IHSG is continuing its strong bearish movement. Yet, indication for reversal is far beyond. Considering this condition, "do nothing" is the best strategy until the Whale Investor accumulate.
- Key Insights: JPMorgan Chase & Co's market activity underscores a period of controlled growth influenced by strategic financial instruments like the JP Morgan collar. This mechanism suggests a reduction in price volatility, offering investors an anchor amidst fluctuating markets. The magnetic effect of the collar helps moderate market rallies, securing a stable trajectory for JPM's share movement. - Price Targets: With a view toward a long position, here are the recommended targets and stop levels for the next week: - T1: $248.08 (2.67% above current) - T2: $265.79 (10% above current) - S1: $229.16 (5.16% below current) - S2: $217.47 (10% below current) - Recent Performance: JPM has demonstrated resilience through its strategic market engagements, especially with the installation of the collar at the 5565 strike price. This has created a gravitational effect, mitigating severe market moves and ensuring relatively stable growth patterns in the midst of broader market flux. - Expert Analysis: Market sentiment, echoed by experts, appreciates JPM's ability to maintain equilibrium in market excitement. The structured financial mechanisms that JPM employs act as a cautious yet optimistic roadmap for investors seeking stable appreciation. With the exertion of significant influence over financial indices, JPM's strategies are steering economic monitoring towards more predictable growth forecasts. - News Impact: While JPM maneuvers through the market, external factors like the downgrading of Tesla's price targets illustrate broader market adjustments to resolve risk perceptions and brand sentiments, which can subtly reflect on JPM's positioning. Such shifts in market expectations among high-stake companies further frame JPM's calculated approach to fostering enduring investor confidence.
The chart looks good — we broke through the 2060 resistance and made strong closes above it. Now I'm planning to go long again with a retest. If this pullback doesn't happen, then I might consider buying if we break above $2150.
Hola mamacitas, If the USDT is bearish then alts will fly. In my opinion the USDT looks super bearis (finaly). It looks like its forming a bearish ascending triangle. If it breaks the 3.80 level we will se an explosive move in crypto. It looks al so good! When it breaks this support the wait for the price to reach the diagonal trendline down there. From there we should exit all our positions in crypto and expect the biggest bearmarket ever. Trade save and let me know what you think!
- Key Insights: The Euro is facing continued pressure against major currencies, particularly the US Dollar. Traders should consider short positions as the bearish trend shows persistence. Support levels may act as potential reversal points, but caution is advised given the geopolitical and economic dynamics in play. - Price Targets: With a short strategy in mind, consider setting targets and stops as follows: - Target 1 (T1): 1.0780 - Target 2 (T2): 1.0763 - Stop Level 1 (S1): 1.0855 - Stop Level 2 (S2): 1.0890 - Recent Performance: The Euro has recently demonstrated a bearish pattern, failing to maintain previous bullish momentum. Key support level tests are likely on the horizon, following a significant reversal from the 1.09281 resistance mark. This performance reflects an underwhelming trajectory against other currencies as well. - Expert Analysis: Analysts continue to advise caution with Euro longs, noting that the bearish momentum could sustain unless significant economic or geopolitical shifts occur. The consensus is to observe the EUR/USD pair closely, with any potential corrections providing speculative trading opportunities. - News Impact: European geopolitical dynamics, particularly defense spending and strategic engagements with China, are impacting market sentiment. These developments are reshaping supply chains and creating new economic conditions that could affect the Euro. Meanwhile, broader fiscal strategies are watched for potential effects on currency valuations.
- Key Insights: The crude oil market is experiencing mixed signals, with recent positive momentum but an overarching bearish sentiment. Despite the slight uptick, the market remains sensitive to economic and geopolitical factors, suggesting cautious trading strategies. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels closely to inform trading decisions. - Price Targets: Next week, traders might consider these targets: - T1: $70.50, T2: $72.00 - S1: $66.50, S2: $65.00 This positioning aligns with the anticipation of potential upward movement while guarding against lower breaks. - Recent Performance: Crude oil has recently closed above key moving averages, hinting at possible short-term gains. However, the broader market is bearish, influenced by decreasing oil and gasoline prices, which may reduce overall economic costs. The market's volatility is driven by broader economic conditions and geopolitical influences. - Expert Analysis: Opinions in the oil market are divided, with some experts foreseeing bearish trends due to supply constraints and production capacity issues. Others remain bullish in the long term, expecting economic conditions like stagflation and inflation to drive demand and prices higher. The imminent strengthening of the US dollar and its impact on linked indices remains an area of attention. - News Impact: Several notable events are influencing crude oil. Concerns about sustaining production levels amidst declining rates and constrained spare capacity highlight the critical need for investment in new projects. Geopolitical tensions involving key global players are impacting supply chains and pricing, potentially escalating inflationary pressures. Within the sector, shifting production strategies and shareholder expectations may redefine performance prospects in the near term. Overall, while the short-term outlook might see some gains, traders should remain cautious and informed, given the complex interplay of economic and geopolitical factors affecting crude oil.
-Key Insights: CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. is currently seen within a strategic trading range between $300 and $400. Recent market activity places it mid-range with momentum to potentially capitalize on buy opportunities as it approaches the lower support boundary. The security's market attention alongside other sector leaders like Tesla adds to an optimistic outlook in the cybersecurity field. -Price Targets: Next week, consider a long position with target 1 (T1) at $380 and target 2 (T2) at $395. Manage risk with stop level 1 (S1) at $340 and stop level 2 (S2) at $320, ensuring disciplined trading execution. -Recent Performance: CrowdStrike closed recently at $362.24, indicating it is within a consolidation phase. This midpoint suggests monitoring for either a breakout above the resistance or a pullback to support, offering possible entry or exit points. -Expert Analysis: Analysts highlight CrowdStrike as a stock aligned with market sentiment driven by cybersecurity needs. Its association with notable stocks to watch, such as Tesla, reinforces its positioning as integral within strategic sector portfolios. -News Impact: While unspecified, any fluctuation observed may relate to overarching market trends or sector-specific developments impacting investor sentiment. It underscores the necessity of staying informed on both macroeconomic signals and technological advancements affecting cybersecurity demand.
- Key Insights: Apple shows robust potential in the tech sector, poised for a rally despite internal challenges. Investors should monitor technical levels as reclaiming key moving averages will indicate stronger bullish trends. The stock's resilience amid economic challenges positions Apple favorably. - Price Targets: - Next Week Targets: Target 1 (T1) at $219, Target 2 (T2) at $228 - Stop Levels: Stop Level 1 (S1) at $211, Stop Level 2 (S2) at $206 - Recent Performance: AAPL has exhibited relative strength, gaining 2.24% recently amid sector pressures. Remaining a key player in driving tech sector momentum indicates potential upward movement. - Expert Analysis: Market experts maintain optimism, suggesting careful observation of Apple's ability to navigate innovation hurdles will be key to maintaining upward trends. Positive momentum is anticipated with substantial chances of leading a rally. - News Impact: Apple faces internal challenges in AI development but retains investor confidence. A notable increase suggests positive market sentiment. Speculation around organizational changes could influence future performance, indicating strategic adjustments.
- Key Insights: The 10-Year Treasury yield is at a critical juncture amid ongoing market uncertainty. With central banks selling US Treasuries, yields are volatile. Analysts recommend maintaining a neutral stance, suggesting that holding onto bonds and cash is prudent in the face of unpredictable market corrections and potential equity retracement. - Price Targets: Next week targets for 10-Year Treasury yield are set cautiously due to market conditions. T1 is projected at 4.30, and T2 at 4.35, reflecting resistance levels. Stop levels are placed conservatively at S1 at 4.20 and S2 at 4.15, expecting potential pullbacks. - Recent Performance: The 10-Year has experienced price fluctuations due to central banks selling off treasuries, impacting yields. Despite initial increases, resistance has been detected, aligning with historical retracement levels, and signaling a potential shift towards lower yields. - Expert Analysis: Analysts from Morgan Stanley, Citi, and Goldman Sachs emphasize a neutral approach, urging investors to focus on cash and bonds. This advice stems from concerns over inflated equity valuations and the ramifications of rising interest rates that might dampen stock market performance. - News Impact: Recent talks of reciprocal tariffs by the US administration could lead to shifts in trade patterns, affecting the US dollar and treasury yields. The Federal Reserve's plan to adjust security redemption caps underscores liquidity concerns. Against this backdrop, investing in bonds, gold, and cash is recommended, resonating with the market's cautious sentiment.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/XeASB9a6-Elliot-wave-says-no/ INDEX:BTCUSD Hypothesis: - Rejection from confluence of 20 week MA, 50 day MA and 0.786 Fib level (and Elliot prediction pattern) - Test $74k support line and 0.618 weekly Fib level, possibly wick $69k Fundamentals Key Points Research suggests inflation is moderate, with annual CPI at 2.46% and PCE at 2.06% for March 2025, though tariffs may push prices higher. It seems likely that employment growth is slowing, with 151,000 jobs added in February 2025 and unemployment at 4.1%, showing some weakness. The evidence leans toward economic contraction, with Q1 2025 GDP growth estimated at -1.8%, following 2.3% in Q4 2024. Consumer strength appears mixed, with a 4.6% personal savings rate in January 2025 and high credit card rates at 24.20%. Monetary policy is steady, with the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, and potential future rate cuts are anticipated. Fiscal policy faces challenges, with debt projected to reach 200% of GDP by 2047 if unchanged, amid possible tax cuts. Banking risks include regulatory and credit issues, especially in commercial real estate for smaller banks. Energy demand is rising, with renewables like solar growing fast, while natural gas remains key. Real estate is tough, with high prices and rates, but moderation in price increases is expected. Commodities outlook is bearish, with declining prices, except for gold, which may see record highs. Inflation: Current Projections and Tariff Impacts Inflation projections, as per the Cleveland FED's inflation nowcasting (Cleveland FED Inflation Nowcasting), indicate that for March 2025, the annual CPI is estimated at 2.46%, with core CPI at 2.99%, and PCE at 2.06%, with core PCE at 2.47%. Quarterly figures for 2025 Q1 show CPI at 3.85% and PCE at 2.80%. These nowcasts are based on daily oil prices, weekly gasoline prices, and monthly CPI/PCE readings, aiming to estimate current inflation before official data releases. Recent US tariff policies, implemented in early March 2025, add complexity. As of March 7, 2025, additional tariffs include 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada not satisfying USMCA rules of origin, 10% on Canadian energy products outside USMCA, and 20% on Chinese imports, up from 10% (CBP Tariff Statement). Economic analyses suggest these tariffs could increase inflation, with estimates ranging from a one-time 0.6% price increase to a 0.4% rise in PCE inflation, depending on implementation and retaliation (Impact of Tariffs on Inflation). The nowcasts likely account for these factors, but ongoing trade tensions, including retaliatory tariffs from Canada effective March 13, 2025, on $29.8 billion in US products, could further influence prices (Canada Tariff List). Employment: Signs of Softening The latest employment data, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Summary for February 2025, released on March 7, 2025, shows nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000, below the 168,000 average over the prior twelve months (BLS Employment Situation). The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4% in January, with the labor force participation rate falling 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%, its lowest since January 2023. A broader measure of unemployment, including discouraged workers, jumped to 8%, the highest since October 2021, indicating potential cracks in the labor market amid policy uncertainty and government layoffs. Economic Growth: Contraction Concerns Economic growth estimates, as per the Atlanta FED's GDPNow model, indicate a significant slowdown, with Q1 2025 growth nowcast at -1.8% as of March 18, 2025, up from -2.1% on March 17, but still negative (Atlanta FED GDPNow). This follows a 2.3% growth in Q4 2024, as per the BEA's second estimate, driven by consumer and government spending but offset by investment declines (BEA GDP Q4 2024). The negative Q1 nowcast, if realized, could signal a recession, given the historical threshold of two consecutive quarters of negative growth, though Q4 2024 was positive. Consumer Strength: Savings and Debt Pressures Consumer strength is mixed, with the personal savings rate at 4.6% in January 2025, up from 3.5% in December 2024, reflecting caution (BEA Personal Saving Rate). This rate, calculated as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, suggests households are saving more amid economic uncertainty. However, credit card interest rates are high, with the average APR at 24.20% for March 2025, down slightly from recent months but still burdensome, especially for those with weaker credit, where rates can reach 27.71% (Average Credit Card Rate). Monetary Policy: Steady Rates with Future Cuts Anticipated The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as outlined in the March 19, 2025, FOMC statement, maintains the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, unchanged from January and following cuts in late 2024 (Federal Reserve FOMC Statement). The FOMC projects a 50 basis point reduction in 2025 and another 50 in 2026, reflecting a cautious approach amid solid labor conditions and elevated inflation, with PCE inflation expected at 2.7% by year-end, influenced by tariffs. The Fed's stance balances supporting growth while monitoring inflation risks. Fiscal Policy: Unsustainable Debt Trajectory Fiscal policy faces significant challenges, with the GAO's February 2025 report warning of an unsustainable path, projecting federal debt held by the public to reach 200% of GDP by 2047 if current revenue and spending policies persist (GAO Fiscal Health). The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure shows fiscal policy added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in Q4 2024, but expects a negative impact in Q1 2025, driven by weak federal and state purchases (Hutchins Center FIM). President Trump's proposed tax cuts, including extending TCJA provisions and new breaks, could increase deficits, adding pressure on interest rates and long-term fiscal sustainability (US Fiscal Policy 2025). Banking and Credit Risks: Sectoral Vulnerabilities The US banking sector faces multiple risks in 2025, particularly for midsize and regional banks with concentrated exposures to commercial real estate (CRE), especially office space. Deloitte Insights notes banks with assets between $10 billion to $100 billion have CRE loans at 199% of risk-based capital as of Q2 2024, compared to 54% for banks over $250 billion, highlighting potential credit risks (Banking Outlook 2025). Regulatory scrutiny, cybersecurity threats, and operational risks, as per Ncontracts, add pressure, with 89% of community bankers rating regulation as critical (Emerging Risks in Banking). Larger banks, however, have buffers to manage loan losses, and the sector is seen as resilient by some, with opportunities in fixed-income investments. Energy: Rising Demand and Renewable Growth The energy sector is experiencing robust demand, with utility-scale power generation reaching 3,287 billion kWh by September 2024, up 3% year-over-year, driven by federal policies promoting domestic content (Power and Utilities Outlook). Renewable energy, particularly solar, grew by 30% in 2024, expected to reach 34% growth by year-end, while natural gas, generating 43% of electricity, saw a 4.1% increase but is projected to decline to 40% in 2025 due to high fuel prices. The Trump administration's policies add uncertainty, but demand from data centers and electrification continues to grow (US Power Sector Outlook). Real Estate: High Prices and Affordability Challenges The real estate market remains challenging, with home prices and mortgage rates high, around 7%, prolonging buyer struggles (Housing Market Predictions). The surge in prices since 2020 has lost steam, with some markets seeing declines due to increased inventory and softer demand. Experts project moderation in 2025, with slower increases in prices and rents, but affordability gaps persist, especially with potential rate cuts expected to boost buying power (5-Year Housing Predictions). Commodities: Bearish Outlook with Gold Exception The commodities outlook for 2025 is generally bearish, with the World Bank projecting a 5% decline in commodity prices, reaching a five-year low, driven by an oil glut limiting price effects even with Middle East conflicts (Commodity Markets Outlook). Energy prices are expected to drop, with oil prices declining, though natural gas may rise. Metal prices are set to edge lower, while agricultural prices should ease. However, gold is expected to hit record highs, driven by central bank easing and safe-haven demand amid trade tensions (Commodities Outlook 2025). https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/XeASB9a6-Elliot-wave-says-no/ Additional Considerations Other important factors include geopolitical risks, such as trade wars and conflicts, impacting energy and commodities, and technological shifts like AI driving energy demand. The interplay of these elements, alongside domestic policy shifts, underscores the complexity of the economic outlook, with significant implications for growth, inflation, and financial stability.