- Alcoa broke key support level 33.35 - Likely to fall to support level 30.00 Alcoa recently broke the key support level 33.35, which stopped the previous wave b of the active ABC correction 2 from the end of November – as can be seen from the daily Alcoa chart below. The breakout of the support level 33.35 accelerated the active short-term impulse wave c from the start of February. Given the clear daily downtrend, Alcoa can be expected to fall to the next round support level 30.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave c).
? #GBPJPY Buy 188.3 - 188.1 ? Stoploss 187.7 Breakeven 188.35 TakeProfit 1: 188.5 TakeProfit 2: 188.7 TakeProfit 3: 188.9 TakeProfit 4: 189.1 TakeProfit 5: 189.3 TakeProfit 10: 190.3 TakeProfit 20: 192.3 TakeProfit 30: 194.3 Trade at your own risk Protect your capital The Wizard ?♂️ Thursday 02/27/2024 09:15 PM EST
AU200AUD - 24H expiry Price action has continued to trend strongly lower and has stalled at the previous support near 8150. Price action looks to be forming a bottom. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 8250 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 8300. We look to Buy at 8175 (stop at 8125) Our profit targets will be 8275 and 8300 Resistance: 8250 / 8275 / 8300 Support: 8200 / 8175 / 8150 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
? Timeframe: Weekly (1W) | Current Price: ~189.90 ? Bearish Context: Resistance at 192.04: Strong supply zone (red rectangle) where price previously reversed. Aligned with moving averages (likely 50 & 100 periods), acting as dynamic resistance. Support at 184.63: Marked in blue as a significant demand zone. Historical reaction area, where buyers may step in again. ? Current Outlook: Price rejected 192.04, forming a bearish structure. Price currently consolidating below resistance, indicating weakness. If selling pressure continues, a move toward 184.63 is likely. ? Trade Setups: ? Short (Bearish Bias): Entry: Below 189.50 with a bearish confirmation. Target 1: 186.00 Target 2: 184.63 Stop Loss: Above 192.00 to avoid fakeouts. ? Long (Reversal Play): Entry: Strong bullish reaction from 184.63. Target: Retest of 192.04, with SL below 184.00. ? Final Thoughts: The bearish trend remains dominant unless 192.04 is broken. A clean break below 189.50 strengthens the bearish outlook. Macro factors and volatility could influence upcoming price action.
The short version, the probability that Bitcoin tests the breakout price around $69,500 is very high. That's simply the nature of breakouts; bulls take profits (sell orders) until the previous high is reached, at which point the bulls start buying again, and the bears take their profits (buy orders), driving the market up for another leg. The question is, what is our next move as traders? Or even Bitcoin investors? How do we trade this? ? Let's zoom out to the Monthly chart. Bitcoin is resting on the 9EMA, a support area we've closed above it since September of 2023. Our current context is we've broken out of the 2021 cycle high of $69,500 and reached a new high just shy of $110,000. It's clear we're in pullback mode right now, so far-reaching down to $78,000. Fundamentally, there aren't many catalysts for bullish activity. Bulls are simply taking profit at the first 6-figure Bitcoin price, which is both a psychological and technical price for selling. Monetary policy is still in a state of qualitative tightening, inflation has been slowly rising since September 2024, from 2.4% to 3%. Not a dramatic move, which certainly isn't helping Bitcoin move to the upside. Bitcoin seems to respond more to monetary policy than inflation rates and while the rates have steadily climbed, it's not enough to shock the market, while monetary policy has largely stayed the same. Technical analysis shows TOTAL, TOTAL2, and TOTAL3 crypto market cap charts all were rejected at key resistance areas in early December. Bitcoin broke the 2021 right shoulder around $46,000 to $73,000, then had a measured move up to $109,000, about a 55% move each, give or take. We're simply in a state where we've reached a key resistance level after a breakout while the market as a whole is in a state of uncertainty. I believe that uncertainty will lead to a capitulation down to the high $ 60,000s, even if it's a quick wick. This would likely lead to a $1,500 ETH, $1.50 XRP, it may look ugly. But take a look at past cycles; a 30-40% pullback for Bitcoin is just another Thursday in the crypto market. The alts can pull back as much as 50%-60%. I think we wait for the buy signal. Look for a pullback to the breakout area at $69,500, and wait for the market to tell us that we found the buy zone with a strong candle close on or near its high on the Daily chart, likely somewhere around $75,000. Then I believe $150,000 is the area for this cycle high based on the Lifetime Resistance and measured move target. The measured move shows a 57% move up after the breakout; if we take that 57% move up and stack it on the mid-price of the current trading range at $91,000, that takes us to right around $150,000. Anything beyond that is a bonus. I think from there, it makes a second attempt to breach the high, followed by our 12-18 month bear market as shown in the chart. https://www.tradingview.com/x/wc6Uro76/ ? Trade Idea ? Long Entry: $75,000 ? Stop Loss: $55,000 ✅ Take Profit #1: $105,000 ✅ Take Profit #2: $135,000 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3 ? Key Takeaways ? 1. Breakout above 2021 Cycle High $69,500 2. Psychological and technical high of $100,000 reached 3. Pullback phase has been in motion since December, breakout zone is the buy target 4. Wait for a two-legged pullback toward the Monthly 30EMA (breakout zone), look for strong buy signal, large bull candle closing on or near its high. 5. RSI is near 64.00 and below the Moving Average. Wait for contact and a drop toward 60.00 in concurrence with the price action to enter. ? Trading Tip ? It's reasonable to take half profits at the first resistance target in a long trade, or the first support target in a short trade. Using a 1:1 Risk/Reward Ratio for your first target, you can move your stop loss up to your entry price, locking in profits. This allows you to watch the rest of the trade execute without worry of losing money. This helps improve trading psychology and the equity in your account. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like ? and Follow to learn more about: 1. Reading Price Action 2. Chart Analysis 3. Trade Management 4. Trading Psychology
The price has reached the ceiling of the gbpnzd price channel, it looks like we could see a price decline keep in mind that we are in a bullish channel!
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