✅ LULU is oversold and has rejected the key resistance at 367.50 five times, indicating strong accumulation. A breakout to the upside is likely. LONG ? ✅ Like and subscribe to never miss a new analysis! ✅
Gold is currently trading at $2,927, showing signs of price rejection from a weak high at $2,942.65. The market structure suggests that a retracement could be underway before further directional movement. Break of Structure (BOS) is evident at multiple points, indicating bullish momentum. Change of Character (ChOCH) around previous support-turned-resistance, signaling a potential short-term reversal. The price is currently testing a 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG) as a possible demand zone. Key Levels Resistance: $2,942.65 (Weak High), $2,939.62 (Recent High) Support: $2,914.80 (Demand Zone), $2,888.48 (Major Support) Trade Setups A short position from the weak high zone ($2,942.65) with targets at $2,914.80 could be favorable. If the price holds above the 1H FVG zone, a bullish continuation could be possible. Confirmation via candlestick rejection or bearish engulfing around $2,942 would add confluence for shorts. A break above $2,942 with volume could invalidate the bearish bias and lead to new highs. Gold’s recent bullish rally is facing resistance at a weak high, with a possible retracement toward key demand zones. Traders should monitor price action around the 1H FVG and structural levels for potential trading opportunities. Would love to hear your thoughts! ?? #XAUUSD #TradingView #GoldAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcepts
This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 19 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Some USA economic news today: US : Housing Starts & FOMC Meeting Minutes The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary: Short-Term Bias : Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. 4H Chart Analysis https://www.tradingview.com/x/6tphnxuS/ 1️⃣ ?Swing Bullish ?INT Bearish ?Reached Swing Extreme Demand ?Swing Continuation 2️⃣ ?With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. ?The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) ?With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play. ?Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed). 3️⃣ ?Price swept the Liq. at 1.04472, mitigated the 4H Demand and created a Bullish CHoCH which faded in the same candle and created a Bearish CHoCH. Which formed technically a new Supply zone that price is currently in. ?Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme where we are getting the current corrective Bearish OF. 15m Chart Analysis https://www.tradingview.com/x/g22QKCSs/ 1️⃣ ?Swing Bullish ?INT Bearish ?Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount ?Swing Pullback Phase 2️⃣ ?Bullish Swing structure continuing bullish aligning with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase. ?After the recent Swing BOS, we expect a pullback which is confirmed with the 15m Bearish iBOS. ?With the Bearish iBOS we confirm the 15m pullback phase to Swing EQ (50%)/ Discount which we reached yesterday. ?Price had mitigated partially the 4H Big Demand zone which leaded to Sweeping Liq. above the INT-INT Structure High (4H Bullish CHOCH) but again price failed to hold bullish and formed another Bearish iBOS. ?We still in the 15m Swing Pullback Phase and there is a high probability that we’ll have a deeper swing pullback to the extreme 15m Demand as price currently in the recent 4H Supply formed yesterday. ?I’ll be looking for longs only when we confirm a Bullish iBOS for me to play the 15m Swing continuation. Otherwise, I’ll follow the recent 4H Supply formed/15m INT Bearish Structure. 3️⃣ ?Expectations is set to continue Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback Phase till we have a Bullish INT Structure/mitigating the 15m extreme demand.
So, I have been tracking about 3500+ stocks that alert me when news is with some criteria such as float and relative volume. So today, my tracker alerted me at 8.42 am EST that PRFX had news and was potentially breaking out. What I did I got in at $3.96 and sold when https://www.tradingview.com/v/brjK8LqZ/ scalper indicator signals the Trending Down. I normally only buy 1 time per stock per day and don't chase. I make sure I will always have a 10% stop loss and 20% take profit, and with a breakout, I manually stretch the take profit limit order by another 20% and bring my stop loss above entry by 10%.
Afrimat (AFT) is an open-pit mining company that supplies composites, construction materials, and other commodities to a range of industries in Southern Africa. Until the end of 2015, Afrimat was one of the best-performing shares on the JSE. The share broke up out of a three-year sideways pattern, which included the COVID-19 crisis. It rose to a peak of R76 on 6th April 2022 but has been declining since then as the commodities cycle came to an end. The acquisition of the Demaneng iron mine in the Northern Cape has insulated Afrimat against the difficulties in the construction industry. The company is also looking to diversify into other base minerals like manganese, chrome, and coal. The CEO, Andries van Heerden, said that Afrimat was known for its success in acquisitions and was still evaluating potential acquisitions. On 26th May 2020, the company announced that it had submitted a non-binding expression of interest to Unicorn Capital Partners (in which it already owns 27%), which runs an anthracite mine. The offer is for 1 Afrimat share for 280 Unicorn shares. The company benefited from rising iron ore prices due to supply constraints in Brazil and rising demand from China. On 17th August 2020, the company announced that it had bought a mining exploration company (Coza Mining) involved in looking for iron and manganese in the Northern Cape for R300m. On 21st May 2021, the company announced the purchase of a manganese mine, Gravenhage, in the Kalahari Manganese Field, 50km from Hotazel, for $45m plus R15m. On 10th December 2021, the company announced the acquisition of Glenover Phosphate for R550m. On 20th March 2022, the company announced that its listing had been moved from Basic Materials Construction and Materials to the General Mining sector, which better reflected its business. On 20th June 2023, the company announced that it had acquired 100% of construction materials company, Lafarge, for $6m, less any amounts categorised as leakage under the Share Purchase Agreement. In its results for the six months to 31st August 2024, the company reported revenue up 44,3% and headline earnings per share of 53c. The company's net asset value (NAV) rose 10,5% to 3038c per share. The company said, "Afrimat felt the brunt of a declining iron ore price, a strengthening Rand, continued limitations on the export rail line, large industrial customers reducing offtake because of economic and unforeseeable circumstances, and losses in the cement business. This culminated in headline earnings per share reducing from 263,4 cents to 53,0 cents." In a pre-close update, the company said, "Poor rail performance continues to impact export iron ore volumes. Volumes align with the previous financial year, which is good news to an extent because volumes have not deteriorated." Like all commodity companies, Afrimat's shares have declined with the drop in commodity prices, but this company is well-diversified and has very low debt levels, making it good value. On 10th April 2024, the company announced that it had received approval from the Competition Commission for its acquisition of 100% of Lafarge. On a P:E of 17,63, it seems fully priced to us. Technically, the share is in a volatile upward trend, which we believe will continue.
The once-massive construction company, Aveng (AEG), which traded at R69 a share in 2008, was reduced to a penny stock. This sad demise was brought about by a number of factors. Among these, the reduction in construction spending following the sub-prime crisis has been critical. The government ceased infrastructure development after the 2010 World Cup, which had a further detrimental impact. This was then followed up by the Competition Commission's R1,4bn fines in the construction industry. The difficult operating environment was made worse by losses on various construction contracts, which have required extensive write-downs and impairments. Its objective has been to focus on McConnell Dowell in Australia and the mining contractor Moolmans, both of which are now profitable. On 26th January 2021, the company announced the terms of a fully underwritten rights issue to raise R300m by selling about 20 billion shares at 1,5c each. Shareholders were offered 103.122 rights for every 100 shares held. This obviously substantially diluted the existing shareholders. On 12th October 2021, the company announced a 500-for-1 consolidation effective 8th December 2021, which resulted in the share price rising to around R28. The company announced the sale of Trident Steel on 3rd May 2023 for R1,2bn - which effectively leaves the company debt-free. The company announced its intention to report in Australian dollars in the future, not rands, because it said 91% of its income was now received in Australian dollars. In its results for the six months to 31st December 2024, the company reported revenue slightly down at A$1,4bn, with a headline loss per share of A$26,7c compared with a profit of A$8,8c in the previous period. The company said, "Aveng's revenue contracted 8.1%, in line with previous guidance, to A$1.4 billion (R16.6 billion) in the interim period ended 31 December 2024 (December 2023: A$1.5 billion (R18.6 billion)), following an expected softening of infrastructure markets in Australia and New Zealand." Prior to this, the share had been moving up since mid-May 2024 and looked to be in a new upward trend. The latest results have seen the share lose most of its gains.
⭐️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices rose again due to concerns about new tariffs from former US President Donald Trump and the deadlock in negotiations between the US and Russia. Trump announced that he would impose tariffs of 25% or more on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and automobiles, putting great pressure on European and Asian economies. This raised concerns about supply chain disruptions and global inflation. In addition, the negotiations between the US and Russia did not progress, causing investors to seek safe assets such as gold and USD. However, the market is still cautiously waiting for the Fed's meeting minutes, because if the Fed maintains its stance of curbing inflation, gold prices may be restrained. ⭐️Technical Analysis Gold prices reacted around the old peak around 2940, proving that buyers are not strong enough to push prices to create a new ATH and need a more suitable price. There are two price levels 2916-1914 and 2906-2904 which are the areas where the Buyers are very interested in jumping into the market. The price range 2924-2934 is considered as this Asia-Europe range for breakout signals when there are signs of crossing.
Quantum (QFH) is in the chicken business. It has four divisions - Animal Feeds, Eggs and Layers, Broilers, and an African division where it sells related products. Quantum was obviously badly impacted by the drought in Southern Africa, but since that abated and the price of animal feeds came down, it has benefited from the much higher prices of eggs and the lower cost of feeds. In general, the chicken business is a tough business. It is labour-intensive, which creates exposure to union action, it involves large quantities of working capital tied up in stock and, to a lesser extent, debtors, it is subject to unexpected disease threats like avian flu or Newcastle disease, and it has experienced the dumping of cheap chicken onto the South African market from Europe, Brazil, and America. With top-class management, a sustainable profit can be achieved, but the industry is regarded as relatively high-risk by investors, which accounts for its low price-earnings (P:E) multiple and its high dividend yield (DY). The unprotected strike at Kaalfontein Farm has restricted output and cost an estimated R10m. The company suffered an outbreak of HPAI at its Lemoenkloof Farm as well as loadshedding and labour unrest. In its results for the year to 30th September 2024, the company reported revenue down 8.9% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 80.4c compared with a loss of 17.4c in the previous period. The company said, "FY2024 will be remembered for the severe impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza (“HPAI”) on our layer farming and egg businesses, the Malmesbury feed mill explosion, leadership changes and dramatic fluctuation in our share price on the back of shareholder activity." In an update for the 4 months to 31st January 2025, the company reported a significant improvement in trading conditions. The company said, "...the Company benefited from improved throughput as a result of a recovery in its layer flock, no loadshedding in South Africa, relatively high egg selling prices and no HPAI outbreaks. Feed costs for the Current Period were relatively stable compared to the Previous Period." Nobody knows what difficulties the business may experience over the next 12-month period. So, if you plan to invest in this share, be prepared for considerable volatility. This company sometimes has difficulty in passing on higher raw materials costs to consumers, especially in the current economic environment.
Is SMCI going to consolidate now or tap into 64.33 key level and then go touch the FVG? Even though we had bullish momentum candle that broke the 50.51 resistance recently, and a bullish MACD(Chris Moody); the Stoch RSI and the RSI and CCI are overbought. Should we wait for a retest of the 50.51 resistance or a pull back to the FVG? What do you all think?
During the Asian trading session, OANDA:XAUUSD spot delivery at about 2,930 USD/ounce; Yesterday the price of gold skyrocketed to 36USSD. On this trading day, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to cause major volatility in the gold market. On Tuesday, as US President Trump's tariff plan sparked market concerns about US economic growth, funds poured into the gold market in search of a safe haven. Spot gold closed up 36.28 USD, equivalent to 1.25%, at 2,934.87 USD/ounce. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting at 02:00 Hanoi time on Thursday. The market expects more information from the minutes on how decision-makers assess the risks of a global trade war that could be triggered by Trump's tariff policy. Last week's data showed the US consumer price index (CPI) rose at its fastest pace in nearly 18 months in January, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's stance that it is in no rush to cut interest rates. The minutes will be closely scrutinized for clues about the Fed's path forward, especially in light of recent data showing solid price growth, weak consumer sentiment and weaker-than-expected retail sales. If the Fed meeting minutes have a tough stance, the US Dollar could be boosted, which would put gold prices at risk of falling. And vice versa, if the minutes show the possibility that the Fed will continue with its goal of cutting interest rates, the USD will weaken and create room for gold prices to increase. CME Group's FedWatch tool now shows that the market actually sees no chance of a rate cut in March and about a 20% chance of a 25 basis point cut in May. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/X991ZJsP-GOLD-rises-above-2-900-USD-again-attention-to-Trump-and-Putin/ Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold's gains were temporarily halted by its all-time high but the technical outlook remains overwhelmingly bullish. The technical structure remains unchanged with the price channel as the main trend and main support by EMA21. As long as gold remains within the price channel, above EMA21, pullbacks should only be considered short-term corrections without changing the trend, and should be seen as a buying opportunity. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not really sent out any reliable signals for a possible downward correction. To summarize, the intraday technical outlook for gold is bullish, notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,911 – 2,900 – 2,881USD Resistance: 2,942USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2955 →Take Profit 1 2943 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2937 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2904 - 2906⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2900 →Take Profit 1 2912 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2918