Very nice short lower highs look MA crossing down thru one another Staying short looking for dead cat bounce rally to add back short. Looking 218 add to short
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gP7O11d7/ • The daily candlestick was a bear bar with a prominent tail below, closing above the March 4 low. • The market gap lower at the open and formed a pullback (bounce) in the first two hours. The market then reversed lower to retest the March 4 low and broke below it. The breakout lacked follow-through selling and stalled around the March 4 low area. • The bulls see the market trading in a broad bull channel and want the move to continue for months. They want an endless pullback bull trend. • They want a retest of the all-time high (Dec 6) followed by a breakout and trend resumption. They see the current move (Mar 6) as a bear leg within the trading range. • They want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Jan 13 and Mar 6), a wedge bull flag (Nov 9, Jan 13, and Mar 6) and a wedge (Feb 25, Feb 28, and Mar 6). • They hope the bottom of the 22-week trading range will act as support. They want a failed breakout below the January 13 low. • At the least, they want a retest of the middle of the trading range (around the 20-day EMA). • They must create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to show they are back in control. • If the market trades lower, they want the November 4 or October 3 low to act as support. • The bears got a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal, a wedge top (Dec 6, Jan 24, and Feb 19), and a smaller double top (Jan 24 and Feb 19). • They see the market as being in a 22-week trading range. • They got a bear leg to retest the January 13 low and hope to get a breakout followed by a measured move based on the height of the 22-week trading range. • So far, the breakout below the January 13 low is not yet strong. • The move down is in a tight bear channel which increases the odds of at least a small second leg sideways to down after a pullback. • The move down has a lot of overlapping candlesticks which also indicates that the bears are not yet as strong as they hoped to be. • If the market trades higher, they want the bear trend line or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance followed by a retest of the recent leg extreme low (now Mar 6). • So far, the market is trading in a 22-week trading range. • The SPX broke below the January 13 low (Mar 6) but the follow-through selling is still somewhat limited. • The selling pressure in the move down is stronger (consecutive bear bars, bigger bear bars) than the weaker buying pressure (bull bars with no follow-through buying). • The move down is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to down after a pullback (bounce). • For now, traders will see if the bears can continue to create follow-through selling below the January 13 low. • Or will the market stall around the current levels and form a minor pullback (bounce) instead? • The bulls need to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to show that they are back in control. • The bears must create a strong breakout below the January 13 low with follow-through selling to convince traders that a breakout could be underway.
Event to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change USDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been strengthening in recent weeks due to the general weakness of the US Dollar (USD), maintaining the USD/JPY pair near its lowest level since early October, which was reached on Thursday.Speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates has put upward pressure on Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The narrowing rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to support the low-yielding yen.Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policy and its impact on global economic growth continues to weigh on investor sentiment, as evidenced by weaker stock market performance. This is another factor supporting the safe-haven yen. However, USD bears seem reluctant to place new bets and prefer to wait for the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which in turn limits USD/JPY losses. Trade recommendation: BUY 147.600, SL 147.000, TP 148.400
HDFC BANK is going to be the Large cap heavyweight saviour of the market in these turbulent times. The price is holding firm around the 1700 levels and is not showing any signs of crumbling. I anticipate the stock to rally towards 1780 price level within this March 2025 expiry. SL would be this week's low. Stay tuned!
Alibaba (ticker: BABA) started a 5 waves rally from Jan 22, 2024 low. Up from there, wave (1) ended at 116.57 and wave (2) pullback ended at 80.06. Wave (3) higher ended at 145.3 as the 30 minutes chart below shows. Wave (4) pullback unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (3), wave ((i)) ended at 138.3 and wave ((ii)) ended at 143.75. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 128.44 and wave ((iv)) ended at 131.5. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 127.78 which completed wave A in higher degree. Wave B rally also unfolded as a zigzag structure. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 136.66 and wave ((b)) ended at 130.75. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 143 which completed wave B in higher degree. The stock then turned lower in wave C as an impulse. Down from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 138.29 and wave ((ii)) ended at 142.1. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 130.14 and wave ((iv)) ended at 135.99. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 126.1 which completed wave C of (4) in higher degree. The stock has resumed higher in wave (5) and broken above wave (3) confirming the next leg higher has started. Up from wave (4), wave 1 ended at 146.76. Pullback in wave 2 is now in progress to correct cycle from 3.4.2025 low before the stock resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 126.16 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
Bitcoin recently broke below a 105‐day trading range, anchored by the critical 90K level. After the breakdown, it found support around 80K, prompting a sharp rebound back toward the previous range. This rebound, however, was short‐lived: BTC tested 95K, then quickly retraced, only to rally again toward 90K, where it trades at present. Overview of BTC’s 105‐Day Range Break and Retest: https://www.tradingview.com/x/VxIGft8u/ Yearly Open at $93,576: This is the single most important level to watch. Price currently sits below the yearly open, suggesting that, for now, bears hold the upper hand. If bulls cannot reclaim this threshold, the yearly candle remains vulnerable to turning red. 90K–95K Resistance Zone: With Bitcoin failing to sustain gains above 95K, this band becomes a natural focal point for potential short entries. Bears are expected to defend this region aggressively. The question: Where do we go next? Let’s break down both the resistance (short setup) and an upcoming support zone (long setup), incorporating a variety of confluences—from volume profiles and trend lines to Fibonacci retracements and pitchfork alignments. 1. Resistance Analysis & Short Thesis 1.1. Double Top Target at $72,800 A double top pattern has formed, suggesting a measured‐move target near $72,800. While not a guaranteed endpoint, this target serves as an early directional clue. Price could still find support at higher levels, so we use this only as one piece of a larger puzzle. Double Top Pattern with $72,800 Target: https://www.tradingview.com/x/bQ1XuupL/ 1.2. The 105‐Day Trading Range & Retest Bitcoin spent over 100 days ranging between roughly 90K and 105K. The downside break turned that prior range into a new resistance zone—specifically 90K–95K, with an even stronger cluster up to $96,418 (Point of Control from that range). Fixed Range Volume Profile: The POC (Point of Control) from this 105‐day period lies at $96,418.05, further extending our resistance zone. Price retesting anywhere between 90K and the POC around 96K sets up potential short entries. Fixed Range Volume Profile Showing POC at $96,418.05: https://www.tradingview.com/x/5725nhgQ/ Stop Loss Guidance: Given the possibility of wicks or “stop hunts,” a safer invalidation point sits above 98K. That buffer allows the trade room to breathe without prematurely stopping out on minor spikes. 1.3. Daily & Weekly Moving Averages In addition to the above factors, both the daily 21 EMA/SMA and the weekly 21 EMA/SMA are converging in the 90-92K region, acting as additional resistance. https://www.tradingview.com/x/LwPpux2a/ 1.4. Bearish Trend Line & Pitchfork Alignment Bearish Trend Line: Connecting the all‐time high at $109,588 and the swing high at $106,457.44 yields a downward sloping line. This trend line has already acted as resistance near 100K on February 21. Pitchfork (Modified Schiff): Anchoring from the all‐time high (109,588) to the swing low (97,777.77) and back up to 106,457.44 confirms the same bearish trajectory, aligning neatly with the trend line around 95K. Bearish Trend Line & Pitchfork Convergence Around 95K: https://www.tradingview.com/x/BRq8xgAs/ 1.5. Monthly Order Block & Fibonacci Confluence Monthly Order Block: Spanning from the yearly open (93,576) up to the POC (~96,418), this monthly order block forms a substantial supply zone. Price often gravitates toward the median line of an order block, which sits near 94–95K. Fibonacci Retracement (0.786): From the swing high at 99,475 (Feb 21) down to the low at 78,258.52, the 0.786 retracement is at 94,934.67—almost exactly the median line of the monthly order block. Monthly Order Block, Median Line, and 0.786 Fib at ~94,934.67: https://www.tradingview.com/x/X1e4h347/ When price rallies swiftly to the 0.786 for the first time, it often presents an ideal short entry—especially under a confluence of bearish signals: https://www.tradingview.com/x/MyDTsLPX/ 2. Short Trade Setup: Laddering In & Out 2.1. Scaling In (Entries) We allocate $25,000 (from a $100,000 account) and ladder our entries from 89,736 up to 96,206: https://www.tradingview.com/x/GGVpccda/ Short Trade Laddered Entries: https://www.tradingview.com/x/rvfUpLzW/ Stop Loss: $97,560 (slightly below the higher “breathing room” area of 98K). Max Risk: Approximately $1,028.16 (about 4.11% of the GETTEX:25K position, or 1.03% of the $100k account). 2.2. Scaling Out (Exits) We plan to take profits in increments as price drops, aiming for an average exit around $79,822.10: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Nt7WKxcR/ Potential Profit: Approximately $3,704.16 on a $25,000 position, which is +14.82% (or +3.70% of the $100k account). Risk‐to‐Reward Ratio: 3.60, an attractive R:R for a swing trade. 3. Support Analysis & Long Thesis Having addressed the downside retest and short scenario, let’s turn to potential support where Bitcoin might reverse for a long trade. 3.1. Double Top Target & 5‐Wave Structure The double top projected target near $72,800 aligns with a broader Elliott Wave possibility, where BTC may have completed a 5‐wave structure from the low at $15,476 to the all‐time high at $109,588. A typical Fibonacci retracement of this 5‐wave move suggests the 0.382 level at $73,637.22, which sits near a notable swing high of $73,777—coincidence? 5‐Wave Structure & 0.382 Fib Retracement at ~$73,637: https://www.tradingview.com/x/k7ol0E3Y/ 3.2. Monthly Bullish Order Block & Further Fib Confluence Monthly Bullish Order Block: Located around $71,280, historically a place where buyers have stepped in. Fib Retracement (49K to 109K): The 0.618 retracement lands at $72,144.62, adding further confluence around the 72–73K zone. Taken together, we begin to see a support band forming between $73,777 and $71,280. Monthly Bullish Order Block & 0.618 Fib ~$72,144.62: https://www.tradingview.com/x/kpcCWEYU/ 3.3. Fib Speed Fan & Bullish Trend Line Fib Speed Fan (0.7): On higher timeframes, the 0.7 fan lines up with the same 71–73K region if BTC dips this month. Bullish Trend Line: Connecting the lows at 49K and 52,550 also aligns with this zone, reinforcing the idea that a cluster of support awaits if price slides that far. Bullish Trend Line & Fib Speed Fan ~$71–73K: https://www.tradingview.com/x/VGpETbPG/ 3.4. Potential Long Trade Setup Entry Range: Ladder in from 76K down to 71K (or adjust according to personal risk appetite within that 73–71K zone). Stop Loss: Below 70K, providing sufficient buffer. Target: At least the monthly open ($84,350), or higher if momentum supports a stronger bounce. Risk‐to‐Reward (R:R): Aim for 2:1 or better, depending on exact entries and the final target. 4. Summary Short Trade: Resistance Zone: 90K–95K, extending up to $96,418 (POC) and with the daily/weekly 21 EMA/SMA acting as additional resistance in the 90-92K region, plus a stop‐hunt buffer above 98K. Laddered Entry: GETTEX:25K allocated, averaging around $93,706, with a stop near $97,560. Scaling Out: Average exit near $79,822, netting a +14.82% gain on the position (+3.70% on account). R:R: 3.60—solid for a swing setup. Long Trade: Support Zone: Between $73,777 and $71,280, with multiple Fibonacci and structural confluences. Laddered Entry: Potential DCA from around 76K down to 71K, with a stop under 70K. Target: At least $84,350 (monthly open), likely offering a 2:1 or better risk‐to‐reward. Sharp moves up or down have been the norm lately, often gravitating to the 0.786 fib retracement on each leg, so remain vigilant for sudden volatility. Ultimately, flexibility is key. If Bitcoin reclaims the yearly open at $93,576 and pushes decisively above 95–98K, the bearish case weakens. Conversely, a significant drop below 80K brings the deeper support zone near 73–71K into sharper focus. Always be prepared for shifts in market conditions—confirm each setup with multiple indicators and chart patterns before entering any trade. Stay up to date with evolving market dynamics and adjust your strategy accordingly. Happy trading! P.S. If you have any coin requests, feel free to share them in the comments. I will be selecting one or two for the next technical analysis.
I anticipate pi will fall down to $1.6550. First ever trade on his pair so lets see how it goes. Pretty confident in the setup though. I don't think they have enough demand to drive the price up from here so I expect sellers to take full control for a while and drive it down to like $1.6550 area. That's where I have limit exit order as I'll be asleep and won't be able to monitor
Look Daily stoch on bottom look SPY holding 200 day have stop under 200 day in case drops Will see how jobs # are looking 595
Market news: Spot gold opened sharply lower in the Asian session on Friday (March 7), and is currently trading around $2,903/oz. London gold prices fell slightly on Thursday. Some of Trump's tariff exemption policies and the market's expectation that the Russian-Ukrainian war is coming to an end have cooled risk aversion sentiment, pushing some longs to take profits. Spot gold once fell to around $2,891/oz, but the U.S. trade deficit hit a record high in January, suggesting that trade may drag down economic growth in the first quarter. Market expectations for the Fed's rate cut in May have increased, attracting bargain-hunting buying to support international gold prices! The gold investment market stopped its gains in the previous few trading days as investors took profits before the release of the key U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Rising U.S. Treasury yields have also reduced the attractiveness of holding this non-yielding metal. The latest tariff news from U.S. President Trump has triggered a rise in risk appetite, hitting gold, which has a safe-haven attribute. Trump's administration further withdrew its threat to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, a major concession to Trump's aggressive trade agenda. All eyes are now on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which economists polled by Reuters expect to show an increase of 160,000 jobs in February. In addition, Fed Chairman Powell and other officials will speak on Friday, which investors need to pay attention to. In addition, investors need to continue to pay attention to news related to the situation in Russia and Ukraine. Technical review: Gold has been volatile in the past two days, and the long-short game is also fierce. The current rise and fall of gold have not continued, and they are just piercing patterns. The piercing of 2928 on Wednesday did not continue, and the piercing of 2894 on Thursday did not continue. The hourly and four-hour cycles are very obvious, both are horizontal structures, and the price fluctuates repeatedly like a roller coaster! In this case, you can't chase orders, it is easy to lose money on both ends, and this trend will be maintained before non-agricultural data. The choice of direction depends on the impact of Friday's non-agricultural data. For the daily cycle, the moving average of last week's sharp drop was a dead cross downward, but after the strong rebound this week, it is currently in a horizontal flat state. There is no clear direction after the sharp drop and rise, and it is more based on shocks for the time being! Today, the non-agricultural data will be released at 21:30 in the US market, and the market estimate is slightly bearish for gold and silver. It's Friday again, pay attention to the market on Black Friday! Especially for short-term trading, the US market rose to the opening point of 2923 in the European market and then fell back. Pay attention to the support of 2890 in the early morning and go short. The range is 2890-2930. Note that the breakthrough continues before it is time to show the direction. Today's analysis: Gold fell rapidly in the Asian session today, but it still failed to continue today. It still fluctuated during the session. Although the low point has been extended, it seems to be fluctuating and weakening on the surface, but in fact it is the market washing. The repeated fluctuations of the bullish trend at a high level are a manifestation of seeking a breakthrough! If you want to layout in the later stage, you should first consider falling back to low and long!At present, the market high pressure is very clear. The 2930 line is still an insurmountable pressure in the short term, and the most controversial is the support below, because it is in a state of continuous exploration, but from the recent trend, each low point refresh is only a few US dollars downward. Gold will not continue in the near future. Obviously, the support level is the low point of the previous wave as a reference! At the moment when the general direction is still bullish, only falling back and going long is in line with the mainstream of the market!Gold is still fluctuating in a large range in 1 hour. The bulls do not have a completely strong market. They go back and forth, ups and downs. At present, gold should be careful of the bulls' risk aversion sentiment to ease and start a large adjustment. In the later stage, focus on the support level of 2890 to layout longs. The upper target will first see the pressure of 2930! Operation ideas: Short-term gold 2888-2891 long, stop loss 2880, target 2910-2920; Short-term gold 2925-2928 short, stop loss 2936, target 2900-2890; Key points: First support level: 2900, second support level: 2892, third support level: 2878 First resistance level: 2918, second resistance level: 2928, third resistance level: 2936
Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline. Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down. Breakouts: Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold. Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying. MA Ribbon (EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 100, EMA 200) : Above EMA: If the stock price is above the EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum. Below EMA: If the stock price is below the EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum. Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set. Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward. Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.