In 2022 SPX hit the 4.23 extension of the 2008 crash and went into about a year long bear move. Now we're trading back above that and around where I'd think max reasonable tolerance for a 4.23 false breakout would be. Major 4.23 breakouts are historically exceptional events. In this post I'll show you examples of what happened on breaks of them. Let's first look at the evidence for these fibs having been useful before for the SPX rally. We'll look and see if they have reactions that would seem "Beyond chance" and if they do, then it's reasonable to think the 4.23 decision will be important too, right? And if not, then no. But obviously we'd not have a post if not. https://www.tradingview.com/x/zsHF52jt/ Quite useful. Not perfect, certainly very useful. Being aware of big decisions at or around these levels helped a lot. The 4.23 reaction here was very shallow. 4.23's are prone to much deeper corrections and this would be a big risk if we're inside of a false breakout of the 4.23. But if we're actually breaking it, something wild usually happens above the 4.23. Here's the fibs from the Black Monday move. https://www.tradingview.com/x/JgGs3YV8/ The breakout above it would go on to be known as the dotcom and housing bubbles and the GFC crash would end on the 4.23 retest. Interesting, right? That was around 1996 and that happened to be the same time Nasdaq broke the 4.23. https://www.tradingview.com/x/YpN2iX8t/ This happened after the Nasdaq break. https://www.tradingview.com/x/qPE6cvre/ A headliner stock of the Nasdaq bubble was CSCO. That had a couple big reactions to fibs on the way up and broke the 4.23. https://www.tradingview.com/x/W49uHKuI/ And this happened. https://www.tradingview.com/x/vSX7Qp4F/ Remember that time GME went up 100% in a day? https://www.tradingview.com/x/856OQTWO/ That was on the 4.23 break. https://www.tradingview.com/x/4dGrkKvL/ Then it hyper boomed and mean reverted. As with the other examples. This is a fun one. It's off topic on the bull stuff but we'll be quick. Remember that time some oil contracts negative? https://www.tradingview.com/x/6Jr12kLq/ 4.23 breaks usually look something like this. https://www.tradingview.com/x/vVfjCsvc/ The red trend feeling extremely strong at the time but being tame relative to the blue trend. This part of the move will have some crash pullbacks in it but feature exceptional bullish engulfing candles. https://www.tradingview.com/x/7G167xqI/ All of that stuff almost invariably ends up in a bust, but it's a lot of fun at the time.
Checkout an amazing breakout happened in the stock in Weekly timeframe, macroscopically seen in Daily timeframe. Having a great favor that the stock might be bullish expecting a staggering returns of minimum 25% TGT. IMPORTANT BREAKOUT LEVELS ARE ALWAYS RESPECTED! NOTE for learners: Place the breakout levels as per the chart shared and track it yourself to get amazed!! #No complicated chart patterns #No big big indicators #No Excel sheet or number magics TRADE IDEA: WAIT FOR THE STOCK TO BREAKOUT IN LOWER TIMEFRAME AND RETRACE IF NEEDED. SL IS NEARER SUPPORT ZONE IN Daily TIMEFRAME. Checkout an amazing breakout happened in the stock in Weekly timeframe. Breakouts happening in longer timeframe is way more powerful than the breakouts seen in Daily timeframe. You can blindly invest once the weekly candle closes above the breakout line and stay invested forever. Also these stocks breakouts are lifelong predictions, it means technically these breakouts happen giving more returns in the longer runs. Hence, even when the scrip makes a loss of 10% / 20% / 30% / 50%, the stock will regain and turn around. Once they again enter the same breakout level, they will flyyyyyyyyyyyy like a ROCKET if held in the portfolio in the longer run. Time makes money, GREEDY & EGO will not make money. Also, magically these breakouts tend to prove that the companies turn around and fundamentally becoming strong. Also the magic happens when more diversification is done in various sectors under various scripts with equal money invested in each N500 scripts. The real deal is when to purchase and where to purchase the stock. That is where Breakout study comes into play. LET'S PUMP IN SOME MONEY AND REVOLUTIONIZE THE NATION'S ECONOMY!
Checkout an amazing breakout happened in the stock in Weekly timeframe, macroscopically seen in Daily timeframe. Having a great favor that the stock might be bullish expecting a staggering returns of minimum 25% TGT. IMPORTANT BREAKOUT LEVELS ARE ALWAYS RESPECTED! NOTE for learners: Place the breakout levels as per the chart shared and track it yourself to get amazed!! #No complicated chart patterns #No big big indicators #No Excel sheet or number magics TRADE IDEA: WAIT FOR THE STOCK TO BREAKOUT IN LOWER TIMEFRAME AND RETRACE IF NEEDED. SL IS NEARER SUPPORT ZONE IN Daily TIMEFRAME. Checkout an amazing breakout happened in the stock in Weekly timeframe. Breakouts happening in longer timeframe is way more powerful than the breakouts seen in Daily timeframe. You can blindly invest once the weekly candle closes above the breakout line and stay invested forever. Also these stocks breakouts are lifelong predictions, it means technically these breakouts happen giving more returns in the longer runs. Hence, even when the scrip makes a loss of 10% / 20% / 30% / 50%, the stock will regain and turn around. Once they again enter the same breakout level, they will flyyyyyyyyyyyy like a ROCKET if held in the portfolio in the longer run. Time makes money, GREEDY & EGO will not make money. Also, magically these breakouts tend to prove that the companies turn around and fundamentally becoming strong. Also the magic happens when more diversification is done in various sectors under various scripts with equal money invested in each N500 scripts. The real deal is when to purchase and where to purchase the stock. That is where Breakout study comes into play. LET'S PUMP IN SOME MONEY AND REVOLUTIONIZE THE NATION'S ECONOMY!
Bitcoin closed yesterday's session at the highest price ever, a close at $101,431.58. There has been only two instances when Bitcoin traded higher and this happened on a wick, the 12th December and the ATH. What to make of this development? What will happen next? Bitcoin is moving within a bullish consolidation pattern, slowly climbing higher. This pattern is quite revealing and leaves no doubt as to what is most likely to happen next. The more often a resistance level is challenged, the weaker it becomes. There is another one, retraces are non-existent. No corrections either. This means that Bitcoin is super strong. Bitcoin being super strong supports the conclusion that I am about to reach based on the current chart and price action, higher prices next. Bitcoin is set to hit a new All-Time High The charts don't lie. The charts can't lie. Bitcoin is headed towards a new All-Time High. Bitcoin has been bullish, rising and moving up. Bitcoin has been the strongest it has ever been ever, and all the sellers are being bought. Today's session is trading above the highest close (blue line on the chart). Today's session continues to push higher within this clear consolidation pattern. Notice that this is not a rising wedge which has bearish implications, but rather a bullish pennant... Where is the correction? So many people are calling for a correction right now but Bitcoin is going up. I think it is about to break a new resistance level because the Altcoins, which have been wild lately, suddenly stopped. Why would the Altcoins stop at this point? Because Bitcoin is about to blow up. You know how it works don't you? When Bitcoin is trading this high and produces an advance it tends to suck all the energy off the market. It just grows and everything starts to rest. When Bitcoin takes its break, the rest of the market moves ahead. I've been saying sideways and sideways has been happening and this is consolidation, doesn't mean that it has to go forever or that we will ignore the charts potential. I can come up with a target, with clear signals an analysis and such. But if we see an advance, we have to adapt to the chart. Would you say Bitcoin is bearish and set to crash when it never looked back after moving above 80K? It conquered $80,000 11-November, the strongest support right now on flash crash stands above 90K. We are talking about extreme strength, literally, and this is as normal as it gets. Just think back to previous halving periods, after the halving, one correction and then massive growth long-term. It is always surprising, it just go and go and go and go... No stop, people always expecting for a crash that doesn't happen because Bitcoin is going up. When Bitcoin goes bullish, turns bullish, there is no stop. This is good and welcome for Cryptocurrency as a whole. We want Bitcoin to rise and we enjoy Bitcoin rising because the more Bitcoin rises the more the market grows. Money that enters Bitcoin eventually finds its way to all sectors of the market. Support Bitcoin and you are support Crypto. Support Crypto and you support freedom, innovation and growth. We live in a technological society. Bitcoin is the perfect currency for a digital world. Email, websites, social apps and Bitcoin. Thanks a lot for your continued support. Any retraces and corrections should be bought. If prices drop, welcome this drop as an opportunity to buy-in, rebuy and reload. Namaste.
Checkout an amazing breakout happened in the stock in Weekly timeframe, macroscopically seen in Daily timeframe. Having a great favor that the stock might be bullish expecting a staggering returns of minimum 25% TGT. IMPORTANT BREAKOUT LEVELS ARE ALWAYS RESPECTED! NOTE for learners: Place the breakout levels as per the chart shared and track it yourself to get amazed!! #No complicated chart patterns #No big big indicators #No Excel sheet or number magics TRADE IDEA: WAIT FOR THE STOCK TO BREAKOUT IN LOWER TIMEFRAME AND RETRACE IF NEEDED. SL IS NEARER SUPPORT ZONE IN Daily TIMEFRAME. Checkout an amazing breakout happened in the stock in Weekly timeframe. Breakouts happening in longer timeframe is way more powerful than the breakouts seen in Daily timeframe. You can blindly invest once the weekly candle closes above the breakout line and stay invested forever. Also these stocks breakouts are lifelong predictions, it means technically these breakouts happen giving more returns in the longer runs. Hence, even when the scrip makes a loss of 10% / 20% / 30% / 50%, the stock will regain and turn around. Once they again enter the same breakout level, they will flyyyyyyyyyyyy like a ROCKET if held in the portfolio in the longer run. Time makes money, GREEDY & EGO will not make money. Also, magically these breakouts tend to prove that the companies turn around and fundamentally becoming strong. Also the magic happens when more diversification is done in various sectors under various scripts with equal money invested in each N500 scripts. The real deal is when to purchase and where to purchase the stock. That is where Breakout study comes into play. LET'S PUMP IN SOME MONEY AND REVOLUTIONIZE THE NATION'S ECONOMY!
Checkout an amazing breakout happened in the stock in Weekly timeframe, macroscopically seen in Daily timeframe. Having a great favor that the stock might be bullish expecting a staggering returns of minimum 25% TGT. IMPORTANT BREAKOUT LEVELS ARE ALWAYS RESPECTED! NOTE for learners: Place the breakout levels as per the chart shared and track it yourself to get amazed!! #No complicated chart patterns #No big big indicators #No Excel sheet or number magics TRADE IDEA: WAIT FOR THE STOCK TO BREAKOUT IN LOWER TIMEFRAME AND RETRACE IF NEEDED. SL IS NEARER SUPPORT ZONE IN Daily TIMEFRAME. Checkout an amazing breakout happened in the stock in Weekly timeframe. Breakouts happening in longer timeframe is way more powerful than the breakouts seen in Daily timeframe. You can blindly invest once the weekly candle closes above the breakout line and stay invested forever. Also these stocks breakouts are lifelong predictions, it means technically these breakouts happen giving more returns in the longer runs. Hence, even when the scrip makes a loss of 10% / 20% / 30% / 50%, the stock will regain and turn around. Once they again enter the same breakout level, they will flyyyyyyyyyyyy like a ROCKET if held in the portfolio in the longer run. Time makes money, GREEDY & EGO will not make money. Also, magically these breakouts tend to prove that the companies turn around and fundamentally becoming strong. Also the magic happens when more diversification is done in various sectors under various scripts with equal money invested in each N500 scripts. The real deal is when to purchase and where to purchase the stock. That is where Breakout study comes into play. LET'S PUMP IN SOME MONEY AND REVOLUTIONIZE THE NATION'S ECONOMY!
Checkout an amazing breakout happened in the stock in Weekly timeframe, macroscopically seen in Daily timeframe. Having a great favor that the stock might be bullish expecting a staggering returns of minimum 25% TGT. IMPORTANT BREAKOUT LEVELS ARE ALWAYS RESPECTED! NOTE for learners: Place the breakout levels as per the chart shared and track it yourself to get amazed!! #No complicated chart patterns #No big big indicators #No Excel sheet or number magics TRADE IDEA: WAIT FOR THE STOCK TO BREAKOUT IN LOWER TIMEFRAME AND RETRACE IF NEEDED. SL IS NEARER SUPPORT ZONE IN Daily TIMEFRAME. Checkout an amazing breakout happened in the stock in Weekly timeframe. Breakouts happening in longer timeframe is way more powerful than the breakouts seen in Daily timeframe. You can blindly invest once the weekly candle closes above the breakout line and stay invested forever. Also these stocks breakouts are lifelong predictions, it means technically these breakouts happen giving more returns in the longer runs. Hence, even when the scrip makes a loss of 10% / 20% / 30% / 50%, the stock will regain and turn around. Once they again enter the same breakout level, they will flyyyyyyyyyyyy like a ROCKET if held in the portfolio in the longer run. Time makes money, GREEDY & EGO will not make money. Also, magically these breakouts tend to prove that the companies turn around and fundamentally becoming strong. Also the magic happens when more diversification is done in various sectors under various scripts with equal money invested in each N500 scripts. The real deal is when to purchase and where to purchase the stock. That is where Breakout study comes into play. LET'S PUMP IN SOME MONEY AND REVOLUTIONIZE THE NATION'S ECONOMY!
Decoding the Signals: Is the Live Cattle Market Poised for a Bearish Shift? “There is a system in chaos, a signal in the noise.” Every week, the Commitment of Traders (COT) strategy uncovers setups across markets. This week, Live Cattle has emerged as a standout opportunity—one that suggests a significant bearish move may be on the horizon. But let me be clear: this isn’t an invitation to blindly short the market. It’s a call to decode the signals, understand the conditions, and prepare for what could be a meaningful shift. Let’s dive into the evidence. Code 1: Extreme Positioning The Commercial and Small Speculator Indexes, using a 26-week lookback, are both at extremes in short positioning. When Commercials—the smart money—position themselves this aggressively, it’s a sign that something is brewing. Code 2: Small Spec Extremes (Don't Fade The Small Specs in Meat Markets) Small Speculators are at a 3-year extreme in short positioning. Here’s where Live Cattle differs from most markets: in this space, Small Specs often get it right. Also, we see the “Bubble-Up” phenomenon: the net open interest lines of Small Specs and Commercials "bubbling up" against the Large Specs. This pattern often precedes major turning points, signaling that a shift is possibly near. Code 3: Overvaluation Using the WillVal indicator, we see that Live Cattle is overvalued relative to gold. Markets tend to correct misalignments in value, and this overvaluation points to a downside recalibration. When the market’s perception doesn’t align with reality, the result is rarely subtle. Seasonals: A Fly in the Ointment? Seasonal tendencies suggest Live Cattle typically trends upward until February. However, seasonals reflect historical patterns—what has happened in the past. Positioning data, on the other hand, shows us what’s happening now. Given the extreme positioning currently in play, it’s likely the seasonal tendency will fail to materialize this time. Distribution Signals Signs of distribution are evident across multiple indicators: Insider Accumulation Index: suggests institutions are quietly offloading positions. POIV and ProGo divergence: further confirmation that the smart money is exiting. Distribution is the hallmark of a market top. When the signs are this clear, the question isn’t if the market will turn but when. Spread Weakening The spread between the front-month and the next-month-out contracts in Live Cattle is weakening. This weakening spread indicates a shift in market sentiment. A weakening spread often reflects reduced demand for the front month or increasing supply pressures, both of which align with a bearish narrative. When the spread no longer supports bullish momentum, it’s another signal that the tide is turning. Additional Bearish Indicators The weight of evidence continues to stack: %R is firmly in the sell zone. Weekly and daily bearish divergences in the Ultimate Oscillator. A confirmed weekly bearish momentum divergence. These signals reinforce the bearish case, painting a clear picture of a market under pressure. What Will You Do With This Information? Here’s where many traders falter. It’s easy to see the signals and jump in prematurely. But setups like these are not a green light to enter—they are a call to prepare. Timing is everything. Successful trading isn’t just about identifying opportunities—it’s about executing with precision. The Live Cattle market may be gearing up for a bearish move, but the key lies in waiting for the right entry trigger. The Privilege of Understanding Most traders never see these signals. They’re too caught up in noise, emotions, and guesswork. But you’re different. You’ve been given a glimpse of how the market truly works—a rare opportunity to decode its hidden signals. If you’re ready to step further into this world, to see the Matrix for what it is and act with clarity and purpose, the journey awaits. Want to learn how to decode the market like this? Stick with me, and let’s break free from the herd together.
Im seeing Bullish divergence on the daily chart on USDT.D and also bearish divergence on the daily chart of BTC. Sooner or later we'll have our huge volatility but according to what im seeing in these charts it is more probable that we'll get a correction and a big discount on alt coins. We musr wait and see how the market moves in the near future. DYOR Goodluck
I'm always looking for signs of a change in trend direction. A good indicator has always been; 1. A series of higher highs in the price-action, with 2. A corresponding series of lower highs on the RSI (for major trend changes or corrections I use the daily time-frame), 3. Ideally, three lower highs on RSI (sometimes you only get two), with the final RSI high FAILING to get above the 70 level of RSI (red circle). To me this signals - at a minimum - a correction is inbound. So, I would look for other indicators to determine if I think if it is a correction or a trend-change i.e. bear market. There is a plausible Elliot Wave count. Without getting too technical, I see the 105 to 108k as the end of the trend. Could be wrong, could be right. If I am right I should get a medal for accuracy. Happy trading.