Bounce of the 0.5 fib and maybe a head and shoulder pattern? Aiming for that 5th wave up
Unhinged SPY analysis for anyone who's interested.
Welcome, - Status: ? Short - BTC in action - TP & SL On chart Keep wait.. Lets see..
Price action has broken through a well-respected descending trendline after multiple rejections, signaling a potential bullish reversal. The latest structure shows a clear sweep of liquidity below the previous low, followed by a strong bullish engulfing and confirmation from a demand zone bounce. ? Entry: Taken post-trendline break and bullish confirmation ? Stop Loss: Placed below the recent demand zone and liquidity sweep ? Target 1: 1.13581 ? Target 2: 1.13895 ? Risk-Reward: 2.52+ Volume and volatility are showing early signs of expansion, supporting the bullish outlook. Will be monitoring price reaction around 1.1350–1.1360 zone for partials.
[ OANDA:GBPJPY ] is approaching the key resistance zone at . I'm watching closely for a valid reaction before considering any position. *** If the level breaks and price retests it successfully, I may consider a counter-directional setup.
? Structure Breakout → Pullback → Consolidation beneath resistance ? Support Zone Multiple rejections from 19,370–19,385 demand zone ? Liquidity Stops likely resting above 19,420 → potential fuel for breakout move ? Candle Behavior Strong rejection candles from demand zone + no bearish follow-through ? Momentum Price failing to make lower lows → bullish pressure building
Near was moving in a bullish direction, making highs and lows. However, in the recent market downturn, the price broke below the baseline support (orange line). This discouraged the investors and pushed the price further down. Near is currently moving under a curved resistance. If it breaks above the resistance, it targets the upper line at 5. However, if it fails to break above the resistance, the bearish target will be 1.34.
1. Key Levels Yesterday’s High: 20,037.0 Yesterday’s Low: 19,658.8 Today’s High (so far): 19,912.4 Current Price: 19,844.4 Price is currently trading below today’s high and below yesterday’s high, but still well above yesterday’s low. 2. Structure & Market Flow The BoS/ChoCh (Break of Structure / Change of Character) indicator marks: Multiple BoS (green) up to the April 30th peak, showing bullish structure. A ChoCh (red) occurred just after the top on April 30, followed by more ChoCh signals, indicating potential short-term bearish momentum. Most recent price action shows consolidation between 19,840–19,912, forming a range after rejecting near today's high. 3. Moving Averages (3EMA) Blue Line (Short EMA - 20): 19,843.0 Purple Line (Mid EMA - 50): 19,840.3 Price is slightly above both the 20 and 50 EMA, which are now flattening — suggesting neutral momentum with no strong trend currently in place. 4. Market Context / Price Action The sharp rejection at 20,037 (yesterday's high) indicates supply pressure. Price wicked above today’s high before dropping below both EMAs. Price bounced around the 50 EMA and appears to be forming lower highs, showing bearish microstructure. Current structure looks like a potential distribution pattern. 5. Trade Ideas (Scenarios) A. Bearish Bias (High Probability if 19,840 breaks cleanly) Entry: Break and close below 19,840 with volume confirmation. TP1: 19,700 (just above yesterday’s low) TP2: 19,658.8 (yesterday’s low) SL: Above 19,912 (today’s high) This setup capitalizes on a rejection of key highs, a ChoCh confirmation, and fading bullish momentum. B. Bullish Scenario (Only if we reclaim today’s high) Entry: Strong 15-min candle close above 19,912, targeting 20,037 and beyond. TP1: 20,037 (yesterday’s high) TP2: 20,100–20,150 (psychological and recent rejection zone) SL: Below 19,840 This would be a breakout-retest continuation trade, but less favorable given current structure. 6. Bias & Recommendation Short Bias is currently favored due to: Repeated ChoCh signals Price trading below today's high and rejecting yesterday’s high Weak upside follow-through despite attempts to push higher Tight consolidation and lower highs forming near resistance
GBPUSD is showing signs of reversal. The bias for me for today is bullish. It experienced a retracement to the current level and is now showing bullish candles and rejections from the liquidity area. I am targeting yesterday's highs but it could go way higher than that with NFP. Leave your thoughts in the comments.
✅ Technical Basis: Bearish divergence spotted on RSI (price making higher high while RSI making lower high). Double top pattern formed at resistance zone. Resistance is holding firm, signaling potential downside.