Bitcoin is showing some further weakness after seeing the rejection from the 200 EMA. Now that we are entering the weekend market, it will be hard to say where or how we will be moving, but we will be keeping an eye on the upcoming formation of CME, which will give us a further indication of movement. Overall, we still keep the same game plan we had; we need to see another re-test of lower zones before having some proper bullish market and trend switch. Swallow Team
I believe we are still at least a month from breaking out of this big ole wedge we are stuck in. The news and rumors just keep bumping us around inside of it for now. So for now I'm following the charts, not the news, and trying to be patient.
This EUR/GBP chart on the 1-hour timeframe showcases a well-defined symmetrical triangle formation, a widely recognized pattern in technical analysis that signals potential breakout opportunities. The price action has respected the converging trendlines, indicating consolidation before a decisive move. Recently, the market has broken below the support zone, confirming a bearish breakdown and providing a strong signal for potential downside movement. This analysis will cover pattern formation, key technical levels, trading strategy, risk management, and future market outlook to provide a comprehensive professional breakdown of this setup. 1. Chart Pattern Analysis – Symmetrical Triangle Formation A symmetrical triangle consists of two converging trendlines that squeeze price action into a narrowing range, reflecting market indecision. This pattern is considered a continuation pattern, meaning that the price is likely to continue in the direction of the prevailing trend after the breakout. Pattern Characteristics in This Chart: ✅ Lower Highs: Price fails to break previous peaks, indicating weakening bullish momentum. ✅ Higher Lows: Buyers step in at higher points, preventing aggressive declines. ✅ Volume Decrease: Typical of consolidation within a symmetrical triangle. ✅ Breakout Confirmation: A strong bearish candle broke below the support level, signaling further downside potential. 2. Key Technical Levels & Zones ? Resistance Level + All-Time High (ATH) – 0.8421 This level represents the highest point in the pattern, where price faced repeated rejections. It aligns with a historical resistance zone, indicating a strong supply area. A breakout above this level would shift the market to a bullish bias. ? Support Level – 0.8379 (Now Acting as Resistance) Previously a key demand zone where buyers defended the price. Price has now broken below this level, confirming it as new resistance in a bearish scenario. A successful retest followed by rejection increases downside confirmation. ? Stop-Loss Placement – 0.8421 Located above the upper trendline and recent highs to avoid false breakouts. If price regains this level, the bearish scenario will be invalidated. ? Target Zone – 0.82926 (Major Support Area) This is the next strong support level, acting as a potential take-profit zone for short positions. It aligns with a previous price reaction area, making it a logical target for sellers. 3. Trading Setup & Strategy – Bearish Trade Plan The breakdown from the symmetrical triangle structure presents an opportunity to short the pair with a defined risk-to-reward setup. ? Entry Strategy: Enter short positions after price breaks and retests the 0.8379 support level as resistance. Confirmation should come from bearish candlestick patterns like engulfing candles or pin bars. ? Stop Loss: Placed above 0.8421, above the last swing high, to protect against potential false breakouts. ? Take Profit (TP) Target: First TP: 0.8325 (Intermediate support) Final TP: 0.82926 (Major support and key structure level) Alternative Scenario – Bullish Reversal Possibility If price reclaims 0.8379 and closes above it consistently, the bearish breakdown might be a false move. A move above 0.8421 would invalidate the bearish setup, leading to potential bullish momentum. 4. Risk Management & Trade Confirmation ✅ Volume Analysis A significant increase in volume on the breakdown strengthens the bearish outlook. Low volume retests may indicate a weak reversal attempt, favoring continuation downward. ✅ Bearish Price Action Confirmation Lower highs and consistent lower lows reinforce a bearish sentiment. Rejections from the broken support (now resistance) validate the trade setup. ✅ Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) The Stop-Loss (SL) is tight, and the profit target is significantly larger, making this a high RRR trade. Ideally, a RRR of at least 2:1 or 3:1 should be maintained for proper risk control. 5. Market Sentiment & Future Outlook Bearish Bias Strengths: Trendline break indicates strong downside pressure. Failed attempts to break resistance suggest weakening bulls. Global macroeconomic factors and fundamental catalysts may favor GBP strength over EUR in the near term. Reversal Risks: A strong bullish breakout above 0.8421 would shift momentum to the upside. Fundamental news events (e.g., ECB or BoE statements) can impact market direction unexpectedly. 6. Summary & Conclusion ? The EUR/GBP 1-hour chart has broken below a symmetrical triangle pattern, confirming a bearish breakout. ? Key levels to watch: Resistance at 0.8421, support at 0.82926. ? Trading strategy favors short positions, with a target at 0.82926 and a stop loss at 0.8421. ? Confirmation comes from trendline breaks, volume analysis, and lower highs/lows structure. ? Final Verdict: The setup is bearish unless price reclaims 0.8379 and invalidates the structure. Traders should monitor price action, volume, and news events for further confirmations. ? Potential Profit Target: 80-90 Pips ? ⚠️ Risk Management is Crucial – Always Use Stop Loss & Proper Position Sizing
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