Market Thesis: Mitigating Bearish Fair Value Gap and Creating a Bullish Opportunity Overview: Current Market Context: The price action currently suggests the presence of a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), typically an area of imbalance where price tends to fill or mitigate before continuing its trend. The idea is to push or mitigate this gap, which would then open the opportunity to potentially form a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG), setting up a subsequent buying opportunity. Key Concepts: Bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG): A Fair Value Gap is typically an area where there’s a void or imbalance in price action due to swift movement (often during an impulsive trend). A bearish FVG forms when there is a large drop in price, creating a gap on the chart that often signals an area for price to retrace and fill before it continues lower or reverses. Mitigation of Bearish FVG: To "mitigate" a bearish gap means that price revisits the gap zone to fill it, addressing the imbalance. This often results in a temporary shift in price action or can indicate the completion of the retracement, making the market more likely to either reverse or continue in a more balanced fashion. Bullish FVG: If the market successfully mitigates the bearish FVG and rejects lower prices, the subsequent price action could leave behind a bullish FVG — essentially an area where price gaps higher, creating a new imbalance that traders can look to buy into on a pullback or retracement. A bullish FVG typically signals accumulation and the potential for price to continue upwards in the medium term. Trade Thesis: 1. Current Setup (Bearish FVG) The current chart shows a bearish Fair Value Gap, a region where price dropped sharply, creating a void. This gap is often filled before the market decides to continue lower or reverse, providing an opportunity to trade based on the expected retracement. 2. Mitigation Scenario Objective: Push price into the bearish FVG and allow the gap to be filled. This would typically mean a retracement into the gap zone to close the imbalance created by previous selling pressure. Key Levels: Focus on the high and low bounds of the FVG. A typical mitigation would look for price to move within or slightly above the gap before showing signs of exhaustion or reversal. Ideally, watch for a rejection or a clear reversal signal (e.g., candlestick patterns, RSI, or MACD divergence) once price reaches the gap. 3. Formation of a Bullish FVG Once the bearish FVG has been mitigated, the market could move up and form a new bullish FVG (typically a sharp move upwards, leaving behind a void). This will mark a shift in sentiment and create a higher probability of bullish continuation. The bullish FVG becomes a key level to watch for potential re-entry on dips (buying opportunities). Look for price to return to the FVG area or its immediate vicinity (typically a 50-70% retracement) for an ideal entry point. 4. Risk and Reward Considerations Risk Management: Given the volatility of filling a FVG, traders should ensure proper risk management. Tight stop losses just below the bearish FVG's mitigation zone (or the lower bound of the previous move) can be used. Reward Potential: Once the bullish FVG is created, the reward potential is based on a conservative target — typically aiming for the next key resistance level or previous high. 5. Confirmation Signals Volume Analysis: Watch for increasing volume as price re-enters the bearish FVG zone and then moves away from it. This often indicates that buyers are stepping in after the imbalance is resolved. Technical Indicators: Confirm the shift with momentum indicators like RSI or MACD. A positive divergence (higher lows on the indicator while price forms lower lows) can signal that buying pressure is building. Conclusion: This market setup involves mitigating the current bearish Fair Value Gap and leaving behind a bullish FVG as an opportunity to enter long positions. The thesis hinges on the assumption that the bearish gap will be filled (mitigated) and followed by price action that forms a bullish FVG, creating a buy opportunity on a retracement. Effective risk management and confirmation signals are crucial to executing this trade successfully. Stay tuned to stay updated with further developments as this scenario unfolds on Trading View. https://www.tradingview.com/x/cqfk35eK/
Since my last post, USDT.D dominance has been following a textbook ABC corrective wave pattern. Currently, we are in the C wave , which I believe will lead us to a critical area of 2.47% . This level is highly significant, as it may trigger a massive correction in the crypto market, potentially up to 40% . Key Insights: The "nuke zone" between 2.47%-2.50% should be on every trader's radar. I strongly recommend closing all long positions before we hit this zone to avoid heavy losses. Timing Speculation: The exact timing is theoretical and cannot be predicted with certainty, but I estimate this scenario could play out between April and June. Stay cautious and keep this level in mind while trading. I will provide further updates as the chart develops! Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. So mean while market will still go up untill we approach red zone or death zone :)
GOLD ,we have a breakout from the descending trendline connecting 2789-2788 to 2721.on structure retest is open and as well on the demand floor of the ascending trendline opening a 2650-2658 for buy and extreme buy will be 2640-2645. Goodluck
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CxTSO7C0/ Dollar Index completed a consolidation, violating a resistance of a wide horizontal range on a daily. It opens a potential for more growth. The market may keep rising, at least to 107.45 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Gold is on its way to new highs, anything under $2660 USD is the perfect entry levels. 2900 and above is where gold is headed.
Entry: 0.5764 TP: 0.5538 SL: 0.5889 Risk/Reward: 2.32 Reasoning: Monetary Divergence: The RBNZ has paused rate hikes, weakening NZD appeal, while USD strength is supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields and reduced Fed rate-cut expectations. Economic Weakness: New Zealand faces slowing growth, a weak housing market, and reduced demand from China. Bearish Momentum: NZD/USD recently broke two long-term support levels, suggesting further downside toward the 0.5538 demand zone. Strong USD: Global monetary easing (e.g., Switzerland, Canada, ECB) and policy concerns are bolstering the USD, further pressuring NZD.
The provided chart shows a 1-hour timeframe of Gold Spot/USD (XAU/USD). Here's a detailed breakdown of the technical analysis with bullish and bearish scenarios, as well as potential entry and exit points: 1. Key Levels Identified Resistance Levels (Red Lines): $2,725.84 (Major resistance zone) $2,703.95 (Immediate resistance) Support Levels (Green Zones): $2,680.08 (Immediate support) $2,661.07 (Critical support zone) $2,624.09 (Major support zone) Volume Clusters: Large buy/sell volumes visible around $2,703.95 and $2,688.01, suggesting strong participation in these areas. Delta Volume: Highlighted delta volume of 169.12% at $2,688.01, indicating heavy bearish selling pressure at this level. 2. Indicators Observed Trend Indicators: Price is interacting with a downward sloping EMA/MA, indicating short-term bearish momentum. The green zone below suggests a strong support base around $2,661.07. Volume and Order Flow: Selling pressure has increased recently, visible with a large red cluster around $2,703.95. Buy volumes near $2,680.08 could indicate a potential accumulation zone. Price Action: A lower high formation after touching $2,703.95, signaling bearish sentiment. However, bullish wicks near the $2,680.08 zone suggest buyers are defending this level. 3. Bullish Scenario Potential for Upside Movement Triggers for Upside: A break and sustained close above the immediate resistance at $2,703.95 could signal bullish momentum. Continuation beyond $2,725.84 would confirm a broader bullish breakout. Entry Point: Aggressive Entry: Above $2,703.95 with confirmation via a bullish candle close. Conservative Entry: After a retest of $2,703.95 and a bounce higher. Target Levels: First Target: $2,715 - $2,725 (key resistance zone). Second Target: $2,740, a psychological resistance level. Stop Loss: Below the $2,680.08 support to protect against fakeouts. 4. Bearish Scenario Potential for Downside Movement Triggers for Downside: Failure to hold $2,680.08 support will open the door for further declines. A breakdown below $2,661.07 would signal increased bearish momentum. Entry Point: Aggressive Entry: Below $2,680.08 after a bearish candle close. Conservative Entry: On a retest of $2,680.08 as resistance after the breakdown. Target Levels: First Target: $2,661.07 (next support level). Second Target: $2,624.09, a major support zone. Stop Loss: Above the $2,688.01 zone to avoid invalidation from quick reversals. 5. Probable Scenarios Bullish Continuation: If price holds above $2,680.08, accumulation may occur, pushing price toward $2,703.95 or higher. Bearish Continuation: If price breaks below $2,680.08, selling could intensify, targeting $2,661.07 and $2,624.09. 6. Trading Plan: For Bulls: Look for signs of strength around $2,680.08, such as bullish engulfing candles or higher lows. Focus on entering above $2,703.95 for a continuation to $2,725 and beyond. For Bears: Watch for rejection candles at $2,703.95 or a breakdown below $2,680.08. Target the $2,661.07 level and trail profits if selling accelerates. 7. Conclusion The $2,680.08 level acts as the battleground between bulls and bears. Traders should wait for confirmation before entering, keeping stop losses tight to manage risk.
You have witnessed many times that The departure from such density patterns releases good growth energy and It makes for good and fast growth
Gold prices climbed further, driven by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions and a Wall Street selloff boosting safe-haven demand. China likely acquired over five tonnes of gold in Nov, according to the PBoC report. Upcoming central bank decisions in Canada, the EU, Switzerland, and the Fed are expected to heighten gold price volatility as investors await key economic signals. XAUUSD firmly broke above its sideways range, with higher swings and diverging bullish EMAs indicating its bullish momentum. If XAUUSD surpasses the previous high at 2720, the price could rise toward its resistance at 2750 before a potential bearish reversal. Conversely, if XAUUSD retraces, the price may dip to 2680 before continuing its uptrend. 1M liquidity found on 2720 and 1M+ liquidity found on 2750 so move is confirm
Detials On The Chart Analysis 4H Pitchfork Stoploss : Close 1H Candle Above 2702