Markets have been playing a bit of a ping-pong game since the start of the year. Uncertainty is never a good world for financial markets, so it was this Friday. In the same week, the S&P 500 reached a fresh, new all time highest level at 6.148 and a significant pull-back on Friday. One of the extremely spooky works since recently are tariffs, which a new US Administration is using too frequently, for the taste of investors. The S&P 500 lost 1,71% at Friday's trading session, while other US indices were also somewhere in this range. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was published during the week, showing not some happy figures about current consumer sentiment. In addition, consumers are expecting further increase in inflation, higher from previous releases. The 5 years inflation expectations currently stands at 3,5%, for which analysts are noting, is the highest level since 1995. The highest contributors to index drop on Friday were tech companies, which are currently ones which hold the highest participation. Other sectors were also affected, however, those related to major supplies were the ones that gained during the week. The consumer sector, healthcare and utilities were the ones that investors bought the most. It was sort of a move toward basics. As analysts are noting, the defensive sectors are the ones which gain during times of fears on future economic growth. The week ahead will be a sensitive one for financial markets, as PCE data are scheduled for a release. The start of the week might bring some relaxation from Friday's negative sentiment, however, it will not be a sign that the positive sentiment is back, but only a sort of short term positioning for PCE data. Depending on final PCE data, a higher move could be expected toward either side. The higher market sensitivity will continue as long as uncertainties are existing either through trade tariffs, or through inflation data.
4h time frame - Entry: $1.1 TP: $2.65 SL: $0.897 RR: 7.64 - (1) ONDO is building a continuation structure with a triangle pattern. (2) Triangle bottom is around $1.1, which is our entry opportunity. (3) Fibonacci provides first target at $2.65 and final target at $3.7 (4) Stop loss once going below $0.897
Potential for a bearish pullback on the SILVER which could lead to a price movement towards the support level at 31.600. SELL zone from 32600
Figures for US Building Permits in January were posted at the level 0,1% higher for the month in January, while the Housing Starts dropped by -9,8% in January. Existing Home sales in January dropped by -4,9% on the monthly basis, much higher from forecasted -1,7%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final for February was at the level of 64,7 modestly lower from market forecast of 67,8. At the same time, inflation expectations were increased. The majority of US consumers are expecting inflation at the level of 4,3% while five years inflation expectations were increased to the level of 3,5%, from 3,2% posted previously. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for February in the Euro Zone reached the level of 24,2 and generally was in line with the market consensus. The same indicator for Germany was standing at the level of 26,0 and was higher from 20 expected by the market. The Producers Price Index in January in Germany was standing at 0,5% on a yearly basis, and -0,1% for the month. The Consumer Confidence in the Euro Zone in February was at the level of -13,6 a bit better from market estimate of -14,4. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for February in Germany was at the level of 46,1, and a bit higher from market estimate of 45,5. The same indicator for the Euro Zone was at 47,3 also a bit higher from estimated 47. Without official release of data which would point to inflation in the US, the eurusd currency pair was traded in a relatively short range during the previous week. The week started by testing the 1,05 resistance line. Without the strength to break it, the currency pair reverted a bit toward the downside, till the lowest weekly level of 1,04, where the support line lies. At the weekend it reverted again back toward the 1,05, but again without success to break this level. The currency pair ended the week at 1,045. The RSI is still moving above the level of 50, implying that the market is still more oriented toward the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days is modestly slowing down its divergence from MA200, however, there is still a high distance between lines, in which sense, the potential cross is still not in store. The Fed's favourite inflation gauge, the PCE indicator is scheduled for a release during the week ahead. Considering current market high sensitivity on inflation data, a higher volatility might be expected. At this moment, charts are showing that eurusd is traded to some extent sideways, between levels of 1,05 and 1,04. If the market manages to break the support line at 1,04 during the week ahead, then it could be expected to move toward the 1,03. In case that 1,04 manages to hold, then the currency pair will revert back toward higher grounds, and probably will surpass the 1,05 resistance line. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Ifo Business Climate for February in Germany, Inflation rate for January in the EuroZone, GDP Growth Rate final for Q4 in Germany, GfK Consumer Confidence for March in Germany, Retail Sales in Germany in January, Unemployment rate in Germany in February, USD: Durable Goods Orders for January, GDP Growth Rate second estimate for Q4, PCE Price Index preliminary for February, Personal Income and Personal Spending
Dear Traders, Daily Trend line broken , i expect price will be start correction To Trendline ( Pullback) and Downtrend will be continue , to 145-147 If you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content." Regards, Alireza!
Another week in a row, BTC continued to move in a channel which indicates sort of side trading. It seems that investors are still not ready to choose the trading side, in which sense, BTC continued to move in a range between $96K and $98K. There were short attempts to head toward the $100K but without success, and also toward the $94K at one moment, but it was also without success. A range still managed to hold, but the question is for how long it will manage to hold in the future period? The RSI is showing exactly the mood of the market. By continuously moving below the level of 50, it shows that the market is not ready to take action on either side. At the same time, moving averages of 50 and 200 days are showing two parallel lines, without any indication that convergence might start anytime soon. The cross is certainly not in the store for some time in the future. In technical analysis, a move within a channel is the indication that the market will soon break the channel toward one side. At this moment, it could not be anticipated whether the break will occur toward the up or down side. Another fact evident on charts is that the GETTEX:92K holds as a strong support line. Currently, there are two scenarios which could develop on charts. One scenario includes a break toward the downside and the level of $92K. The second scenario would include a break toward the upside, where the first stop might be the level of $100K. Which scenario will prevail, we will see in the coming period.
Last week in the news There are currently several words which shape investors sentiment, including trade tariffs, inflation, slower economic growth. All three words are active for come time, which impact market moves during the previous week. Fears of inflation, after a release of Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday, pushed the US equities strongly toward the downside. The S&P 500 dropped by 1,7% within a day, after reaching the new all time highest level. The index closed the week at the level of 6. 013. Investors were looking more at the safe-haven assets, in which sense, the price of gold again reached the new highest level at 2.954, while the 10Y US Treasury benchmark sharply dropped to the level of 4,43%. The crypto market was a bit traded aside, where BTC continues to move within a channel between $ 96K-$ 98K levels. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final for February was the one that shook the markets. Surprisingly lower data from estimated, were the ones which supported investors fears from future inflation. The Index level of 64,7 was lower from expected 67,8. On the other hand, inflation expectation data were the ones that surprised investors. Namely, US consumers are expecting inflation at the levels of 4,3%, while five years inflation expectations were increased to the level of 3,5% from 3,2% posted during previous releases. Investors were not at all happy with such inflation development, not even as an expectation, which showed by a significant drop in US equity indexes. A lot of news attention during the previous week was on the earnings report of Berkshire Hathaway. The most famous investor on the market, Warren Buffet had stockpiled more cash for another quarter through sale of stocks. As per reports, its cash position currently stands at $334B. Regardless of this move, the Buffet noted that Berkshire Hathaway will always prefer stocks over cash, without too much further explanation. During his previous comments, he sort of criticized the market, calling it too expensive at this moment and only a few buying opportunities. Nevertheless, shares of Berkshire Hathaway continue to gain in value, adding 5% from the start of this year. At the same time, Reuters reported that Buffets company will most probably increase stake in five Japanese trading houses, which he currently holds in portfolio, including Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo. As of the week-end a news hit the market that crypto exchanger Bybit was under a huge cyber attack, where estimated, $1,5 billion worth of ether was stolen. As news is reporting, an entity from North Korea was suspected. The stolen coins were then transferred into BTC. Although Bybit reacted promptly, still, the exchanger faced significant withdrawal requests from its clients. Crypto market cap There was another volatile week on the crypto market. After significant gains two weeks ago, the previous week was in a mood of corrections. The crypto coins were traded in a mixed manner. There were almost equal numbers of both coins which finished the week in red and in green. However, total crypto market capitalization decreased by 1% on a weekly level, losing total $30B in value. Daily trading volumes were modestly increased to the level of $239B on a daily basis, from $170B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -2%, with $80B outflow of funds. Despite the both winners and losers during the week, still, the crypto market ended the week with a total loss of $30B on a weekly basis. The coin with highest participation, BTC, was traded modestly down by 0,9%, losing total $17B in value. On the opposite side was ETH, who managed to gain $ 10B in value, increasing it by 3,2% w/w. Other significant movers in nominal terms were XRP, which was traded down by 6%, dropping its market cap by $9,8B. Solana was also traded lower, dropping by 10,7% w/w or $10,1B. Another coins with significant drop was DOGE, who managed to decrease its cap by $ 4B or 9,9%. Among gainers Maker should be especially mentioned, as this coin increased its value by 55% within a single week. At the same time, this coin increased the number of its coins in circulation by 1,9%. Several of other weekly winners were ZCash, with a surge of 7,9% w/w, while a portion of other smaller altcoins managed to gain below 1% on a weekly level. When coins in circulation are in question, Maker was already mentioned with its increase of 1,9%. At the same time, ZCash decreased its circulating coins by 2,7%. Filecoin added 0,8% of new coins to the market, while IOTAs increase was 0,6%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market was traded lower compared to the end of the previous week. BTC futures were traded around 3% lower, while ETH futures ended the week around 4% lower. BTC futures maturing in December this year closed the week at the level of $101.875, and those maturing a year later at the level of $111.380. Despite the drop, it is still positive that investors are perceiving the BTC price at levels higher from $100K in the future period. ETH futures maturing in December 2025 were last traded at the level of $2.807, and those maturing in December 2026 closed the trading week at $3.017.
This week, OANDA:XAUUSD market was consolidating rather than trending, with momentum only visible on Tuesday. Despite this, the weekly candle closed bullish, marking our eighth consecutive bullish weekly candle. On the daily timeframe, the last three candles are doji candles, showing consolidation around the previous week's high level. This suggests the overall bullish momentum is at least on pause. The price closed below the previous week's low, a pattern that repeated this week. Despite this, we've formed an all-time high level, and the price action appears to be forming a head and shoulders pattern on the 1H timeframe. However, this pattern could easily transform into a bullish flag pattern if the price reaches the 2950 level. Given these factors, I believe the market may push to higher levels one last time before a deep correction occurs. If the market reacts positively to the psychological level and upward trendline, there's a strong chance the upward momentum will continue. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad ??
Potential for a bearish pullback on the GBPJPY H3 which could lead to a price movement towards the support level at 186. SELL zone from 189.200
This chart combines #Bitcoin price across it's entire lifecycle with a new divergence indicator I created for global M2 money supply. #M2 refers to a broad measure of the total money supply in an economy; an increase of which, is a harbinger of a new flows into assets such as equities and crypto. The lower panel displays a classic #RSI (relative strength indication) albeit applied to the aggregate of the M2 money supply for all major economies in the world. I've spent a number of years fine tuning a 'divergence' indicator for RSI which I'm now able to successfully apply to this GM2 RSI signal. The net result when applied to the Bitcoin chart are the clusters of arrows that occur at points of divergence detection. As is evident from the chart these align extremely well with Bitcoin cycle bottoms and serve to complement the existing indicators that I use for bottom detection.