Price is still trending down. I took a trade last night from the higher OB to the bottom of the range and it closed strong below the range. I will be looking for price to retrace back up into this 30M OB and will be watching lower time frame price action for confirmation to take it back down to the low. If price does not retrace back up that far and then continues to close below the current swing low, this trade will be invalidated.
In my last post on BTC I concentrated on forks and cycles so I thought I’d concentrate on Elliot Wave which presents me with a possible bullish outcome in the coming month. On the 1D timeframe and starting from the bear market low of Nov 2022 EW shows a 5 wave impulse move topping out May 2024. This is followed by a shallow ABC pattern launching into another 5 wave impulse ending with a shallow wave 5 Jan 2025. Presently BTC is in an ABC move down towards the wave 2 pullback where the 50% is sitting at 73.4k. This “may” be another shallow pullback and not get down that far but presently it kinda looks like it might. Once wave 3 starts it could take BTC up towards 260k area. I like this theory mainly because of the global situation in that, there appears to be tons of BTC adoption going on around the world. Whales are apparently buying up BTC a record levels. Smart money is called smart money because well, they’re smart, so why buy in when BTC is gonna drop like crazy. Retail is nowhere to be found. I think retail got lost in the shit for brains meme market and will be way late to this party. My thoughts, not financial advice Oklah. Cheers
BTC ~ 1W Analysis #BTC It's hard to say this, but this is the end. We are still sure bullish isn't over yet.
Short Term Elliott Wave View in FTSE suggests that cycle from 11.13.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from there, wave ((i)) ended at 8388.37 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 8002.34. Wave ((iii)) higher subdivided into another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 8326.32 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 8192.31. Wave (iii) higher ended at 8584.73 and dips in wave (iv) ended at 8462.18 as the 1 hour chart below shows. The Index then resumed higher. Up from wave (iv), wave i ended at 8692.84 and wave ii pullback ended at 8520.2. Wave iii higher ended at 8767.5 and pullback in wave iv ended at 8685.78. Final leg wave v ended at 8820.93 which completed wave (v) of ((iii)). Pullback in wave ((iv)) is currently in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (w) ended at 8638.63 and wave ((x)) ended at 8768.05. Expect the Index to extend lower in wave (y) of ((iv)) to reach 8475 – 8587 area before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 8818.31 high stays intact, expect rally to fail for further downside.
With XRP having broke through its daily uptrend and now at its weekly resistance set by the lows of December 2024, its next point of interest will be ~$2.60 - $2.90. Around the middle of March 2025, the downtrend formed by the January 2025 high would be converging with the December 2024 - February 2025 uptrend that was broken. Price has now broken below the 50 day and 100 day SMAs. With the 50 day SMA looking to cross at this convergence point at ~$2.70 and the 100 day SMA trailing the broken daily trendline to meet at ~$2.55, this could gear up for a wicked rejection that could move south fast. With the bounce XRP has taken recently, it could look to retest its highs from March 2021 to November 2021. With the 50 WMA looking to target ~$1.50 in May 2025, this initial breakdown below the weekly resistance line set by the December 2024 - January 2025 could quickly find itself retesting the late November 2024 distribution, and the secondary breakdown could target the middle November 2024 distribution. Entry: $2.70 - $3.00 Ideal Entry Average: $2.85 T1: $1.50 T2: $1.25
Everything I said on December 17th 2024 2 months ago when Bitcoin was at 106,549 is below ?. Nothing has changed on my view except for the next leg after this. 35k to 48k. Caution to all traders out there. There's a lot of hype in the market right now and predictions of insane price targets for BTC from 250k to 1 million per coin in 2025 same thing once again just a different cycle guys. Remember men and women lie but the charts don't lie. The most positive amounts of news will generally come out right before every major breakout and right before a market top. This is simply done for a purpose and that purpose is to provide more liquidity for the big players during those times. We have a 7 year trend line close to hitting. We are in the finally stage of this bull market based on the Elliot wave theory. Volume and strength is weakening. We have bearish divergence on a lot of major timeframes. This is my opinion only and not financial advice here. Do your own research and make your own trading decisions. I don't like to make market top predictions on BTC but I will go as far to say that we are very very close. The first major correction we will go see that 70k to 75k area and more than likely have a big bounce from there back up to create a lower high double top. Then the next big drop after that I want say where the price target area will be just yet. I will update when the time is right though on what I'm seeing based on the charts. Happy Trading guys. Be cautious. Stay clear headed. Make rational decisions. GOD BLESS YOU ALL.
A continuation of distribution is still in play for bitcoin and the alt market. Maybe a few more days of bleeding but not much lower from here. Currently in SOW Phase B (Sign of Weakness in Phase B) v https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2015/09/14430698092761977734404.jpg Looking to see a quick turn around from this zone to the upside. Target : $130,000
#Channel... #Strong Support... #Trend Analysis #Technical Analysis
? XAUUSD Forecast & Analysis ? ? Time Frame: H4 ? Analysis: XAUUSD has broken its trendline, signaling a potential bearish move. Following the breakdown, a hammer candlestick has formed, indicating a temporary pause before further selling pressure. ? Sell Opportunity: A strong selling setup is developing at 2872, aligning with technical signals for a downside move. ? Technical Target: 2780 – This level serves as the projected target based on current price action and trend analysis. ? Key Levels to Watch: ✅ Resistance Zone: 2895 – If price approaches this level, sellers might step in. ✅ Support Zone: 2869 – If this level breaks, it could confirm further downside momentum.
Traders should be alert to the risk of an accelerated downside move in S&P 500 futures. After hitting record highs just two weeks ago, the price action has deteriorated rapidly with an initial break of minor uptrend support followed by sustained selling on rising volumes. The 50DMA has given way, as has the February 3 low, leaving the price teetering on the November 2023 uptrend. RSI (14) and MACD continue to trend lower, reinforcing a bearish bias. If the uptrend fails, bears may target a retest of 5808—a level that has been well-contested in recent months. That aligns with downtrend support extending from the December highs. Beyond that, the 200DMA looms as a key test for those eyeing a deeper pullback. Alternatively, a bounce from the uptrend would confirm it as support, creating a setup where longs could be established above with a stop beneath for protection. A move above 5935.5 would be an early bullish signal, with a break opening the door for a push towards 6000 and the 50DMA. Good luck! DS