NASDAQ:AMD false breakout. I was wrong. AMD tends to recover after a 14% to 16% drawdown. So, we could expect a recovery, even if it’s brief. It’s way too early, but it might be starting to form an inverse head-and-shoulders bottom.?
CME: Micro Bitcoin Futures ( CME:MBT1! ) On the morning of March 2nd, President Donald Trump posted a tweet to reinforce his commitment to a Crypto Strategic Reserve, including XRP, SOL and ADA. Cryptocurrency market took off immediately. Despite not being mentioned in the tweet, Bitcoin shot up from $78,400 to $83,900, and Ethereum from $2,090 to $2,240. Later in the afternoon, President Trump posted an update and clarified that BTC and ETH will be in the Reserve. “I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum!”, he tweeted. At the time of this writing, BTC is quoted $94,308, up 20.3% since the first tweet. ETH is trading at $2,520, up 20.6% within the day. https://www.tradingview.com/x/x5CQOvmt/ We are in a new age of cryptocurrencies, where BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA just gained the official backing of the US Government. This day has been in the making for months. • On May 24, 2024, then presidential candidate Trump promised to launch a national crypto stockpile if he wins the election. Investors warmed to this idea and Bitcoin lifted 18% • On November 5, 2024, Trump won the US election. Market cheered for the most pro-crypto president and Bitcoin shot up 57% in a month • On January 23, 2025, President Trump signed the “Executive Order to establish United States leadership on digital financial technology.” Bitcoin went up 17% • Recent events have brought bitcoin down 28% since reaching its all-time-high of $109,241. In a matter of two tweets, the crypto market has completely turned around Bitcoin for the Long Haul A year ago, I published this market commentary, “A Bitcoin Bull Run?”, and laid out the key drivers for bitcoin’s long-term rise. https://www.tradingview.com/i/O6XUelzF/ Limited supply, increased demand and excessive liquidity helped bitcoin prices doubled in a year. In my opinion, these tailwinds remains intact for bitcoin in the coming months. On top of these, we now have the explicit endorsement from a sitting US president. Therefore, I stay bullish for holding bitcoin for the long haul. Trading with Micro Bitcoin Futures On “HODL with a Twist”, published on May 6, 2024, I explored using Futures Rollover strategy to invest in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures ( LSE:MBT ). This strategy worked nicely in the past, and I favor to continue deploying it. The paragraphs below provide a brief update with new contract months and new price data. https://www.tradingview.com/i/yLTswLAu/ Firstly, using futures over spot bitcoin provides these compelling advantages: • Capital efficiency in using margins. A trader could invest with as little as $2,075 to take on the full exposure of $9,431 (1/10th of a bitcoin) • Futures contracts come with build-in leverage. For MBT, it is approximately 4.5 times (= 9431/2075). If bitcoin moves 10% in your favor, you could gain 45% with futures • Price protection. MBT has a daily price limit (limit-up and limit-down) at 10%. In a volatile day with big moves, the Exchange will pause trading at the prescribed limits Secondly, futures contracts have a limited lifespan that will influence the outcome of your trades and exit strategy. Micro Bitcoin futures are traded actively in the nearby March and April contracts. Liquidity in the back-month contracts has yet to pick up. Rollover is when a trader moves his position from the front month contract to another contract further in the future, prior to the expiration of his existing holding. Below is an illustration on how to hold a long MBT position overtime: • In March, a trader buys (going long) April contract (MBTJ5) at $94,308 • In April, the trader enters an offsetting trade, going short on MBTJ5, to close his existing position. He would book a profit or loss, determined by the difference in selling price and purchasing price • Simultaneously, the trader would buy May MBT contract (MBTK5) and re-establish a long position in Bitcoin • In May, the trader will close out MBTK5 (going short) and buy June (MBTM5) • The trader would repeat the above steps, so far as he holds a bullish view Finally, Bitcoin prices are extremely volatile. Holding spot Bitcoin with no leverage could face potential drawdown of 70%-80%. With the leverage in futures, a sharp price move in the wrong direction could quickly deplete the available fund and trigger margin calls. Trader could set up a stop-loss in the buy order, limiting the maximum loss. Hypothetically, he could set the stop-loss at $85,000 when executing long futures at $94,308. If bitcoin moves sharply down, the maximum loss will be $931 (= (94308-85000)*0.1). His margin account will be decreased to $1,144 from $2,075. To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/microsuite.html Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs https://www.tradingview.com/cme/
GBPNZD - Clear winner on this pair if the trend will continue we can find good buy opportunities this week.
Personally, I consider the marked area as a potential zone for a price reversal Of course, considering the trend, it comes with risk
Last week we saw the Bitcoin PA Drop down and begin filling that existing CME gap, that had opened in Nov 2024 CME Gaps ALWAYS get filled I said. And they usualy do PA got down to 78600 and bounced back up. It had NOT completely filled the Gap, leaving a gap from 78600 down to 77920. This is a small gap But significant in that the BTC Bulls pushed PA up before the gap was filled....waving 2 fingers at he CME. CME Closes for the Weekend and the price at close on Friday evening was around 85345 I thought we were going to see PA turn and drop back down to complete the Fill..I even had a Spot Buy order down there.. BUT NO - The Bulls arrived again and BANG- When CME opened for the New weeks trading, Bitcoin was up at EXACTLY 95K This had created a NEW gap, with the remains of the older one just below. And so now, Whats next ? Since then, PA dropped to 91635, Filling a more recent smaller gap and has since then, pushed back up higher. When will the Bigger new Gap get filled ? We have a number of possible scenarios and I think my preferred one is that we revisit the Lower levels, Fill the Gap and at the same time, continue to cool off that Still Bearish weekly MACD., whihc, once at Neutral, will have more than enough ability to push to s decent new Cycle ATH in Q4 Another option is that BTC PA ranges high, for Longer and Cools off that Weekly MACD, till around June, Leave the gap open for a later date OR, PA Simply pushes to a New ATH now, exhausts itself and falls hard after, filling the Gap as it plunges to 65K or Lower. Take your pick The MACRO side of Xrypto now is noce but I do worry about how this cold all just make Bitcoin rise to Fast and go POP at the top We need to continue the Slow Steady rise, maintain a balance and act like Adults..Not like Teenagers with a new Bag of Sweets. Be REALLY careful righ tnow, But MAKE MONEY TOO But remain cautious. This Gap WILL GET FILLED ONE DAY
This is a technical analysis chart for USD/JPY, showing a potential bearish reversal after a breakout attempt. Analysis: Key Levels: Resistance: Near 151.039 (recent high, indicated by the blue arrow). Support: Around 150.500 and 150.000 (marked within the red consolidation box). Market Structure: The price was consolidating in a range (red box). It broke out briefly above resistance, but the breakout appears weak. The price is now falling back inside the range, indicating a fakeout. Potential Trade Setup: Bearish Bias: If the price fails to hold above 151.039, it may retest the lower range. Target Levels: First target: Around 150.500 (mid-range support). Second target: Around 150.000 (lower support of the range). Stop Loss (SL): Above 151.039, in case of another breakout attempt. Volume Confirmation: The volume spiked on the breakout, but the quick rejection suggests a lack of strong buying pressure. If volume increases on the way down, it supports a bearish move. Trading Bias: Bearish short-term outlook due to fake breakout and rejection at resistance. Expecting a move back into the range, potentially testing lower support levels.
1. Technical Analysis: Trend: Check if NZD/CAD is in an uptrend on the daily or 4-hour chart. Look for higher highs and higher lows. Support/Resistance: Identify key support levels where the price might bounce. A break above resistance could signal further bullish momentum. Indicators: Use tools like RSI (Relative Strength Index) to check for overbought/oversold conditions. A bullish divergence on RSI could indicate potential upward movement. Moving Averages: If the price is above key moving averages (e.g., 50 EMA or 200 EMA), it could support a bullish bias. 2. Fundamental Analysis: NZD Strength: Look for positive economic data from New Zealand (e.g., GDP, employment, or inflation data). Stronger NZD data could push the pair higher. CAD Weakness: Weaker oil prices (Canada is a major oil exporter) or dovish signals from the Bank of Canada (BoC) could weaken the CAD, supporting NZD/CAD upside. Risk Sentiment: NZD is a risk-sensitive currency. If global risk sentiment improves (e.g., rising equity markets), NZD/CAD could benefit.
The chart showcases a well-defined harmonic pattern, the Shark, with the price reaching the terminal zone at 1.2670 , marked by a red downward triangle. This suggests a potential reversal zone where selling pressure may emerge. Key observations: The price has reacted strongly at the completion point, aligning with Fibonacci extensions. Overbought conditions are evident in the RSI and other momentum indicators, indicating potential exhaustion of the bullish trend. Target levels: T1: 1.26241 T2: 1.25741 Suggests a possible downside move if the reversal confirms. Traders should watch for bearish confirmation before entering short positions, while bulls may seek a break above 1.2670 for further upside.
Es wurde bereits zuvor klargestellt, dass jeder dazu angehalten ist, Short-Positionen einzugehen, wenn der Markt steigt. Verlassen Sie sich beim direkten Handel auf 2875. Je mehr es steigt, desto entschiedener sollten Sie shorten. Heute gab es zwei Rückgangswellen. Das Eröffnen eines Short bei 2871 in der asiatischen Sitzung bietet einen guten Gewinnraum bei der Linie 2858! Vielleicht wird der heutige Rückgang nicht so groß sein wie am vergangenen Freitag. Immerhin gab es am Morgen eine Welle von Pull-ups, und die Long-Short-Wasserscheide von 2.858 USD scheint sich gehalten zu haben. Der Grund, warum es einen kleinen Rückgang statt eines starken Rückgangs gab, liegt darin, dass die Bären nur dann einen starken Rückgang beschleunigen werden, wenn diese Position gebrochen wird und der Markt niedriger schließt. Nach der aktuellen Tages- und Stundenchartstruktur hat Gold die zuvor erwartete mittelfristige Unterstützung der zweiten Stufe von 2850 erreicht. Es ist unvermeidlich, dass der kurzfristige Markt aufhört zu fallen und sich erholt. Gemessen an der aktuellen Stärke der Erholung haben die Bullen jedoch immer noch keine Möglichkeit, wieder aufzutauchen, und die Fundamentaldaten bieten keine Bedingungen für Bullenspekulationen. Daher ist der aktuelle Rückgang des Goldpreises eher ein Anpassungsmomentum, das durch die vorherigen Gewinnmitnahmebullen hervorgerufen wurde. Aus mittelfristiger Sicht ist 2850 darunter der erwartete zweite Schritt. Für die nächste Operation wird empfohlen, den Shortverkauf bei 2876–2878 fortzusetzen, mit einem Ziel von 2866–2856.
Cardano (ADA) steht an einem entscheidenden Punkt. Nach einem beeindruckenden Anstieg traf der Kurs auf einen starken Widerstand bei etwa 1,15 USD und prallte von dort ab. Doch das große Bild zeigt eine spannende Entwicklung – sowohl technisch als auch fundamental. Die jüngste Rallye brachte ADA über wichtige gleitende Durchschnitte und testete die rote Widerstandszone. Hier setzten Gewinnmitnahmen ein, und der RSI deutet eine kurzfristige Überhitzung an. Doch das wahre Potenzial könnte noch vor uns liegen. Denn im Hintergrund braut sich etwas Großes zusammen: Berichten zufolge plant die Strategic Crypto Reserve der USA, ADA neben Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana und XRP zu halten. Diese mögliche institutionelle Anerkennung könnte Cardano einen enormen Schub geben. Wenn diese Berichte sich bestätigen, wäre dies nicht nur ein Vertrauensbeweis, sondern auch ein Signal für massives Kapital, das in ADA fließen könnte. Der aktuelle Rücksetzer könnte also eine perfekte Kaufgelegenheit darstellen. Sollte ADA über 1,15 USD ausbrechen, öffnet sich der Weg in Richtung 1,60 USD und darüber. Fällt der Kurs jedoch unter die Unterstützungszone bei 0,87 USD, könnte ein erneuter Test der langfristigen Trendlinie folgen. Die nächsten Tage werden entscheidend. Die technischen Marken sind klar – und die fundamentalen Entwicklungen könnten für eine echte Kurs-Explosion sorgen.