Based on trend and momentum lift. XRP volume increasing and on 15 min time frame we can see the break out of the trend line.
CTXC USDT seems to be an interesting view. We will follow the data to see if it's able to show new targets.
This is a massive cup And handle. This means you can’t expect it to play out quickly. But as you can see from the breakout it does move have momentum. So it’s active to about 500$. That’s a huge move. 40%! Capturing even a piece of this would be great for anyone! But keep in mind. Might be a better leap or even short term spread?
I'm monitoring AUD/USD closely as the price approaches a black trendline. If the trendline is broken, it could signal a bearish move. My target for this setup is the green support level, which has historically acted as a strong zone of buyer activity. This area could present opportunities for either reducing short positions or watching for a potential bounce. Key points: Wait for confirmation of a trendline breakout. Observe volume and candlestick patterns to validate the move. Be cautious around the green support level for possible reversals. Patience is essential for the best entry!
In this post I want to share with you an idea I've shared with my friends irl who have market exposure. Heading into the 2022 high I strongly encouraged my friends to sell stocks. We were heading into a multi decade resistance level and I'd put the odds somewhere around 80% there'd be a notable reaction to this level. Could be a pullback, could be a crash. If it's a pullback it's easy to get back in, not so easy to get out in a crash. So, no brainer. Late 2022 I started to tell them it was worth getting back in as long as they used good stop loss rules and then when we got to a 76% retracement of the 2022 drop I started to explain the concept I'll discuss in this post to them. First let's lay the groundwork for this. We can focus on the things we know. It's a known that indices have uptrended for a long time. And it's a known of trend development that trends do not get slower. A trend is always increasing in velocity. It goes up faster and faster and then when it comes down it comes down faster than it went up. This is always what happens. Trends speed up. Regardless of the direction. Now, in 2022 we hit a multiple decade resistance. This was evidenced by a local market top. Confirming the market also seems to care about this level. Whatever happens, this is likely to be a major pivot point in the trend. Either we'll top out here or well head into a stage of hyper overperformance. In this overperformance, we will likely see indices up 100% from the current highs. 200 - 300% is on the table, 100% is a number that would have high odds of hitting, based on historical breaks like this. And if the resistance is actionable, this could all come crashing down in a horrific way. If you accept these premises that the market is due to either crash up or crash down, then it makes no sense at all to have common stock exposure (Or whatever you prefer). If the long bet is wrong, you can take crippling losses and if the long bet is right you can make a lot more money betting on the hyper aggressive breakout. Around 4500 I started to tell my friends this. I told them if I was them I'd drop my stocks. Bank the profits on those and then I'd take 10 - 20% of what I'd made in profits and use these to buy a portfolio of aggressive OTM calls. My thinking here is if the market yanks, no big deal. SPX could drop 90% and my friends would take rather nominal losses. Giving back a fraction of what they made in the rally rather than seeing all their positions go from profits top negative. On the other side of the coin, if the breakout comes - they'd make a lot more on the calls than they'd make with common. Depending on aggression level, they'd make a crazy amount more. A rally similar to the Nasdaq breakout would translate as something like this on SPX. https://www.tradingview.com/x/uQGQ3kPK/ At this moment in time you can buy Jan 2027 calls for under $150. In the event this move happened, these would be worth min over $65,000. A bit under $75,000 if the move is completed faster and this is not even accounting for the potential of an IV boost if the market goes into hyper performance. $2,000 into a series of bets on that happening would return over a million in the event that it did actually happen. This is not without risk. The plan I proposed to my friends has one main risk and that is the market slowly continues to uptrend. Making good gains but not hitting the bubble conditions to make it realistic these deep OTMs actually trade (For context, the statistical probability of profit on these right now is 0.2% - something would have to change). In that scenario, they'd take some small losses on the call portfolio and they'd have missed out on whatever the gain of just owning the underlying asset would be. That's the potential cost of the bet. On the upside of that, my friends who had 10s or even 100s of thousands exposure to the bear move can covert this to a few grand risk and still make mega bank if the bubble thesis comes into play. If SPX hits the 100% move inside of 2 years, these calls pay somewhere around $25,000 per $130 risked. In the event this heads into a blow off event they start to get up to close to $100,000 on those positions. This is hyper high RR way to bet on a developing bubble. Ensure you do not have excessive losses in a crash and the price of this is basically you convert your bet into a bet that the market will not range. If the market ranges for a year or two, this idea suffers. I think this is the wise thing to do at this point if speculating in stocks. We're into a binary level in my opinion. A polarising decision will come in this area. The smart thing to do is to put a hard cap on risk exposure so all bearish tail events do not hurt you and have the potential to make 1,000s of % of profit in the event of a bullish tail event. I think the probability of a tail event in the coming years is high now. Rarely is the probability of a tail event high, but rarely do we test multiple decades of resistance in indices. There is so much that can be made or lost in a tail event, that it makes a lot of sense to think about how you can structure bets to survive or thrive in the different outcomes. If this proves to not be the end stages of a bubble, then I think it's only reasonable to assume we're actually somewhere in the middle of a bubble. Which means something exceptional is likely to come in the following years - whatever way this inflection point resolves itself. In my opinion, if you want to bet on continued up moves in indices, you might as well bet on a full fledged bubble. The odds of indices breaking resistance and slowly limping higher I consider super low. I think we reverse or we fly. I have my bets structured to benefit from either one.
The crypto market is maturing to the point of clear winners and losers within the application space. The chain level has proven in 2024 not to be decided with the consistent growth of SOL Within the different chains though we have still seen winners seperately themselves from the losers. The winning applications? Usually theyve been in three fields. Validating. Swapping. Lending. Now there are emerging winners appearing in the fields of RWA. Yield. Whatever Ethena is. These fields are distancing themselves from the losers. The zombie fields. The seed investment fields. The metaverses. The gaming. The NFTs. The losing fields might have volatile token performance and they could definitely see strength start in 2025.. but those applications were big losers in 2024. Surprise, surprise... their token performance wasnt great. It may have something to do with the fact no one uses the application. 2025 I believe we will see those that were leading applications and leading token performers in 2024 continue to be the leaders of 2025. EDIT - I forgot to mention in the video my favourite growth chain of SUI. SUI has been a relative leader both technically and fundamentally.
This is a perfect consolidation pattern with the resistance breakout. The rise can be completed by 200% to 300%
Every single day this past week was a shooting star. And going down. Which made the week chart look like a spinning top. If you look at all the indicators it’s also very bearish as well. Now I’m just sitting here like biggie. Saying “gimme the loot!” Also there is a trend line you can place on the 1 day chart and its following that very well. Looking for it to fill the gap down below. Or at least hit the moving averages. I also trade options so this is a good puts play. Not Financial Advice.
TGT has a massive gap to fill to the upside after taking a fall from earnings. This could be a 3 rising valleys (bullish) pattern on the Daily chart. A hold of 132 can move up to 137, 140, 145, 148, 150 over the next month+. If TGT is weak, and loses 130, this invalidates the above idea for an upside move. A break of the trend line below can send TGT to 125.
Just now opened an Ethereum long. I anticipate that by day end today on weekly close we'll be back around $4000 price point looking to push higher. Weekly and daily trend is still bullish and 4hr and 1hr trend is at a key level where I calculate it will push from to shift back bullish aligning with higher timeframes.