expecting a don mode as its form M pattern so expecting small up retracement then down after get 1:2 rr get to breakeven
We're currently analyzing the 30M timeframe of GBPCAD, where the market price is forming a range. The key question is: which direction will the price break? 1: If the price breaks upwards, we'll enter a buy trade, targeting 1.77880. 2:If it breaks downwards, we’ll look to execute a sell trade, with targets at 1.76510 and 1.76260. Candle confirmation is essential, and we'll only execute the trade once we have that confirmation in hand. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper R:R ratio. #GBPCAD 30M Technical Analyze Expected Move.
This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section First and foremost, pay attention to the timeframe. The 2-day timeframe is lengthy and requires patience. It seems that COMP is currently within wave F of a large diametric pattern. Wave F is bearish. The time correction of wave F still appears to be ongoing. The green zone is a low-risk area for BUY positions. Considering the large entry zone and the timeframe, this position is more suitable for spot trading. The closure of a daily candle below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
banknifty trading chanel so taking trade at top ogf the chanal first target will be center line of chanal and second target will be bottom of chanal entrty has been activated lets see if i get target or SL
Memecoins like PEPE are not just random internet jokes—they’re evolving into financial instruments that mirror Bitcoin’s price patterns. As Bitcoin climbs, so does PEPE, and when Bitcoin takes a dip, memecoins like PEPE follow suit. Just check the graph how similar they are. PEPE Follows Bitcoin: Why we see the Correlation? 1. Liquidity and Market Sentiment: Bitcoin dominates the crypto market, often serving as a barometer for investor sentiment. When BTC rises, it lifts the overall market, including memecoins like PEPE. Conversely, a Bitcoin slump sends ripples of fear through the crypto community, dragging PEPE down as well. 2. Institutional Impact: Institutions have begun to recognize Bitcoin as a legitimate asset, driving its adoption and price stability. While memecoins don’t enjoy the same institutional backing, they still benefit indirectly from Bitcoin’s market moves, as investors pour profits into high-risk, high-reward assets like PEPE during bull markets. 3. Speculation and Herd Mentality: The memecoin market thrives on speculation. When Bitcoin rallies, retail investors often seek “the next big thing,” leading them to memecoins. PEPE, with its meme-worthy branding and vibrant community, becomes an attractive option. So what will be your take? Is there a point to be in PEPE at the stage, when you see clear simulation pattern? Or you enjoy the volatility?
The H4 H1 structure shows we are continuing trend down With reversal structure and h1 breaking down some support The target is at the lows
Oil Algorithmic Traders Loosen Grip on Market After Back-to-Back Annual Losses A Shift in the Oil Trading Landscape In the intricate world of oil trading, where fortunes are made and lost on the fluctuations of prices, a significant shift is underway. Algorithmic traders, the computer-driven entities that have come to dominate the market, are pulling back after enduring two consecutive years of losses.1 This retreat marks a notable change in the oil market dynamics, potentially paving the way for a more balanced and predictable trading environment. The Rise of Algorithmic Trading Over the past decade, algorithmic trading, also known as automated or high-frequency trading, has revolutionized financial markets, and the oil market is no exception.2 These sophisticated systems employ complex algorithms and statistical models to identify and exploit trading opportunities at speeds that are impossible for human traders to match.3 Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), a prominent class of algorithmic traders, specialize in trend-following strategies.4 They capitalize on market trends by buying when prices are rising and selling when prices are falling. Their ability to execute trades rapidly and efficiently has made them a dominant force in the oil market, often amplifying price swings and influencing market direction.5 The Tide Turns for Algorithmic Traders However, the reign of algorithmic traders in the oil market has faced a significant setback. According to Bridgeton Research Group, which tracks computer-generated trades, CTAs have posted consecutive annual losses for the first time in more than a decade.6 This downturn can be attributed to several factors, including increased market volatility, unexpected geopolitical events, and the inherent limitations of trend-following strategies in rapidly changing market conditions. As a result of these losses, CTAs are reducing their exposure to crude oil.7 It is estimated that they have decreased the weight of crude in their portfolios to a mere 2% compared to 4% in July 2024.8 This pullback is softening their impact on market movements and reducing their share of open interest, signaling a significant shift in the oil trading landscape.9 The Impact on the Oil The retreat of algorithmic traders from the oil market has several potential implications: 1. Reduced Market Market Volatility: Algorithmic trading, particularly trend-following strategies, has been known to exacerbate price swings in the oil market.10 With their reduced presence, the market may experience less volatility and more gradual price movements. 2. Increased Influence of Fundamental Factors: As the influence of algorithmic trading wanes, fundamental factors such as supply and demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical events may play a more prominent role in determining oil prices. 3. Opportunities for Traditional Traders: The pullback of algorithmic traders could create opportunities for traditional traders who rely on fundamental analysis and market expertise. With less competition from high-speed algorithms, these traders may find it easier to identify and capitalize on profitable trading opportunities. 4. A More Balanced Market: The reduced dominance of algorithmic trading could lead to a more balanced and efficient oil market, where a wider range of factors and participants determines prices. The Future of Algorithmic Trading in Oil While algorithmic traders are currently taking a step back from the oil market, it is unlikely that they will disappear entirely. These sophisticated systems still offer significant advantages in terms of speed, efficiency, and data analysis. As technology continues to advance, algorithmic trading is expected to remain an integral part of the financial landscape. However, the recent losses serve as a reminder that algorithmic trading is not without its risks. These systems are only as good as the algorithms and data they are based on. In rapidly changing and unpredictable markets, even the most sophisticated algorithms can struggle to generate consistent profits. Conclusion The retreat of algorithmic traders from the oil market marks a significant turning point. After years of dominating the trading landscape, these computer-driven entities are pulling back, potentially paving the way for a more balanced and less volatile market. While the long-term impact remains to be seen, this shift underscores the dynamic nature of financial markets and the importance of adapting to changing conditions.
How often do US equities deliver 20%+ annual returns sequentially? The S&P 500 index representing a broad selection of US listed firms generated 24.2% in 2023 and 23.3% in 2024. https://www.tradingview.com/x/FYrEJr5j/ Source: Visual Capitalist So, what is in store for 2025? Analyst consensus points to a 10% upside in 2025 given strong economic fundamentals, AI-led capex and productivity gains, and robust earnings. YEAR AFTER ELECTION IS KNOWN TO BE BULLISH FOR US EQUITIES Adding to that, historically, the S&P 500 has been bullish during the first year of new US Presidency in a four-year cycle. Since the results of the US election on November 6 2024, more than USD 15 billion has flown into the US equities over the last two months. Historical trends in the S&P 500 from election day to year-end show a positive 4% median return. The average return for Year 1 of the election cycle is 6.7%, which is higher than Year 2's 3.3% but lower than the third year at 13.5%. https://www.tradingview.com/x/2J1Gg62t/ Source: Plante Moran Wealth Management These trends are in line with the assumption that newly elected Presidents attempt to keep up electoral promises and direct resources toward significant legislative efforts during their first two years in office, before shifting focus to more market-friendly policies in Year 3. WILL AI SAVE THE DAY OR CRUSH IT? AI’s anticipated transformative impact is the cornerstone of US equity resilience. The Magnificent Seven have been at the forefront of this revolution, benefiting from outsized capex and advancements that aim to redefine productivity. Corporate earnings are projected to grow annually by 7%–14% in 2025, adding further strength. Structural shifts in capital allocation toward AI-driven industries are expected to sustain sectoral leadership, driving equity markets higher. Economic fundamentals remain robust, with GDP growth expected at 2.3% (above the long-term average). The S&P 500 P/E Ratio Forward Estimate is at 23.55x, down from 24.60x last quarter & 28.16x a year ago. While expectations have eased and are testing levels of Q2 2023, concerns are aplenty on existing valuations being priced to perfection. https://www.tradingview.com/x/5Q6OHUr8/ Source: YCharts Historically, elevated valuations have been accompanied by speculative mania, such as the dot-com bubble when tech stocks traded at multiples exceeding 100x earnings. By contrast, today’s forward P/E ratio of 23.5x is high relative to the post-war average of 16 but remains far below the extremes of past bubbles. Take Nvidia for example. It trades at a forward multiple in the low 30s, but is also supported by its dominance in AI, projected double-digit earnings growth, and mind blowing RoE. For the quarter ending October 2024, NVIDIA’s return on equity was >116%. Viewed in this lens, the pricing contrasts sharply with the speculative fervour of the 1990s when companies with no profits were valued based on “eyeballs”. Moreover, concentrated market leadership is not new but has become more pronounced. The market capitalisation of the seven largest components of the S&P 500 at about $17.8 trillion represents almost 35% of the index’s total capitalisation. This is double their share from five years ago and higher than the 22% seen during the bubble in 2000. Today’s high valuations and concentrated dominance are backed by structural profitability and scale advantages, such as Meta's USD 44 billion in annual free cash flow in 2023 and Apple's nearly USD 400 billion in revenue in recent years. TEMPER BULLISH SENTIMENTS WITH PRUDENCE Bullishness aside, the S&P 500 is projected to deliver modest returns of approximately 3% per annum over the next ten years, as per Goldman Sachs . Morgan Stanley shares a similar sentiment for the long-term, but also states a 9% upside outlook for 2025. Prudence remains paramount. Expected structural shifts in fiscal and monetary policies, elevated valuations, and geopolitical risks, all temper long-term return expectations while creating a precarious yet opportunity-packed macro backdrop. Justifications for high valuations notwithstanding, concerns persist about the limited scope for significant market upsides, and the increased risk of corrections if earnings disappoint or macroeconomic conditions turn shaky. Geopolitical tensions, including the US-China trade disputes among other regional conflicts, could spring major shocks as well. Nearly two-thirds of about 900 executives surveyed by McKinsey & Co. assess geopolitical instability as top risk to global growth. In a nutshell, expect to navigate this year with a delicate balance between opportunities and underlying risks lurking in the dark. VOLATILITY CONTINUES TO BE SANGUINE Volatility for the S&P 500 remains sanguine. The current VIX at 16.77% indicates low volatility, despite potential headwinds. Is this the calm before the storm? https://www.tradingview.com/x/mQcRdmf9/ A subdued VIX might be under-pricing potential risks ahead. A volatile geopolitical landscape, thanks to a President-elect who is known to be “predictably unpredictable,” could lead to episodic volatility spikes. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET-UP Prudent portfolio manager can exploit low volatility by deploying tactical risk management strategies such as reverse iron butterflies. CME Group offers options on Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures which enables granular and affordable portfolio hedging strategies. Using these feature-rich products, portfolio managers can construct prudent risk management positions to limit downside risk while also gaining from upside price moves. A reverse iron butterfly consists of four legs. Two legs, representing a long call and a long put option at-the-money, combined with an out-of-the-money short call and an out-of-the-money short put. The premiums collected from the two short legs offset the premiums to be paid for the two long option positions. Using CME QuikStrike , a portfolio manager can easily construct a reverse iron butterfly options spread expiring on 18th July 2025. https://www.tradingview.com/x/O8NAUwn3/ A net premium of 311.602 index points is required for the reverse iron butterfly spread. It comprises of (a) long 6050 call (255.533 debit), (b) long 6050 put (247.712 debit), (c) short 5600 put (130.478 credit), and (d) short 6500 call (61.165 credit) as of 9th Jan 2024. Each index point represents USD 5 translating into the net premium of 311.602 index points into USD 1,558.01 in total cost per lot. The pay-off of this spread at expiry is illustrated in the table and the chart below. https://www.tradingview.com/x/4L9BDxW4/ The spread breaks-even when the underlying CME Micro S&P 500 Futures contract falls below 5738 points (5.2% fall) or rises above 6362 points (5.2% rise). The maximum upside of this trade at expiry is USD 691 if the futures contract settles (a) at or above 6550 or, (b) at or below 5550. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZL3Id0Uh/ MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. 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CHZ Update ~ 1W #CHZ If you still have Conviction on this coin,. maybe this support block is a good price to start buying back.
Following the realization of the previous analysis (attached to this report) , Bitcoin is currently forming a neutral pattern of an expanding type on the 4-hour time frame. If this scenario is in the process of completion, the final wave movement should not break the $89,925-$88,300 level. As long as this level is not breached, a price rebound and support are expected, with minimum targets of $99,000 and $101,000.