XLM has broken its previous low, raising the question: where is the next major support zone? To determine this, we will focus on fibonacci, moving averages, and order blocks to find a high-probability bounce area for a potential long position. ? Fibonacci Retracement – Locating the Next Support Level Using the Fibonacci retracement tool from the low at $0.0757 to the high at $0.6374: 0.618 Fib Retracement → $0.2903 (Already Lost) ❌ Current Price: $0.248 Next Major Fib Level – 0.786 Retracement at $0.1959 Since the 0.786 Fib level is a key retracement point, we need further confluence factors to confirm its strength as a potential support zone. ? Confluence Factors Strengthening the Support Zone ($0.1959 – $0.17179) 1:1 Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension High: $0.6374 A: $0.3179 B: $0.515 1:1 extension aligns at $0.1902 → Strong confirmation near 0.786 Fib retracement ✅ Wave A-B Fibonacci Extension 1.618 Fib extension from wave A to B is at $0.1875 → Aligns with the 1:1 trend-based extension ✅ Daily Support Level at $0.1962 Sits almost exactly at the 0.786 retracement ($0.1959) ✅ 21 EMA & 21 SMA for Moving Average Support 21 EMA at $0.20338 21 SMA at $0.17187 Order Block Between $0.2208 – $0.1964 Demand area aligns with the major support zone ✅ Key Takeaway: A high-probability support zone is now identified between $0.1959 and $0.17179, with multiple confluences suggesting a strong potential bounce. Trade Plan – Scaling Into a Long Position Given the strong confluence at the support zone, the best approach is scaling into a long trade. DCA Entry Strategy: Start scaling in at $0.22, as an order block exists between $0.2208 – $0.1964 Main focus remains on the support zone ($0.1959 – $0.17179) Stop Loss: Below the 21 SMA ($0.17187) for invalidation Take Profit Levels for Optimal R:R: First TP at $0.25 → Resistance area Next TP at $0.30 → Strong psychological & resistance level R:R Approximation: 2:1 R:R for first TP ($0.25) 3:1+ R:R if targeting $0.30 High-Probability Support Zone Identified ✔ Multiple confluences confirm a strong support zone at $0.1959 – $0.17179 ✔ Scaling into a long from $0.22 to $0.17179, with stop loss below the 21 SMA ($0.17187) ✔ Take profit levels set at $0.25 & $0.30 for a solid R:R trade Alternative bullish scenario: A reclaim of lost key low at $2526 with rising volume could signal a long opportunity, only on confirmation. ? Will XLM bounce from this key support? Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ??
Bounced each time for consequent gains around 3.75, so I expect the same now placed a SL a bit wide, a good fuel could be the 2.0 update of Polkadot but didn hear any news about it to be honest In the other hand, lower would means I'll quit this asset for a mid/long term hehe, Cheers
Power Of Three. Expecting retracement during the 3PM Macro after a large down day and took out Daily Low and Daily FVG.
The intricate relationship between the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin continues to be a focal point of analysis within the cryptocurrency market. While a weakening dollar can indeed bolster Bitcoin's bull case, a confluence of other metrics necessitates a cautious outlook. The dynamic interplay between these factors creates a complex and volatile environment for Bitcoin. The Dollar's Decline and Bitcoin's Ascent: • A weakening U.S. dollar often strengthens the appeal of alternative assets, including Bitcoin. This is because Bitcoin, perceived by some as a hedge against inflation and the devaluation of fiat currencies, becomes relatively more attractive when the dollar's purchasing power diminishes. • This inverse correlation stems from Bitcoin's nature as a decentralized, limited-supply asset, contrasting with the potentially inflationary nature of fiat currencies.1 When investors lose confidence in the dollar, they may turn to Bitcoin as a store of value. "High-Stakes Game of Chicken" with Central Banks: • The phrase "Bitcoin playing a high-stakes game of chicken" with central banks aptly captures the ongoing tension between decentralized cryptocurrencies and traditional financial institutions. • Central banks wield significant influence over monetary policy, and their decisions can have a profound impact on the value of fiat currencies and, consequently, on the cryptocurrency market.2 • The potential for regulatory crackdowns or the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) poses a considerable risk to Bitcoin's long-term prospects. • Conversely, if central banks where to greatly devalue their currencies, it would greatly boost the Bitcoin bull case. Concerning Metrics and Cautious Outlook: • Despite the potential benefits of a weakening dollar, other metrics warrant a cautious outlook. • Market volatility remains a significant concern. Bitcoin's price fluctuations can be extreme, making it a risky investment for those with low risk tolerance. • Regulatory uncertainty continues to cast a shadow over the cryptocurrency market. Governments worldwide are grappling with the challenge of regulating cryptocurrencies, and any adverse regulatory developments could trigger a sharp sell-off. • Also, the overall global economic climate, with the potential for recessions, and geopolitical instability, add layers of uncertainty to the market. • Investor sentiment is also a huge factor. While there are times of great excitement, and "Fear of missing out"(FOMO), there are also times of great fear, that can cause large sell offs. Key Considerations: • Macroeconomic Factors: The broader economic environment, including inflation, interest rates, and economic growth, plays a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin's price trajectory. • Regulatory Landscape: The evolving regulatory landscape remains a key factor that could greatly effect Bitcoin's price. • Investor Sentiment: The psychological factors that drive investor behavior, such as fear and greed, can have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price. • Technological Developments: Advancements in blockchain technology and the adoption of cryptocurrencies by mainstream institutions could provide a boost to Bitcoin's long-term prospects. In essence, while the weakening U.S. dollar may provide a favorable tailwind for Bitcoin, investors must remain vigilant and consider the multitude of other factors that could influence its price. The "high-stakes game of chicken" with central banks underscores the inherent uncertainty of the cryptocurrency market, and a cautious outlook is warranted.
? $BTC/USDT Market Update – Double Top Breakdown & Key Support Level Welcome to today’s analysis! Let’s break down the Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) chart, focusing on the double top pattern and key levels. ⸻ ? Overview: Double Top Formation & Breakdown ? CRYPTOCAP:BTC has formed a double top pattern and has broken the neckline (yellow level). ? Current Scenario: • The double top pattern suggests a bearish move, with a projected target at the green support level. • The green support zone aligns with the previous ATH from the last bull run, making it a key area for potential price stabilization. • If buyers step in at this support, we could see a bounce and possible bullish reversal. ⸻ ? Key Levels to Watch ? Neckline (Broken Support): Confirmed breakdown, acting as new resistance. ? Support Zone: Green Level (Previous ATH, potential stabilization area). ⸻ ?️ Trade Scenarios ? Bullish Scenario (Support Holds & Price Bounces Up) • If CRYPTOCAP:BTC stabilizes at the green support, buyers may step in, leading to a potential recovery move. • Confirmation of bullish strength could come from a higher low formation at this level. ? Bearish Scenario (Break Below Green Support) • If CRYPTOCAP:BTC fails to hold the green support zone, further downside could occur, potentially testing lower support areas. • A confirmed breakdown below this level would signal continued bearish momentum. ⸻ ? Conclusion CRYPTOCAP:BTC has broken the neckline of a double top pattern, and its projected target aligns with the green support zone (previous ATH level). This area is critical for potential price stabilization—if buyers defend it, we could see a rebound and bullish continuation. However, if it breaks down, further losses may follow.
Strong rejection from support. A good pullback expected in FRED:SP500
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