? How to Build a Macroeconomic Model in Excel (Step-by-Step Guide)** A **macroeconomic model** helps track key economic indicators like **GDP, Inflation, Unemployment, Interest Rates**, and more. By analyzing historical data, we can detect patterns and **forecast economic trends**. ✅ **Skill Level:** Beginner-Friendly ✅ **Tools Needed:** Excel & Internet Access ✅ **Goal:** Build a **dynamic macroeconomic dashboard** that updates automatically and can **forecast trends**. We will be using https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ to build the model. --- ? Step 1: Understanding a Macroeconomic Model** A macroeconomic model is a **data-driven framework** used to analyze and forecast economic activity. It helps answer questions like: - **Is the economy growing or shrinking?** - **How does inflation affect interest rates?** - **What are unemployment trends telling us about the job market?** ? Key Economic Indicators to Track** Here are some **essential indicators** for a macroeconomic model: | Indicator | Description | |-----------------|-------------| | **GDP (Gross Domestic Product)** | Measures total economic output. | | **CPI (Consumer Price Index)** | Tracks inflation by measuring price changes. | | **Unemployment Rate** | % of unemployed workers looking for jobs. | | **Interest Rates (Fed Funds Rate)** | Cost of borrowing money (set by central banks). | | **Stock Market Index (S&P 500, Dow Jones, etc.)** | Measures investor confidence. | | **Housing Market Data (Home Sales, Prices, Mortgage Rates)** | Signals economic growth or decline. | These indicators are **publicly available** from government and financial sources like **FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)**. --- Step 2: Download Macroeconomic Data from FRED** The **Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)** website provides free access to US and global economic data. ? Steps to Download Data** 1️⃣ **Go to FRED’s Website** - Open (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/) 2️⃣ **Search for Key Indicators** - Type "GDP" → Click **Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1)** - Type "CPI" → Click **Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL)** - Type "Unemployment" → Click **Unemployment Rate (UNRATE)** - Type "Fed Funds Rate" → Click **Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS)** 3️⃣ **Download Data as CSV** - Click the **"Download"** button - Select **"CSV"** format - Save each file in a folder (e.g., `Macroeconomic Data`). --- ? Step 3: Import Data into Excel** Now, let's **import the data into Excel** and clean it. ### **? Steps to Import Data** 1️⃣ **Open Excel** and create a new workbook. 2️⃣ **Go to "Data" → Click "From Text/CSV"** 3️⃣ **Select the CSV files one by one** → Click **"Load"** 4️⃣ **Ensure Data is Structured Properly** - The first column should be **Date**. - The second column should contain the **economic values**. - **Rename each sheet** based on the indicator (e.g., **GDP, CPI, Unemployment**). --- ? Step 4: Organizing & Formatting Data in Excel** To ensure smooth analysis, format the data properly. ? Steps to Clean and Format Data** 1️⃣ **Create a "Master Data" Sheet** - In **Sheet1**, create a table with: - **Column A:** Date - **Column B:** GDP - **Column C:** CPI - **Column D:** Unemployment - **Column E:** Fed Funds Rate 2️⃣ **Use VLOOKUP to Align Data by Date** - In `Column B`, use: ```excel =VLOOKUP(A2, GDP!A:B, 2, FALSE) ``` - Do the same for CPI, Unemployment, and Interest Rates. 3️⃣ **Convert Data into a Table for Easy Analysis** - Select the data → Press `Ctrl + T` → Click "OK" --- ? Step 5: Calculate Key Economic Indicators in Excel** Now, let's **generate insights** using formulas. ? Steps to Calculate Growth Rates** 1️⃣ **GDP Growth Rate (% Change per Quarter)** ```excel =(B2 - B1) / B1 * 100 ``` - Drag down the formula to apply for all rows. 2️⃣ **Inflation Rate (CPI % Change)** ```excel =(C2 - C1) / C1 * 100 ``` 3️⃣ **Unemployment Rate 3-Month Moving Average** ```excel =AVERAGE(D2:D4) ``` --- ? Step 6: Create Dynamic Charts in Excel** Now that we have the **processed data**, let's visualize it. **? Steps to Create Charts** 1️⃣ **Insert a Line Chart for GDP Growth** - Select **Date & GDP Growth %** - Click **Insert → Line Chart** - Label it **"GDP Growth Over Time"** 2️⃣ **Create an Inflation vs. Interest Rate Chart** - Select **CPI Inflation % and Fed Funds Rate** - Click **Insert → Combo Chart** - Set CPI as **Line Chart** and Interest Rate as **Bar Chart** - Title: **"Inflation vs. Interest Rates"** 3️⃣ **Unemployment & Stock Market Chart** - Select **Date, Unemployment Rate & S&P 500** - Insert **Dual Axis Line Chart** --- ? Step 7: Build a Forecasting Model** **? Steps to Forecast Economic Trends** 1️⃣ **Use Excel’s FORECAST Function** - Forecast **next 12 months of GDP growth**: ```excel =FORECAST.LINEAR(TODAY(), B2:B100, A2:A100) ``` - Drag down to fill predictions. 2️⃣ **Use TREND Function for Inflation Forecast** ```excel =TREND(C2:C100, A2:A100, TODAY()+30) ``` 3️⃣ **Use Moving Averages for Unemployment Trends** ```excel =AVERAGE(D100:D110) ``` - Adjust range to fit recent values. --- **? Step 8: Automate Data Updates in Excel** To **automate updates**, we can use **Power Query**. **? Steps to Automate Data Retrieval** 1️⃣ **Go to "Data" → Click "Get Data" → "From Web"** 2️⃣ **Enter the URL from FRED API for GDP, CPI, etc.** 3️⃣ **Click "Load" to Import Data Automatically** 4️⃣ **Set "Refresh Every 24 Hours"** to auto-update new economic data. ? Now, your **Macroeconomic Dashboard updates automatically!** ? --- **? Step 9: Interpret & Use Your Model** Now that you have a **working macroeconomic model**, you can: ✅ **Monitor Economic Health** (Growth, Inflation, Unemployment). ✅ **Predict Future Trends** (Using Excel Forecasting). ✅ **Adjust Investment & Trading Decisions** based on economic cycles. --- ? Final Thoughts** With this **Excel-based Macroeconomic Model**, you now have **a structured, automated way to analyze economic data** and **forecast trends**! ? ✅ **Works for traders, investors, and policymakers.** ✅ **Automatically updates economic data.** ✅ **Predicts trends using Excel’s built-in forecasting tools.** **How to Use the Macroeconomic Model for Active Intraday Trading** This guide explains how **intraday traders** can use the **Excel-based macroeconomic model** to **identify high-probability trades** and **adjust strategies based on economic conditions**. --- **1️⃣ Trading Inflation & Interest Rate Expectations** **Overview** Inflation (CPI) impacts **Federal Reserve rate decisions**, which drive **market volatility**. Intraday traders can position themselves based on inflation data and expectations. **How to Trade It** 1. **Compare the CPI forecast from Excel vs. the actual CPI release.** - If **CPI is higher than forecast**, expect **rate hikes** → Short **ES, NQ, tech stocks**. - If **CPI is lower than forecast**, expect **rate cuts** → Long **ES, NQ, financials**. 2. **Trade the market reaction within the first 15 minutes of CPI release.** - If CPI **spikes unexpectedly**, **fade the initial move** as market rebalances. - If CPI is **close to forecast**, look for a **trend continuation setup**. 3. **Use Options to Trade CPI Volatility** - Before CPI: **Buy SPY straddles (calls & puts) to profit from a large move.** - After CPI: **Sell credit spreads if volatility spikes (IV crush play).** --- **2️⃣ Trading GDP Growth & Market Sentiment** **Overview** A **strong GDP print** signals economic growth, pushing **risk assets higher**. A **weak GDP print** increases recession fears, leading to a **risk-off market**. **How to Trade It** 1. **Compare GDP forecast from Excel vs. actual GDP release.** - If **GDP > forecast**, expect bullish sentiment → Long **SPY, financials, commodities**. - If **GDP < forecast**, expect weakness → Short **SPY, NQ, and risk assets**. 2. **Pre-GDP Positioning** - If the model predicts a **strong GDP**, go long before the release using **ES futures or SPY calls**. - If it predicts a **weak GDP**, short the market or buy **put options**. 3. **Trade the Open After GDP Release** - If GDP **misses expectations**, **fade the initial rally** and short indices. - If GDP **beats expectations**, look for a **trend continuation play**. --- **3️⃣ Unemployment Rate & Job Market Strength** **Overview** A strong job market supports economic growth, while rising unemployment increases recession risks. **How to Trade It** 1. **Compare Excel’s Unemployment Forecast vs. the Actual Report.** - If **Unemployment > forecast**, expect market weakness → Short **ES, XLF (banks), IWM (small caps)**. - If **Unemployment < forecast**, go long **ES, SPY, growth stocks**. 2. **Sector Rotation Strategy** - Strong labor market → Buy **tech, consumer discretionary stocks (AMZN, TSLA, AAPL)**. - Weak labor market → Buy **defensive stocks (utilities, healthcare, staples)**. 3. **Gold & Safe Haven Flows** - If unemployment **rises faster than expected**, go long **gold (GLD), bonds (TLT)**. - If unemployment remains strong, short gold and buy **risk assets**. --- **4️⃣ Yield Curve Inversion & Equity Market Timing** **Overview** The **yield curve (10Y-2Y spread)** is a leading indicator of **economic slowdowns and recessions**. **How to Trade It** 1. **Monitor the 10Y-2Y Yield Spread in Excel.** - If spread **goes negative**, expect risk-off behavior → Short **SPY, NQ, and long bonds (TLT)**. - If the curve steepens → Expect economic expansion → Long **risk assets (SPY, growth stocks, XLF)**. 2. **Trade SPY vs. TLT Based on Yield Spreads** - If the **spread is negative**, short **SPY, long bonds (TLT, ZB futures)**. - If the **spread steepens**, long **SPY, short TLT**. --- **5️⃣ US Dollar Strength & Forex Trading** **Overview** The US dollar (DXY) impacts global markets. A strong USD **hurts commodities and emerging markets**, while a weak USD **boosts them**. **How to Trade It** 1. **Monitor the Fed Policy & Inflation Trends in Excel.** - If the Fed is **raising rates**, the USD strengthens → Short **gold, oil, emerging markets (EEM)**. - If the Fed is **cutting rates**, the USD weakens → Long **commodities, EM stocks**. 2. **Currency Trading Strategy** - Strong USD → Short **EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD**. - Weak USD → Long **EUR/USD, GBP/USD**. 3. **Oil & Commodities Trade** - **Strong USD** → Short **crude oil (CL futures), gold (XAU/USD)**. - **Weak USD** → Long **commodities & emerging markets**. --- **6️⃣ How to Set Up Macro-Based Trading Alerts in Excel** **Step 1: Automate Data Updates** - Use **Power Query** to **auto-refresh FRED data** in Excel. - Set Excel to **update every morning before market open**. **Step 2: Set Trading Rules in Excel** - Add **conditional formatting** to highlight important signals. - Use **IF formulas** to trigger buy/sell alerts. Example: ```excel =IF(CPI_Actual > CPI_Forecast, "SHORT ES", "BUY ES") ``` - Use `=TREND()` or `=FORECAST.LINEAR()` for trend projection. **Step 3: Backtest Strategies** - Download **historical S&P 500 data** from Yahoo Finance. - Compare **macro data vs. market returns** using the `=CORREL()` function. - Adjust strategies based on **historical market reactions**. --- 7️⃣ Final Thoughts on Using a Macroeconomic Model for Trading** By integrating **real-time macroeconomic data** into trading strategies, intraday traders can: ✅ **Anticipate market-moving events (CPI, GDP, Jobs Data, Fed Rate Hikes)**. ✅ **Position trades before key economic releases** for higher probability setups. ✅ **Use macro signals to validate technical trading decisions**.
2013 Market Cycle January to April 2013: • BTC price started trading above the PI Cycle Top indicator, signifying a strong uptrend. • Price consistently held above the daily 10 EMA for the entirety of the movement, confirming bullish momentum. Key Corrections During the Uptrend: Date Correction (%) Duration March 6-7 30% 2 days March 12 24% 1 day March 23 25% 1 day March 28 20% 1 day April 4 18% 1 day Summary: • Total of 5 major corrections during the uptrend. • Price consistently traded above the PI Cycle Top indicator for 70 days until reaching the top on April 10. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2013-2014 Market Cycle October 2013 to December 2013: • BTC price began another strong uptrend, trading above the PI Cycle Top indicator starting in October. Key Corrections During the Uptrend: Date Correction (%) Duration October 24 24% 1 day November 10 20% 1 day November 19-20 50% 2 days December 10 30% 1 day December 13 29% 1 day Transition to Downtrend: • A double top pattern emerged after the December corrections. • The price fell below the 10 EMA, signaling the start of a bear market. Summary: • Price traded consistently above the PI Cycle Top indicator for 46 days until the top in December 2013. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2017-2018 Market Cycle May 2017 to December 2017: • BTC price began trading consistently above the PI Cycle Top indicator in late May 2017. Key Corrections During the Uptrend: Date Correction (%) Duration May 25-27 30% 3 days June 12 39% 35 days September 2 40% Shorter than June November 8 30% 1 day December 8 23% 1 day Summary: Despite temporary corrections, the price maintained its uptrend and traded above the PI Cycle Top indicator for 80 days until the top on December 17. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2020-2021 Market Cycle December 2020 to April 2021: • BTC price began trading above the PI Cycle Top indicator on December 17, 2020. Key Corrections During the Uptrend: Date Correction (%) Duration January 9 30% 19 days February 22 25% 6 days March 14 18% 12 days Summary: • Price maintained its uptrend and traded consistently above the PI Cycle Top indicator until the cycle top on April 14, 2021. Overall Observations Across Cycles: 1. The PI Cycle Top indicator serves as a reliable reference for identifying strong uptrends. 2. Corrections of 20%-50% are common but often see recoveries above the 10 EMA or 50 EMA, depending on the market phase. 3. Prolonged trading above the PI Cycle Top indicator (ranging from 46 to 80 days) often precedes market tops. 4. Patterns of corrections and recoveries provide insights into market sentiment and momentum during each cycle. Additional Insight: • Over the cycles, every time the price consolidates above the PI Cycle Top indicator and forms a base over or around daily 10 EMA, it has indicated the start of an uptrend movement that eventually leads to the market top. 2013 https://www.tradingview.com/x/c0om5Nsq/ 2014 https://www.tradingview.com/x/I7sz3OTT/ 2017 https://www.tradingview.com/x/mNXNi3fZ/ 2020 https://www.tradingview.com/x/ytiS4r5n/
Following are three scenarios which you can trade today. Trade 1 Buys : if 30 min candle closes above 2941 than Buy with tp @ 2954. Trade 2 Buys : if 30 min candle rejects 2931 than Buy with TP @ 2939. Trade 3 Sells : if 30 min candle rejects 2939 than Sell with Tp @ 2931
Base on volume profile and price action XAU seem build for uptrend next to target 3000 USD/Ounce See details on my chart! Trade safe!
Bullish Breakout from Descending Channel: • The price has broken out of a descending channel (marked in blue), indicating a shift in momentum towards the upside. • This breakout suggests a potential continuation of the bullish trend. 2. Key Support & Resistance Levels: • Support Zones: • $2,920 - $2,925: A key retest zone where price might pull back before continuing upwards. • $2,880 - $2,890: A stronger support area in case of a deeper retracement. • Resistance Levels: • $2,960 - $2,980: The next target area where the price could face resistance. 3. Potential Price Action Scenarios: • The chart suggests two possible bullish movements: 1. A minor pullback to the support zone ($2,920 - $2,925) before continuing higher. 2. A direct breakout towards the next resistance zone around $2,960 - $2,980. 4. Volume Analysis: • Increasing volume indicates strong buying interest, supporting the bullish bias. Conclusion: Gold (XAU/USD) appears bullish after breaking out of the descending channel. Traders should watch the $2,920 support level for potential buy opportunities, with targets around $2,960 or higher. However, a breakdown below $2,920 could signal a deeper retracement.
Oil is in undecided territory right now on the verge of what looks like a macro shift, that said in the shorter term we can see a setup for a possible bullish move on the intraday. This is confluenced by the bullish 50 and 100 Moving Average Cross. My confidence in this trade is limited as, after all, it is Oil, but time will be the best teacher.
The RSI on ETH.D shows a large channel with a strong bearish favor Currently RSI is in oversold area I expect on this Weekly chart RSI to reverse and possible one day even get out of this extremely bearish state Weekly
WAR and Waste of Defense Budget The United States operates more than 750 military bases worldwide and spends $886 billion annually on defense. It is the world's largest military spender. Over the past 50 years, the U.S. has engaged in numerous wars around the world, pouring an enormous amount of money into conflicts. War is not just a military operation; it requires an overwhelming amount of financial resources. Looking at history, the biggest reason for the downfall of past empires was territorial expansion, endless wars, and the increasing cost of warfare. The Roman Empire, Spain, and Britain all followed the same pattern. They continuously fought wars, drained their national resources, and eventually collapsed. When looking at America's recent wars, it seems to be heading in a similar direction. U.S. War Spending Over the Last 50 Years Gulf War (1990–1991): $61 billion Somalia Civil War Intervention (1992–1994): $1.4 billion Bosnian War Intervention (1995): $3 billion Kosovo War Intervention (1999): $5 billion Afghanistan War (2001–2021): $2.3 trillion Iraq War (2003–2011): $1.9 trillion Libya Military Intervention (2011): $1 billion Syria Civil War Intervention (2014–present): $54 billion Yemen Civil War Support (2015–present): $5 billion Ukraine War Support (2022–present): $113 billion (as of 2024) This is all the money the U.S. has spent on wars in recent years. Considering that the Soviet Union collapsed after just one war in Afghanistan, it's quite remarkable that the U.S. has been able to engage in multiple wars and still sustain itself. In the past, the U.S. was considered the world's police force. However, when looking at the wars listed above, not many of them resulted in positive outcomes. Of course, if the U.S. had not actively intervened, there would have been far more ethnic conflicts, ideological wars, and massacres around the world. In fact, the free trade system that emerged after World War II was only possible because of U.S. naval dominance. Just like how we take the air we breathe for granted, if the U.S. had not been a dominant global power, international trade would have faced numerous problems and economic inefficiencies. However, over the past 50 years, has the U.S's war campaigns wasn't successfully Looking at wars like Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, the U.S. spent enormous amounts of money, but the results were far from satisfactory. They justified these wars by claiming to spread democracy and overthrow dictatorships, yet despite the sacrifices of many American soldiers, the post-war situations in these countries remained chaotic. What’s Next for the U.S.? Trump’s main goal seems to be reducing war spending. This is an unfortunate news for Ukraine, but for the U.S., it is a strategic move to prevent itself from collapsing like Britain or the Roman Empire due to excessive military spending. From my perspective, Trump is not aiming to not really reduce U.S. military presence around the world, but rather to maintain influence while making other countries pay more. And eventually, the U.S. may choose not to engage in future wars. His push for increased defense spending from NATO and Asian allies is part of this strategy.
Gold price seems to exhibit signs of overall bullish continuation on the Longer Timeframes as the price action may break the previous All Time High of 2956. A potential break may be indicative of another top OR a new high. We take our chance on the basis of a proper Bullish Breakout. Trade Plan : Entry @ 2967 Stop Loss @ 2822 TP 1 @ 3112
Here is the current 4 Hour range within the 1st zone I was looking for. Personally, I still see more downside as bears are still in control. There is potential for a breakout on the 4HR but confirming congruence on the Daily has me hesitant as the Daily Timeframe would still hold a downward trend. —————————————————————— Diving further into the structure of the candles I noticed there are more wicks from the bottom side of the candles than the top; a confirmation bears and the downward trend are still in control. Bulls are starting to defend this level, but to me it’s a sign that buy side liquidity it being created. If I’m a seller, this is a great place to manage risk for further downside. If I’m a buyer, I’m being patient as the retracement back to supply seems to be almost over.