Hi there! A Bounce or a Crash? The AAII published recent data showing that bearish sentiment (61.9%) is significantly higher than bullish and neutral stances (21.8% and 16.3%). Interestingly, the 1-Year Bearish High was 61.9%, and it was just around the corner in the week ending 4/2/2025. Please have a look at the Histogram screenshot on the chart. The question is: How is this bearish from the long-term historical perspective? Did you know that on the website https://aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results, you can download charts and an Excel file dating back to 1987? I have done some analysis. Please review some observations in the table on the chart. My conclusion is simple: 1) An extremely high bearish sentiment could serve as a contrarian indicator for potential market rebounds; however, outcomes vary significantly. 2) The timing of market reactions is unpredictable—some recoveries are immediate, while others take longer to cook Source of #AAII data: https://www.aaii.com/sentiment-survey Thank you for the Boost and Happy Sunday!
While uncertainty in global markets increases, demand for gold — seen as a safe haven — is also rising. However, some investors facing difficulties in the stock or futures markets are selling gold to maintain their positions. In your opinion, which side will prevail?
Gold Weekly Forecast – April Week 2 Last week, Gold (XAU/USD) reached a new all-time high at $3,168, before closing the week near $3,035, printing a strong bearish weekly candle. Despite the current risk-off sentiment in global markets — with the VIX spiking to 29 — Gold is not behaving like a safe haven just yet. Instead, the technicals suggest a pullback is necessary. There is a clear imbalance and untested support zone around $2,960, which price has yet to revisit. Primary Scenario: • Gold may open the week with a bullish bounce toward $3,070 • Then reverse with a sharp bearish leg down to $2,960 • From there, we reassess — Gold could react strongly and resume its bullish trend, or continue correcting deeper. Bias: Bearish → Bullish (if $2,960 holds) Key Levels: • Resistance: $3,070 • Support: $2,960 (main zone to watch) This scenario matches both the technical need for a pullback and the macro confusion around gold’s role as a safe haven this week. — Weekly forecast by Sphinx Trading Drop your thoughts in the comments. #Gold #XAUUSD #GoldForecast #TechnicalAnalysis #SphinxWeekly #SafeHaven #VIX #Commodities #MarketOutlook
Further indication things are moving to the downside for the next few weeks. XRP hasnt even really fallen, btc hasn't even touched $74,000 yet. And then we have trump coin, the current crypto barometer. It continues to fall as i've predicted and this is indictive the rest of the market will soon follow suit. It is tied directly to the social impression of the biggest policy maker in the world at the moment. Policy moves markets.
Part of the #Socionomics series. How fashion and societal moods shifted in the first half of the 20th century. 1900–1910 Economy: The rise of industrialization in the U.S. — Ford’s assembly line (1908), booming cities, and a growing wealth gap between the elite and the working class. In Europe, colonial powers raced for survival, fueling military spending (sound familiar?). Mood: Faith in technological progress clashed with protests against exploitation. Suffragettes smashed London storefronts (1908), while New York’s Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire (1911) galvanized labor rights movements. Fashion: Rigid corsets and floor-length skirts symbolized Victorian morality. Yet rebels like designer Paul Poiret introduced hobble skirts — a tentative step toward freedom of movement. 1910–1920 Economy: World War I (1914–1918) reshaped the globe: Europe lay in ruins, while the U.S. profited from arms sales. Postwar hyperinflation crippled Germany, and the Spanish Flu (1918–1920) claimed millions. Mood: Women replaced men in factories, only to be pushed back into domestic roles after the war. A feminist explosion: American women won voting rights in 1920. Fashion: Skirts rose to ankle-length for practicality. By the decade’s end, the flapper emerged — straight-cut dresses, beaded necklaces, and cigarettes in hand, defying tradition. A sign of the stock market’s brewing boom. 1920–1929 Economy: The "Roaring Twenties" — jazz, speculation, and Prohibition. The stock market quadrupled; ordinary Americans borrowed heavily to invest, then borrowed again against rising shares. Mood: Hedonism reigned. Speakeasies and Gatsby-esque parties masked pre-crash euphoria. Fashion: Knees on display! Fringed dresses, bobbed haircuts, and gartered stockings. By 1929, subdued silhouettes crept in — an omen of crisis. 1930–1940 Economy: The 1929 bubble burst: Wall Street crashed, triggering the Great Depression (1929–1939). U.S. unemployment hit 25%. Europe veered toward fascism and war. Mood: Despair from Dust Bowl migrations and hunger marches. Yet Hollywood’s Golden Age offered escapism. Fashion: Skirts lengthened — modesty returned. Long dresses dominated, while cheap fabrics and turbans (to hide unwashed hair) became staples. 1940–1950 Economy: World War II (1939–1945). Postwar Europe rebuilt via the Marshall Plan; the U.S. embraced consumerism. Mood: Patriotism ("Rosie the Riveter") and postwar hope. The baby boom idealized domesticity. Fashion: War mandated minimalism: knee-length skirts and padded shoulders. In 1947, Christian Dior’s New Look rebelled — voluminous ankle-length skirts symbolized postwar opulence. 1950–1960 Economy: America’s "Golden Fifties" — middle-class expansion, cars, and TV. Europe recovered, but colonial wars (Algeria, Vietnam) exposed crises. Mood: Conformity (suburban perfection) vs. teenage rebellion (James Dean, Elvis’s rock ‘n’ roll). Fashion: Sheath dresses and midi skirts emphasized femininity. By the late 1950s, Mary Quant experimented with mini-skirts — a harbinger of the sexual revolution. 1960s: Peak of Postwar Prosperity Economy: U.S. GDP grew 4-5% annually; unemployment dipped below 4%. Baby boomers (1946–1964) fueled suburban housing and education demand. Fashion: The mini-skirt became an era-defining manifesto of freedom, paired with bold go-go boots. Economic optimism bred experimentation: neon synthetics (nylon, Lycra) and psychedelic hues. Conclusion Women’s fashion mirrors its era. Crises (1930s) hide knees; liberating times (1920s, 1960s) bare them. Even war skirts (1940s’ knee-length pragmatism) carried hope. ? Like and subscribe for insights your economics textbook won’t reveal! #beginners #learning_in_pulse #interesting #socionomics #history #fashiontrends
According to elliott wave count, If BTC has completed it's macro wave (IV), then we can expect it moving to complete it's macro wave (V). In this case if recently impulse move is counted as micro wave (i), then we can expect reversal from 81-79K region very soon. Otherwise, if micro count gets Invalid, then reversal can be expected from up to 76-70k . Important key level is breakout of 95k which would confirm reverse in trend.
DXY Technical Outlook – April Week 2 After Trump’s tariff announcement shook the markets last week, the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply into an extreme daily demand zone (102.000–101.500) and responded with strong bullish pressure by Friday’s close. If fear continues into Monday, DXY could extend higher. The key area to watch is 103.500, a solid resistance zone. A clean breakout above this level could trigger an aggressive rally toward 105.500–106.000, where major supply lies. Bias: Bullish Key Levels: • Support: 102.000 – 101.500 (extreme demand zone) • Resistance 1: 103.500 • Resistance 2: 105.500 – 106.000 This week, USD could be one of the strongest assets if risk-off sentiment continues and equity markets remain under pressure. — Weekly forecast by Sphinx Trading Let me know your bias in the comments. #DXY #USD #DollarIndex #ForexAnalysis #SphinxWeekly #TrumpTariffs #RiskOff #MacroView
? US100 (NASDAQ) Trade Idea: Critical Support Test & Potential Reversal Setup ? Key Levels & Context: The US100 is currently testing a significant support zone between 16,000–17,000, which has historically acted as a springboard for rallies (see 2023 bounce). A breakdown below 16,000 would suggest a deeper correction toward 15,242 (next support) or even 14,000, while holding above 17,000 could keep the bullish structure intact. ? Profit Targets (If Bullish Reversal Confirmed): Initial Target: 19,000 (Previous resistance → now potential support-turned-resistance) Secondary Target: 20,000–21,000 (Psychological level & measured move from consolidation) Stretch Target: 23,000–24,000 (All-time high retest, Fibonacci extension confluence) ? Bearish Scenario (If Support Fails): A close under 16,000 opens the door to 15,242 (2023 swing low) Short-term rallies into 17,500–18,000 could then become sell opportunities. So I think the US100 pursues the following projection, and I'd be happy if you share your thoughts ? #Trading #NASDAQ #US100
Weekly Analysis: Swing Structure -> Bullish. Internal Structure -> Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 16 March 2025. In my analysis dated 27 October 2024 I mentioned (below) that price could potentially print higher in order to reposition CHoCH. This is exactly how price printed. CHoCH positioning has been brought significantly closer to current price action. The remainder of my analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line. Price Action Analysis: In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH. Note: It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend. Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. Weekly Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/yuPqYwrn/ Daily Analysis: Swing -> Bullish. Internal -> Bullish. Price continued bullish repositioning bearish CHoCH positioning closer to current price action. Price is now trading within an internal low and fractal high. Price has very nearly printed a bearish which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation. Expectation is for price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate, bearish pullback phase initiation. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line. Note: With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty and the repricing of Gold. Daily Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/7OLFD40r/ H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 04 April 2025. Since last analysis price has printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,187,835 Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. H4 Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/lalfMPXC/
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