Real Success Rates of the Falling Wedge in Trading The falling wedge is a chart pattern highly valued by traders for its potential for bullish reversals after a bearish or consolidation phase. Its effectiveness has been extensively studied and documented by various technical analysts and leading authors. Key Statistics Bullish Exit: In 82% of cases, the exit from the falling wedge is upward, making it one of the most reliable patterns for anticipating a positive reversal. Price Target Achieved: The pattern's theoretical target (calculated by plotting the height of the wedge at the breakout point) is achieved in approximately 63% to 88% of cases, depending on the source, demonstrating a high success rate for profit-taking. Trend Reversal: In 55% to 68% of cases, the falling wedge acts as a reversal pattern, signaling the end of a downtrend and the beginning of a new bullish phase. Pullback: After the breakout, a pullback (return to the resistance line) occurs in approximately 53% to 56% of cases, which can provide a second entry opportunity but tends to reduce the pattern's overall performance. False Breakouts: False exits represent between 10% and 27% of cases. However, a false bullish breakout only results in a true bearish breakout in 3% of cases, making the bullish signal particularly robust. Performance and Context Bull Market: The pattern performs particularly well when it appears during a corrective phase of an uptrend, with a profit target reached in 70% of cases within three months. Gain Potential: The maximum gain potential can reach 32% in half of cases during a bullish breakout, according to statistical studies on equity markets. Formation Time: The wider the wedge and the steeper the trend lines, the faster and more violent the post-breakout upward movement will be. Comparative Summary of Success Rates: Criteria Rate Observed Frequency Bullish Exit 82% Price Target Achieved 63% to 88% Reversal Pattern 55% to 68% Pullback After Breakout 53% to 56% False Breakouts (False Exits) 10% to 27% Bullish False Breakouts Leading to a Downside 3% Points of Attention The falling wedge is a rare and difficult pattern to correctly identify, requiring at least five contact points to be valid. Performance is best when the breakout occurs around 60% of the pattern's length and when volume increases at the time of the breakout. Pullbacks, although frequent, tend to weaken the initial bullish momentum. Conclusion The falling wedge has a remarkable success rate, with more than 8 out of 10 cases resulting in a bullish exit and a price target being reached in the majority of cases. However, it remains essential to validate the pattern with other technical signals (volume, momentum) and to remain vigilant against false breakouts, even if their rate is relatively low. When mastered, this pattern proves to be a valuable tool for traders looking for optimized entry points on bullish reversals.
Entry: Sell around 1.06850–1.06880 Stop Loss: Above the most recent swing high (~1.07050) Take Profit: Initial TP around 1.06600, with extended TP near 1.06350 --- Reasons for Entry: 1. Bearish Trend Continuation: The overall movement shows a series of lower highs and lower lows—typical bearish price action. 2. Resistance Zone: 1.06850–1.06900 has acted as resistance recently. 3. Lack of Bullish Momentum: After the retracement, bulls are not showing strength to break above resistance. 4. Risk-Reward Setup: Around 1:2 R:R ratio makes it a relatively favorable setup. --- If you're more conservative, you could wait for a break and close below 1.06700 on a strong bearish candle as a confirmation. Want me to draw zones or trendlines on it for visual clarity? NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT FOR RESEARCH PURPOSES ONLY
You missed the news? Doesn’t matter. The chart already heard it for you. ________________________________________ 1. The Myth of Being “Informed” Modern traders feel pressured to be constantly plugged in: • Twitter alerts • Trump’s latest outburst • CNBC headlines It feels like you’re missing out if you’re not watching everything. But here’s the truth: By the time you read the news, the market already priced it in. Being "informed" doesn’t make you early . It usually makes you late . ________________________________________ 2. The Chart Already Knows Imagine a bullish surprise in the economy. You didn’t catch it live. But when you open your chart, you see this: ? A bullish engulfing candle bouncing cleanly off major support. That’s all you need. That’s your trade. You don’t need to know why it happened. The chart speaks last. And the chart speaks loudest. ________________________________________ 3. Price Is the Final Judge All the noise — opinions, reports, breaking headlines — flows into a single output: price. • Economic collapse? The chart shows a break. • Political turmoil? Price still rejects resistance. Price is truth. Instead of asking: " What happened? ", start asking: " What is price doing? " ________________________________________ 4. Real-Life Analogy You don’t need to read the newspaper to know it’s raining. Just look out the window. ?️ Same with trading. Just look at the chart. The price is your weather forecast. React to that. Not to noise. ________________________________________ 5. What to Do Instead of Watching News: • Draw clean support/resistance levels • Wait for real confirmation (engulfings, breakouts, rejections) • Manage risk — always • Be patient. Let the market show its hand ________________________________________ Final Thought: If something important happened, you’ll see it on the chart. You don’t need 10 sources. You don’t need speed. You need clarity. Let the chart speak. It knows more than the news ever will.
TAO is breaking $350 and its moving ahead to $450 after that a normal correction towards the range break out and then we will see the next move Ahead of the $450 to $750
Ethereum has recently shown a strong recovery from the $1500 level and is now trading near a significant resistance zone around $1830. According to technical analysis, if the price breaks below the nearby support at $1766, the next potential downside targets are $1695, $1628, and $1567. In the event of further selling pressure, ETH could decline toward $1509, which marks a strong historical support zone. This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Please conduct your own research before making any investment or trading decisions.
Greetings Traders! In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we observe a momentary shift into bearish institutional order flow, confirmed by the formation of successive lower lows. This structural development signals the potential for continued downside movement. Key Observations: Bearish Institutional Order Flow: The consistent break of lows supports a bearish bias, providing a framework for seeking short opportunities in alignment with institutional intent. Confluent Bearish Arrays: Key bearish arrays—including the mitigation block and a reclaimed order block—are currently aligned. These zones, if respected, could serve as strong resistance and provide high-probability entry areas for short positions. Trading Strategy: Should price retrace into these arrays and provide confirmation, we can look to enter sell positions with the expectation of further downside aligned with the prevailing order flow. Stay disciplined, remain patient, and trade only with confirmation. Kind Regards, The Architect
On the 4-hour chart, XAUUSD fluctuated and fell, and the bears have the upper hand. At present, attention can be paid to the resistance near 3367. If the rebound is not broken, it is expected to start to fall. The support below is around 3260. If it falls below, it is expected to form an AB=CD pattern, with a target near 3132.
Confirms diverguity Structure break H1 We are looking for a test at the previous minimum
Recently price came down and tapped into an old Daily FVG. Yesterday's candle closed above the FVG signifying no interest to continue lower. Today I was looking for long set ups and this is the outcome. There's a probability that price will bounce back after retracing to that discount level where we have the FVG + OB and a confluence of iFVG with other lower TF confluences. Let's see how price will play this out. Safe trading guys.
#BTCUSDT - well after a fantastic bull run market placed a reasonable high in yesterday, Keep close that region b cause if market hold it in that case we can expect a drop from here. Good luck Trade wisley