?Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!? Dear Money Makers & Thieves, ? ??? Based on ?Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis?, here is our master plan to heist the GBP/JPY "The Guppy" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. ??Be wealthy and safe trade.??? Entry ? : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (193.400) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss ?: Thief SL placed at 191.600 (swing Trade) Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target ?: 199.000 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note ? : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money ?. ??️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: GBP/JPY "The Guppy" Forex Market market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors. ? Fundamental Analysis 1. Economic Growth: The UK's economic growth is expected to slow down due to Brexit uncertainty, while Japan's economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace. 2. Inflation: The UK's inflation rate is expected to remain above the Bank of England's target, while Japan's inflation rate is expected to remain low. 3. Interest Rates: The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates steady, while the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its accommodative monetary policy. ? Macroeconomic Analysis 1. Trade Balance: The UK's trade balance is expected to remain in deficit, while Japan's trade balance is expected to remain in surplus. 2. GDP Growth: The UK's GDP growth rate is expected to slow down to 1.2% in 2023, while Japan's GDP growth rate is expected to remain at 1.1%. 3. Fiscal Policy: The UK's fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary, while Japan's fiscal policy is expected to remain neutral. ? COT Analysis 1. Non-Commercial Traders: Net long 20,019 contracts (increase of 5,011 contracts from last week) 2. Commercial Traders: Net short 15,011 contracts (decrease of 2,011 contracts from last week) 3. Non-Reportable Positions: Net long 8,011 contracts (increase of 1,011 contracts from last week) ? Sentimental Analysis 1. Trader Sentiment: 52% of traders are bullish on GBP/JPY, while 40% are bearish and 8% are neutral. 2. Investor Sentiment: The GBP/JPY sentiment index shows that 48% of investors are bullish, while 32% are bearish. 3. Hedge Fund Sentiment: Hedge funds have increased their long positions in GBP/JPY, with a net long exposure of 15%. ? Institutional Trader Sentiment 1. Goldman Sachs: Net long 12,011 contracts 2. Morgan Stanley: Net long 8,011 contracts 3. JPMorgan Chase: Net long 6,011 contracts ? Hedge Fund Sentiment 1. Bridgewater Associates: Net long 15,011 contracts 2. BlackRock: Net long 10,011 contracts 3. Vanguard: Net long 8,011 contracts ? Retail Trader Sentiment 1. Interactive Brokers: Net long 6,011 contracts 2. TD Ameritrade: Net long 4,011 contracts 3. E*TRADE: Net long 3,011 contracts ? Overall Outlook Based on the analysis, GBP/JPY is expected to move in a bullish trend, with a 55% chance of an uptrend and a 35% chance of a downtrend. The remaining 10% chance is for a neutral trend. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management ? ?️ ?? As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits ?Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. ?Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. ?Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money ?? Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.???❤️?? I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned ?????
For today's post, we're diving into the concept " Risk-Reward Ratio " We'll take a look at practical examples and including other relevant scenarios of managing your risk. What is considered a good risk to reward ratio and where can you see it ? This applies to all markets, and during these volatile times it is an excellent idea to take a good look at your strategy and refine your risk management. You've all noticed the really helpful tool " long setup " or " short setup " on the left-hand column. This clearly identifies the area of profit (in green), the area for a stop-loss (in red) and your entry (the borderline). It also shows the percentage of your increases or decreases at the top and bottom. It looks like this : https://www.tradingview.com/x/TbxJvJNS/ ?Something to remember; It is entirely up to you where you decided to take profit and where you decide to put your stop loss. The IDEAL anticipated targets are given, but the price may not necessarily reach these points. You have that entire zone to choose from and you can even have two or three take profits points in a position. Now, what is the Risk Reward Ratio expressed in the center as a number.number ? The risk to reward ration is exactly as the word says : The amount you risk for the amount you could potentially gain. NOTE that your risk is indefinite, but your gains are not guaranteed. The risk/reward ratio measures the difference between the entry point to a stop-loss and a sell or take-profit point. Comparing these two provides the ratio of profit to loss, or reward to risk. For example, if you're a gambler and you've played roulette, you know that the only way to win 10 chips is to risk 5 chips. Your risk here is expressed as 5:10 or 5.10 .You can spread these 5 chips out any way you like, but the goal of the risk is for a reward that is bigger than your initial investment. However, you could also lose your 5 and this will mean that you need to risk double as much in your next play to make up for your loss. Trading is no different, (except there is method to the madness other than sheer luck...) Most market strategists and speculators agree that the ideal risk/reward ratio for their investments should not be less than 1:3, or three units of expected return for every one unit of additional risk. Take a look at this example: Here, you're risking the same amount that you could potentially gain. The Risk Reward ratio is 1, assuming you follow the exact prices for entry, TP and SL. https://www.tradingview.com/x/E9Ia5iiD/ Can you see why this is not an ideal setup? If your risk/reward ratio is 1, it means you might as well not participate in the trade since your reward is the same as your risk. This is not an ideal trade setup. An ideal trade setup is a scenario where you can AT LEAST win 3x as much as what you are risking. For example: https://www.tradingview.com/x/fpesszCK/ Note that here, my ratio is now the ideal 2.59 (rounded off to 2.6 and then simplified it becomes 1:3). If you're wondering how I got to 1:3, I just divided 2.6 by 2, giving me 1 and 3. Another way to express this visually: https://www.tradingview.com/x/LxTx4MH3/ In the first chart example I have a really large increase for the long position and you can't easily simplify 7.21 so; here's a visual to break down what that looks like: https://www.tradingview.com/x/hanNOu3C/ If you are setting up your own trade, you can decide at what point you feel comfortable to set your stop loss. For example, you may feel that if the price drops by more than 10%, that's where you'll exit and try another trade. Or, you could decide that you'll take the odds and set your stop loss so that it only triggers if the price drops by 15%. The latter will naturally mean you are trading at higher risk because your risk of losing is much more. Seasoned analysts agree that you shouldn't have a value smaller than 5% for your stop loss, because this type of price action occurs often during a day. For crypto, I would say 10% because we all know that crypto markets are much more volatile than stock markets and even more so than commodity markets like Gold and Silver, which are the most stable. Remember that your Risk/Reward ratio forms an important part of your trading strategy, which is only one of the steps in your risk management program. Dollar cost averaging is another helpfull way to further manage your risk. There are many more things to consider when thinking about risk management, but we'll dive into those in another post.
Despite the rising wedge, in my opinion it is still a buy due to its fundamentals and tailwinds on AI and ChatGPT.
### ? ? ? **Stock:** PRTS (NASDAQ) ⏳ **Timeframe:** 30-Min Chart ? **Setup Type:** Bearish Breakdown ### ? **Trade Plan:** ✅ **Entry Zone:** $1.18 (Breakdown confirmation from the descending triangle) ? **Take Profit 1 (TP1):** $1.11 (First Key Support) ? **Take Profit 2 (TP2):** $1.04 (Extended Target if selling pressure continues) ? **Stop-Loss (SL):** $1.24 (Above resistance to limit risk) ? **Risk-Reward Ratio:** Favorable for a bearish continuation ?? ### ? **Technical Analysis & Setup:** ✅ **Pattern:** Bearish Breakdown from a Descending Triangle ? → ? ✅ **Resistance Zone:** Strong seller presence around $1.18 - $1.24 ✅ **Breakdown Confirmation Needed:** Price should drop below $1.18 with strong volume ✅ **Momentum Shift Expected:** Breakdown signals a potential downtrend ### ? **Trade Strategy & Refinements:** ? **Volume Confirmation:** Look for increased selling volume below $1.18 ? ? **Trailing Stop Strategy:** Once price reaches TP1 ($1.11), adjust SL lower to secure profits ? **Partial Profit Booking:** Take partial profits at $1.11 and let the rest ride toward $1.04+ ⚠️ **Watch for Fake Breakdowns:** If price rises back above $1.20, reconsider the setup ### ? **Final Thoughts:** ✅ **Bearish Breakdown Expected** – High probability of continuation lower ? ✅ **Strong Resistance at $1.18 - $1.24** – Ideal short entry for risk-reward optimization ? ✅ **Momentum Shift Possible** – A drop below $1.11 could accelerate downside move ? ? **Trade Smart & Stick to Your Plan!** ?? Would you like any refinements or additional insights? ?? ? **#ShortTrade #StockTrading #PRTS #TechnicalAnalysis #DayTrading #MomentumTrading #BearishBreakdown #RiskReward #TradingPlan #ProfitToPath** @vibes12 @dvibes1234
Simple idea: evgo has had drastic sell off - time to regain losses. Good luck!
VIX is dropping and guess what?? SVIX rises. It's that simple! This seems like a good set-up for now. There is a good upside, not too much, but directionally could be very good. All the best and always do your own due diligence!
1. **Decorative & Industrial Paints** – Asian Paints operates in both decorative and industrial coatings, catering to retail consumers and businesses with a wide range of products. 2. **Extensive Distribution Network** – The company has a strong supply chain, with over 70,000 dealers and a presence in more than 60 countries. 3. **Backward Integration** – Asian Paints manufactures key raw materials like emulsions and pigments, reducing dependency on external suppliers. 4. **Strong Brand & Innovation** – It invests heavily in branding, R&D, and technology to introduce premium, eco-friendly, and customized painting solutions. 5. **Home Improvement & Services** – Expanding beyond paints, it offers waterproofing, interior décor, and painting services under brands like "Beautiful Homes" and "Royale Play."
Gold is still in its Wave 5 bullish run, hence the extreme bullish momentum. However, if you zoom out on the 4H chart you'll see that the current high isn't extremely far away from our October (Wave 3) high, which peaked at $2,790. We are waiting for momentum to slow down & show a shift in market structure. ?AT THE MOST EXTREME, Wave 5 can push up towards $2,868 - $2,883?
As we see a complete impulse to the upside with a pullback followup. This tells us that, the market if finalising the small small details ready to touch the sky for Wave 3. All eyes at 61.8% & 78.6 Fib for an entry.
? Marktanalyse & Tradingsetup mit Markttechnik, Elliott-Wellen & ATR Der DAX-Future (FDAX1!) befindet sich weiterhin in einer übergeordneten Aufwärtsbewegung, zeigt jedoch kurzfristig erste Anzeichen einer Konsolidierung. Nach einem Anstieg auf über 21.900 Punkte geriet der Markt unter Druck, während Händler auf neue Impulse aus der Eurozone und den USA warten. Ein zentraler Fokus liegt auf der aktuellen Volatilitätsentwicklung, gemessen am ATR (Average True Range), um mögliche kurzfristige Bewegungen besser einzuordnen. Zudem analysieren wir die übergeordnete Elliott-Wellen-Struktur (Monats- und Wochenbasis), die markttechnische Lage sowie konkrete Tradingsetups. 2️⃣ Markttechnische Analyse ? Technische Indikatoren im Überblick ? Trendbestätigung durch EMAs: Die gleitenden Durchschnitte EMA 20, 50, 100 & 200 zeigen weiterhin einen intakten Aufwärtstrend. Der EMA 50 (Tagesbasis) liegt bei 21.500 und könnte kurzfristig als Unterstützung getestet werden. Der EMA 200 (4H-Chart) liegt bei 21.213, eine kritische Zone für tiefere Rücksetzer. ? Momentum & Marktstärke: RSI (Relative-Stärke-Index) bei 67: Noch keine klare Überkauft-Situation, aber nachlassende Dynamik. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Noch positive Werte, aber leichte Abflachung des Momentums. Bollinger-Bänder: Der Kurs nähert sich dem mittleren Band, was auf eine mögliche kurzfristige Seitwärtsbewegung hindeutet. ? ATR-Analyse – Volatilitätsentwicklung Der ATR misst die durchschnittliche tägliche Schwankungsbreite und ist ein entscheidender Indikator für die aktuelle Marktvolatilität. Tagesbasis ATR (~180 Punkte) → Hohe Schwankungsbreite nach den jüngsten geldpolitischen Entwicklungen. 4H-Chart ATR (~90 Punkte) → Intraday-Volatilität weiterhin erhöht. 1H-Chart ATR (leicht rückläufig) → Mögliches Zeichen einer kurzfristigen Beruhigung. ? Interpretation: Steigende ATR-Werte deuten auf anhaltend hohe Volatilität hin – eine Bewegung außerhalb der aktuellen Range ist wahrscheinlich. Eine Reduktion des ATR könnte eine temporäre Seitwärtsphase oder eine Konsolidierung anzeigen. 3️⃣ Elliott-Wellen-Analyse – Langfristige Struktur ?️ Monatschart – Übergeordnete Wellenzählung Die Elliott-Wellen-Analyse zeigt eine übergeordnete impulsive Struktur seit dem Tiefpunkt 2009. ? Langfristige Wellenzählung: 1️⃣ Welle 1 (2009–2015): Starker Impuls nach der Finanzkrise. 2️⃣ Welle 2 (2015–2016): Korrektur als ABC-Muster. 3️⃣ Welle 3 (2016–2022): Dynamischste Bewegung, unterstützt durch expansive Geldpolitik. 4️⃣ Welle 4 (2022–2023): Flache Korrekturphase. 5️⃣ Welle 5 (2023–laufend): Finaler Aufwärtsschub mit möglichem Zielbereich zwischen 22.500 – 23.000 Punkten. ? Erwartete Entwicklung: Sollte sich die Welle 5 weiter ausdehnen, könnte das finale Kursziel im Bereich 22.500 – 23.000 Punkte liegen. Danach wäre eine größere Korrektur (ABC-Struktur) wahrscheinlich. ? Wochenchart – Subwellen innerhalb von Welle 5 Innerhalb der übergeordneten Welle 5 sind folgende Subwellen erkennbar: Subwelle 1 (Juni – Oktober 2023): Erster dynamischer Anstieg. Subwelle 2 (Oktober – Dezember 2023): Korrekturbewegung bis auf 17.500 Punkte. Subwelle 3 (Dezember 2023 – Januar 2025): Aktuelle Impulsbewegung auf 21.900 Punkte. Subwelle 4 (potenziell laufend): Möglicher Rücksetzer in den Bereich 21.500 – 21.600. Subwelle 5 (Finaler Schub): Letzter Impuls mit Potenzial auf 22.500 – 23.000 Punkte. ? Schlussfolgerung: Eine kurzfristige Korrektur bis 21.500 wäre technisch gesund, bevor die finale Aufwärtsbewegung einsetzt. Erst unter 21.400 wird das bullische Szenario gefährdet. 4️⃣ Mikroskopische Analyse – Tages- & Intraday-Chart ? Kurzfristige Wellenzählung im Tageschart: 1️⃣ Welle 1: Aufwärtsbewegung von 20.500 → 21.500. 2️⃣ Welle 2: Korrektur bis 21.200. 3️⃣ Welle 3: Impulswelle auf 21.900. 4️⃣ Welle 4: Mögliche laufende Konsolidierung zwischen 21.500 – 21.600. 5️⃣ Welle 5: Letzter Anstieg auf 22.500 – 23.000. ? Mögliche Entwicklung: Ein Pullback auf 21.500 – 21.600 wäre eine normale Korrektur, um die nächste Aufwärtswelle vorzubereiten. Solange 21.400 nicht unterschritten wird, bleibt der Aufwärtstrend intakt. 5️⃣ Tradingsetups für die kommende Woche ? Long-Setup (Trendfortsetzung) Einstieg: Rücksetzer auf 21.500 – 21.600 (EMA 50 als Unterstützung). Ziel: 22.200 – 22.500. Stop-Loss: Unter 21.400. ? Short-Setup (Für erfahrene Trader) Einstieg: Bruch unter 21.500 (Schwächebestätigung). Ziel: 21.200 – 21.000 (mögliche ABC-Korrektur). Stop-Loss: Über 21.700. 6️⃣ Risikohinweis & Prognose ? Risikohinweis: Futures-Trading birgt erhebliche Risiken. Verluste können den investierten Betrag übersteigen. Diese Analyse stellt keine Anlageberatung dar. ? Prognose für die kommende Woche: Kurzfristig (1-5 Tage): Wahrscheinlich Konsolidierung zwischen 21.500 – 21.900. Mittelfristig (2-4 Wochen): Potenzial für einen Test der 22.500er-Marke. Langfristig (3-6 Monate): Welle 5 nähert sich ihrem finalen Stadium → Danach größere Korrektur möglich. 7️⃣ Zusammenfassung ✅ Der DAX bleibt weiterhin in einem übergeordneten Aufwärtstrend, aber erste Korrektursignale mehren sich. ✅ Die Elliott-Wellen-Analyse deutet darauf hin, dass die finale Welle 5 bald ihren Höhepunkt erreichen könnte. ✅ ATR zeigt eine erhöhte Volatilität, was kurzfristig stärkere Bewegungen wahrscheinlicher macht. ✅ Wichtige Unterstützungen liegen bei 21.500 – 21.600 Punkten. ? Disclaimer Diese Analyse dient ausschließlich Informationszwecken und stellt keine Handelsempfehlung dar. ? Copyright © 2025 ChartWise Insights