wave 4 will maybe the bearmarket 2026? complex structure to take the time to go down for a year.
My guess for coming week: one nasty shakeout wick to 3.15 B support.. BTC getting frontrun 87k-level at $89.. then a weaker wick down and the up up up!
While it’s true that yesterday wasn’t completely void of economic events, a disappointing Chicago PMI can’t really shoulder the blame, or take the credit, for the wild stock market swings that took place. The Dow was down 700 points first thing, on no news. It then rallied 500 soon after the US open, before dropping 200 in the last hour of trading. In S&P terms, that was a loss of 100 points in three hours; a rally of 60 over the following three, topped off with a 30 point slump in the final hour of trading. As they say over the Atlantic: “Go figure.” A clue to what all that was about may be found in the US Treasury market where yields pulled back from recent highs. The 10-year Treasury note lost around 8 basis points yesterday, again on no news. So, like Sherlock Holmes and the ‘dog that didn’t bark’, it seems fair to suggest that investors were indulging in a dollop of year-end window dressing and rebalancing. Equities have had a strong twelve months, so these were sold off on profit-taking; bonds have had a dreadful fourth quarter, so they got bought, sending yields lower. This should help maintain the traditional 60:40 equity/bond portfolio to which most money managers aspire. That still leaves the 10-year yield over 4.50%, and a potential headwind for equities, although it’s remarkable how quickly investors can acclimatise to new environments. Could a 5.00% yield be the new danger threshold next year, as 4.50% now looks rather tatty and obsolete? Going forward, there are two related issues that investors are considering: Will growth continue to outperform value? Can the tech giants continue to lead the market, providing investors with further outsized gains (how does one try to calculate the future returns of generative AI and quantum computing)? Or will the more neglected value stocks take over? That’s all one issue. The second one is: Has the US peaked in terms of market outperformance? Is it now time to rebalance towards Europe and emerging markets? Is China once again an investment opportunity? That’s the other one. Linking all this is where the US dollar is likely to head from here. Yesterday, Jared Dillian, in his ‘Daily Dirtnap’, posted a chart of the Dollar Index superimposed on the same chart from 2016, around the time of Trump’s first presidential election victory. It shows the Dollar Index peaking around 106.00 a month after the result, then falling to 94.00 eight months later. Will history repeat? We know that President-elect Trump likes low interest rates, and tariffs. Could that be enough to trash the greenback? If so, then 2025 is likely to see higher commodity prices, a bond market rally and a bit of a headwind for US equities. Let’s look forward to finding out.
Prepare to BUY Spot HBARUSDT on the New D1 Cycle ? Get Ready for a Powerful Move with HBARUSDT! ? ? Market Overview: HBARUSDT is setting up for a strong new D1 cycle, offering an excellent opportunity for significant short-term gains. ? Trade Plan: ? Entry Point: Around $0.27 – Accumulate in this range to secure a solid position. ? Target: +70% to +100% – Aiming for substantial profits in this cycle. ⏳ Hold Time: Up to 2 weeks – Short-term strategy aligned with the D1 trend. ? Strategy Insights: D1 Momentum Strategy: Designed to capture significant upward moves with a controlled timeframe. Indicator Confirmation: Leverage tools like RainBow MG3 to validate entry and exit points. ? Next Steps: ? Reach out if you need personalized advice or more strategy details. ? Note: This is not financial advice. Always DYOR before trading. ? HBARUSDT is ready for a breakout – Position yourself now! ?
Fundamentally, sugar is showing signs of an upcoming rally. I’ll be going long from that demand zone. Follow me for more insights like this!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/PRVXC1US/ SP:SPX Here's the details of my trade Short on SPX.... Daily Chart: - Rising Wedge Pattern - Strong Break of Support Line (Fed Announcement Dec 18th) - Retest of the Support Line - Break back down from the Support Line and below 50 day moving average - Divergence on the RSI Fundamental Support: - Buffer Indicator 203.7% (Near all time highs) - Buffet portfolio at highest cash level since 2008 ($325B) - Shiller PE at 37.2, near 2022 peak of 38, Dot com bubble of 44 - FED announced fewer rate cuts in 2025 - Core PCE at 2.8% and rising since June 2024, above 2% FED target - Inverted Yield Curve is no longer inverted as of Sep 2024, the longest (793 days) and deepest inversion in history. All previous sustained inverted yield curves (8 Total since 1960) except 1 were followed by a recession within 6-12 months once the yield curve was no longer inverted. Economic Data: - Next significant economic data is ADP employment report Wed Jan 8th and Unemployment Rate Fri Jan 10th - A lower or higher employment figure than forecast could move the market and is a potential risk to the short position if employment figures are positive - However, inadvertently, higher employment figures will reduce the likelihood of FED rate cuts, offsetting some of the upside potential Target: - Previous ATH at 5674 ~-4.5% from current price - Stop: A break back above the support line - Historic market breakdowns (ie Jan 2022, Aug 2024) typically the initial move took 4-9 trading days with potential for up to 10% breakdown before recovery Risks: - Return to normal trading volumes post-holiday could result in continued buying - Trump inauguration could trigger a wave of bullishness - Big news in any of the Mag 7 stocks Overall: The chart patterns and fundamental data not only support a greater chance of a short term move to the downside, but greatly increase the chance of further decline. At this point, the market is in a potential transition and more data and chart movements need to play out before determining if a bear market is underway. My Position: 30 Call Options in SPXS (3x Bear SPX ETF) $6 Strike, Current Price $6.20 Expiration Friday Jan 10th. Average Price is .20 a contract Investment $600 Target $1.00-$1.50 (8-13:1 Profit Loss Ratio) Stop .10 Potential Loss $300 Potential Gain $2400-$3900
USD/JPY is trading around 156.88, showing bearish momentum. Key support lies at 156.66, with resistance near 156.83. Indicators like the RSI at 30.06 and the stochastic oscillator in oversold territory suggest a potential reversal, while the MACD points to ongoing bearish pressure. Short-term moving averages signal a sell, while medium to long-term trends remain mixed, reflecting market indecision.
The market structure for MIL:GOAT signals a possible shift. Yesterday’s low was swept, and price reclaimed a 4H OB cluster. This level could act as support for bullish continuation. Key Level The S/R reflects the 4H OB cluster. A solid defense of this zone supports an upside move. Any close below it weakens the bullish argument, indicating sellers may regain control. A successful hold above the line confirms that recent buyers are willing to defend positions. Entry Zone A sweep of yesterday’s lows highlights a liquidity grab. This move often clears out weak longs and sets the stage for a rebound. The 4h OB box represents an area where price might stabilize after that liquidity sweep. If strength emerges, a long entry from this region becomes attractive. Adding Higher if Momentum Persists If price consolidates above the red line, partial position adds can follow. This approach is contingent on persistent buying. Scattered pullbacks may occur, so verifying each bounce with supportive volume can confirm continued demand. Risk Management A stop loss placed under yesterday’s lows. Upside Focus Price targets often FVGs around local range highs. If buyers maintain control, minor resistance levels may offer partial profit opportunities. Further gains depend on broader market health. No single level guarantees an extended trend, so steady monitoring of daily or 4H closes helps refine targets. Observing Market Context A supportive environment across correlated assets strengthens the bullish narrative. If market sentiment deteriorates, caution is warranted. Sudden volatility can invalidate local setups.
Equiduct, Börse Berlin's electronic trading segment, registered significant growth with 16,495,030 trades, a 16% increase from the 14,165,256 trades conducted in 2023.
Silvester im TV ist jedes Jahr ein Trauerspiel - normalerweise. Kein Wunder, die meisten Leute sind bei Feiern. Doch gerade in diesem Jahr hauen die TV-Sender richtig einen raus und zeigen unter anderem zwei große Live-Shows. Der Beitrag Silvester im TV: Das musst du heute sehen erschien zuerst auf inside digital.