loss by Key Price Levels When using price levels for Stop Loss placement, traders can take advantage of significant order accumulation points that are naturally more resistant to manipulation. This method requires placing the Stop Loss a few points beyond the key level - below when buying and above when selling. https://www.tradingview.com/x/oxEo0CBm/ A key advantage of this approach is that it typically positions the Stop Loss well beyond the last local minimum (for buy trades) or maximum (for sell trades). This strategic placement helps protect positions from premature exits that might occur with simpler Stop Loss methods. ? Technical Indicator-Based Stop Loss The ATR or Parabolic SAR indicator offers a straightforward approach to Stop Loss placement that appeals particularly to newer traders. Its clear visual markers provide explicit guidance for Stop Loss positioning, with traders simply placing their stops at the SAR marker level. https://www.tradingview.com/x/FP2UvPEl/ This method offers an interesting advantage: traders can manually adjust their Stop Loss with each new candle formation, creating a flexible alternative to traditional trailing stops. However, like extrema-based stops, indicator-based placement can be predictable and potentially vulnerable to market manipulation. ? Stop Loss Based on Fundamentals Rather than relying solely on pre-set Stop Loss levels, fundamental analysis often guides manual exit decisions. Prudent traders might close positions before significant market events, such as: • At the end of the American trading session when market activity naturally declines • Shortly before major economic news releases that could trigger substantial price movements Some traders incorporate fundamental factors into their Stop Loss calculations. For instance, they might set stops based on average daily price movements for specific currency pairs - like using a 70-pip Stop Loss for FX:EURUSD trades, reflecting that pair's typical daily range. https://www.tradingview.com/x/FXD9Xhal/ ? Advanced Technical Stop Loss Strategies Beyond basic indicator-based stops, traders can employ more sophisticated technical analysis tools for exit trades. These might include: • Moving average crossovers • Stochastic oscillator overbought/oversold signals These approaches often require active management, with traders monitoring indicators in real-time and executing manual exits when their chosen signals appear. https://www.tradingview.com/x/RWzeLaah/ ? Psychological Aspects of Stop Loss Management The psychological impact of Stop Loss execution presents a significant challenge for many traders. Even when a Stop Loss performs its intended function of limiting potential losses, traders may experience: • Feelings of personal failure • Diminished confidence in their trading system • General market skepticism • Emotional distress after multiple consecutive stops ? Avoiding Mental Stop Losses While some traders prefer "mental" stops over actual platform orders, this approach carries significant risks: • Technical failures could prevent manual exits • Emotional barriers might delay necessary exits • Small losses can balloon into significant account drawdowns To protect against these risks, traders should always implement their mental stops as actual platform orders, ensuring systematic risk management regardless of market conditions or psychological pressures. https://www.tradingview.com/x/JWJNXEmA/ This structured approach to Stop Loss placement combines technical precision with psychological awareness, helping traders develop both the skills and mindset needed for successful risk management. ? Additional Position Management Methods In trading, while Stop Loss and Take Profit orders form the foundation of exit strategies, several sophisticated techniques can help traders optimize their position management. Let's explore these methods that go beyond basic exit orders. ⚫️ Breakeven Stop Adjustment One of the most psychologically powerful position management techniques involves moving your Stop Loss to the trade entry point, effectively eliminating downside risk while maintaining upside potential. This strategy becomes particularly valuable when price movement has demonstrated strong momentum in your favor. The conventional approach suggests adjusting to breakeven when the price has moved in your favor by double the initial Stop Loss distance. For instance, consider a trade with a 20-pip Stop Loss and a 60-pip Take Profit target. When the position shows 40 pips of profit (twice the initial risk), moving the Stop Loss to the entry point ensures you won't lose money on the trade while still allowing for further gains. ⚫️ Dynamic Risk Management with Trailing Stops Trailing Stops represent an evolution in risk management, allowing traders to protect accumulated profits while maintaining exposure to continued favorable price movement. This technique dynamically adjusts your Stop Loss level as the price moves in your favor, essentially "trailing" behind the price at a predetermined distance. ⚫️ Strategic Partial Position Closure Traders often face a dilemma when price approaches their Take Profit level: should they close the entire position or attempt to capture additional gains? The partial closure strategy offers a balanced solution. When market conditions suggest potential for extended movement beyond your initial target, consider closing a portion of your position (typically 70-80%) at the original Take Profit level while allowing the remainder to pursue more ambitious targets. https://www.tradingview.com/x/0eGVdUp9/ This approach becomes particularly relevant when trading near significant technical levels. For example, if you're holding a long position with a Take Profit set below a major resistance level, and technical indicators suggest this level might break, closing most of your position secures profits while maintaining exposure to potential breakout gains. ? Conclusion While numerous exit strategies exist in trading, successful execution requires more than just mechanical application of techniques. True trading mastery emerges from the ability to recognize market context, understand both technical and fundamental factors, maintain emotional equilibrium, and make flexible decisions within established risk parameters. The journey of becoming a skilled trader involves developing judgment about when to apply different exit strategies. This wisdom comes through experience in the markets, careful observation of price action, and a deep understanding of how different approaches work in varying market conditions. Traders gradually build their expertise by starting with fundamental concepts and progressively incorporating more sophisticated position management techniques into their trading approach. Traders, If you liked this educational post?, give it a boost ? and drop a comment ?
Holding the 50 EMA support on the daily chart. A close below could bring us to test January lows around $90K before any potential bounce. For now, we are expecting a bounce by daily close. Bulls must show up here to save the day. I'll be watching these levels closely over the next 7 days.