wait for break of highs just documenting. not financial advise. mean reversion bounce and relief retracement most pairs showing same signs
W0-W1: 1614-2079 (+465 points) W1-W2: 2079-1810 (-269 points) W2-W3: 1810-2790 (+980 points) Let's create scenarios following the rules: Scenario 1: Simple W4 Calculation Since W2 is complex, W4 will likely be simple (alternation principle) W3 movement = 980 points Maximum allowed for W4 = 50% of W3 = 490 points Therefore first target range: 2790 - 490 = 2300 level Scenario 2: Price Relationships Based on Rules W4 should be > 38% of W3 (minimum requirement) 38% of 980 = 372.4 points This gives us minimum target: 2790 - 372.4 = 2417.6 Price Target Range Based on Rules: Minimum: 2417.6 (38% retracement) Maximum: 2300 (50% retracement) Most probable: 2350-2400 (based on 43-45% retracement) Time Considerations: Since W2 was complex, W4 should be shorter in time W4 should take between 20% to 100% of W2's time duration Key Warning Signs: If W4 goes below 2079 (W1), it would invalidate W5 setup If W4 exceeds 50% of W3 (below 2300), probability of 5th wave failure increases Most Likely Scenario: A simple zigzag correction targeting 2350-2400 area, taking less time than W2, with oscillator crossing zero line at least twice during the movement. The ideal scenario would see W4 as a zigzag pattern staying above 2300, not penetrating W1 high of 2079, and completing within a shorter timeframe than W2.
Price retraced to supply zone, then break LTF strucutre. Entry model was presented with a ChoCh in M15. Liquidity was taken IMO. Aiming for a 1:3RR trade.
Der XAUUSD (Gold Spot gegenüber dem US-Dollar) zeigt derzeit eine Aufwärtsdynamik und wird heute in einem Bereich von etwa 2.668 bis 2.692 USD gehandelt. Aktuelle technische Indikatoren deuten auf eine bullische Stimmung hin, wobei eine positive tägliche Bewegung potenzielle weitere Gewinne widerspiegelt. Analyse: Unterstützungsniveaus: Rund 2.668 USD, dient als kurzfristiger Boden. Widerstandsniveaus: Nahe 2.692 USD; ein Ausbruch darüber könnte eine stärkere bullische Dynamik anzeigen. Indikatoren: Gleitende Durchschnitte und Momentumindikatoren deuten auf einen anhaltenden Aufwärtstrend hin, wenn die Schlüsselniveaus gehalten werden. Prognose: Kurzfristig wird erwartet, dass XAU/USD den Widerstand bei etwa 2.692 USD testet und möglicherweise in Richtung 2.710 USD steigt, wenn der Kaufdruck anhält. Wenn es jedoch nicht gelingt, sich über 2.668 USD zu halten, könnte dies zu einem Rückfall in Richtung 2.650 USD führen.
AUD/USD was the weakest forex major on Wednesday following weak growth figures for Q3. At 0.8% y/y, it was the slowest GDP figure in four years and beneath the 1.1% estimate, while the 0.3% q/q print also missed its forecast of 0.5%. Interest rates traders have now fully priced in a 25bp cut for April, which could mark the RBA’s first act of easing in over four years to take the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.1%. Two more 25bp cuts have also been priced in for August 2025 and February 2026, which assumes a cash rate of 3.6% - a level not seen since April 2023. The 2-year yield fell -13bp during its worst day in nearly five months.
This could be it. Would be nice to see a breakout of this c&h.
Watching ES and SPY here at new highs. I am bullish above the 8MA and want to see how markets respond in the Asia/London session. Buying dips down to 6050 is a good play along with buying a break/hold above 6100. Let's see if they run this into NFP or if we get a much needed pullback before the data.
Posted a chart before, this seems to be setting up for a EOY pop. Flagging, spinning stop doji, tight one at least, on the green side. $250 calls for Jan-Feb. Bitcoin CRYPTOCAP:BTC vs. Gold Trust $GLD. Money is on both. Wall street Loser
Looking at the chart you’ve provided, I see several indicators that we can analyze for potential trading decisions. Here’s a breakdown: Price Action: Bitcoin seems to be consolidating near resistance levels close to $98,000, with the psychological level of $100,000 nearby. Consolidation near a strong resistance can lead to either a breakout (long opportunity) or a rejection (short opportunity). Indicators: RSI: The RSI is hovering in a mid-range (50.76 on this chart). It isn’t showing overbought or oversold conditions, indicating indecision in the market. However, a break above 70 or below 30 would signal stronger momentum. MACD: The MACD lines look close to crossing, which could hint at a change in momentum. If the lines cross bullishly, it could suggest a long; if bearish, a short. Stochastic RSI: The stochastic RSI is in an overbought condition (~97.32). This may indicate that a pullback could be imminent unless the trend is very strong. Moving Averages: The EMA ribbons (20/50/100/200) are trending upwards, which is bullish. Price is currently above these EMAs, signaling the market is in an uptrend. Volume: There’s a decrease in volume during the consolidation phase. A breakout, whether upward or downward, could occur once volume increases. Pattern: The consolidation might indicate a flag or triangle pattern. A breakout from this pattern will decide the direction. Summary: For a Long Position: Wait for a breakout above $98,800–$100,000 with increased volume and momentum on the MACD and RSI. For a Short Position: Look for a rejection from $98,000–$100,000 with confirmation on the Stochastic RSI (turning down) and MACD crossing bearishly. Monitor closely for confirmation before entering a trade.
If you were to follow cycles... No, I wasn’t in this trade. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ihZ1I4xG/ ? Key Observations: Cycle indicators recently showed a **bottom** on both BTC and USDT pairs, signaling a potential entry point. But remember: when picking a coin to invest in, always analyze its **historical performance against Bitcoin (BTC)** to gauge its strength in future cycles. ? Example: OM/BTC How do we spot a **bullish trend**? - By analyzing **1-week cycles**: - Identify the **bottom-to-top range** of a cycle. - Confirm a bullish trend when the **next cycle bottom** is higher than the previous one. https://www.tradingview.com/x/n1wZtcch/ ? Broader Insights: Since the duration of a bullish trend is unpredictable, we also look at: - **2-Week Cycles**: Reveal sustained momentum. - **1-Month Cycles**: Provide a macro perspective for long-term potential. https://www.tradingview.com/x/oVsPCStN/ ? *Cycle analysis isn’t foolproof, but it sharpens your strategy and aligns your trades with market rhythms.* #XRP #CryptoCycles #TradingStrategy #BTC