Carabao Group's valuation and earnings have narrowed compressing its multiple. This is mainly because its stock price went through a euphoric phase which coincided with a global market blow off top in 2020-2021. The stock price overshot and has been compressing while the company tries to grow into its high multiple. What we have seen is a trend reversal from its high of +- 158 baht The downtrend and its counter rallies were sold off as profit takers took gains and while many others panic sold who bought at the top, this was done to cut losses, by selling into counter rallies. ( which we can see in its downtrend). We have these peaks and then sharp sell offs. This has caused downward pressure in the share price and has led to constant sell offs at key resistance areas, meaning people who have been waiting to get out now decide to sell. This speaks to the dangers of buying a good company, but at overpriced levels. ( at some point valuations matter) However, What we are seeing now is a slowing in the momentum of sellers, indicating exhaustion and a potential trend reversal to the upside. The triple bottom at a significant support adds to this. Carabao now looks to be building a base above 60 baht, and although there is still some selling pressure at 80baht, and we could still see a retest back down to 69 baht, it would be healthy and most likely a good entry point. We could see the stock trading between 80baht-100 baht again by Q1 of 2025.
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After a strong uptrend finally price cooldown and trading near multiyear trendline (act as a low risk zone )
One can keep an eye on this, Looking good on this levels. Not a buying or selling recommendation...
Contrary to my last post, bias has flipped due to 4H BOS.
Regardless of a Thanksgiving Holiday in the US, during the previous week the 10Y US Treasury yields slides back till the levels from October this year. The yields started the week around the level of 4,42% while they are ending the week at 4,17%. Feds favourite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index was released early in the week, which was in line with market expectations. On the other hand, FOMC November meeting minutes were released suggesting a Feds members conclusion that in case of further inflation relaxation and labour data in line with their expectations, there will be a case for further rate cuts. At this moment, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests 66% odds that the Fed might cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at their December meeting. The US Treasury yields reacted to these expectations. As per current sentiment, there is still space for a further drop in yields, at least until the market properly tests the 4,0% level. It should be considered that Non-farm Payrolls are scheduled to be released in a week ahead, in which sense, some volatility might follow the US yields.
The chart highlights a consolidation phase near a resistance zone after a bullish move from lower levels. Below is a detailed analysis, including the bullish and bearish scenarios, with potential entry and exit points. Key Observations Trend Overview: The price has been consolidating near the 24,376–24,400 resistance zone after a sharp uptrend. A clear breakout above this resistance could confirm further bullish momentum, while rejection at this level may signal a pullback. Support Levels: 24,164–24,190: Key support zone (aligned with NY Midnight Open at 24,191.2), providing short-term buying interest. 23,608–23,650: Major demand zone where the prior uptrend originated, acting as a strong support level. Resistance Levels: 24,376–24,400: Immediate resistance zone, with visible selling pressure. 24,568–24,600: Secondary resistance zone and potential breakout target. 24,724–24,750: Major resistance area, marking the extended bullish target. Volume Analysis: High Sell Volume (512.65K): Indicates significant selling pressure near 24,376, confirming this as a key resistance level. Buy-side interest remains active near 24,190, preventing a deeper correction so far. Bullish Scenario Conditions for a Bullish Move: Price must break above 24,400 with strong volume, confirming a breakout of the resistance zone. Sustained buying pressure would push the price toward higher resistance levels. Entry Points: Aggressive Entry: Buy near the 24,164–24,190 support zone, with a stop-loss below 24,150. Conservative Entry: Buy on a confirmed breakout and retest above 24,400, with a stop-loss below 24,350. Exit Points (Take Profit): First Target: $24,568–$24,600 (secondary resistance zone). Second Target: $24,724–$24,750 (major resistance and extended target). Invalidation: A breakdown below 24,150 would invalidate the bullish setup. Bearish Scenario Conditions for a Bearish Move: Price fails to break above 24,400, indicating strong selling pressure. A confirmed breakdown below 24,164 would open the path for further downside. Entry Points: Aggressive Entry: Short near the 24,376–24,400 resistance zone if rejection is visible, with a stop-loss above 24,420. Conservative Entry: Short after a confirmed breakdown below 24,164, with a stop-loss above 24,200. Exit Points (Take Profit): First Target: $24,000 (psychological support level). Second Target: $23,650–$23,608 (major demand zone and strong support). Invalidation: A breakout above 24,420 would signal potential bullish continuation. Key Indicators to Monitor Volume Behavior: Watch for increased buying volume near 24,190, supporting the bullish case. Sustained selling volume near 24,400 would confirm bearish rejection. Breakout Levels: A breakout above 24,400 could trigger bullish momentum toward 24,568 or higher. A breakdown below 24,164 signals a bearish move targeting lower levels. Market Sentiment: The consolidation phase suggests indecision; a breakout or breakdown will clarify the direction. Summary of Probable Entry & Exit Points Scenario Entry Zone Stop-Loss Target Levels Bullish $24,164–$24,190 (Aggressive) or above $24,400 (Conservative) $24,150 $24,568, $24,724 Bearish $24,376–$24,400 (Aggressive) or below $24,164 (Conservative) $24,420 $24,000, $23,608 Conclusion Bullish Outlook: A breakout above 24,400 can lead to a rally toward 24,568 and potentially 24,724. Bearish Outlook: A failure to break 24,400 or a breakdown below 24,164 may lead to declines toward 24,000 or 23,608. Traders should monitor the price action around 24,400 and 24,164 to identify the next significant move, while using tight stop-losses to manage risk.
MSTCITD Very nice 752 Buy Is good BTST Good Weekly Breakout level Study and buy only for Education purpose
As geopolitical tensions weakened during the previous week, and following negative correlation toward the US Dollar strengthening, the price of gold made a short term correction during the previous week. The price of gold started the week by testing the $2,7K resistance line, however, it swiftly reverted toward the downside, reaching its lowest weekly level at $2.611. Still, as of the weekend market was in a better mood, so the price of gold is ending the week at $2.670, touching the MA50 line. The RSI was modestly corrected from the level of 57, down to the level of 50. Since the indicator manages to hold above the line of 50, shows that the market is still not ready to give up from the track toward the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days is slowing down its divergence from the MA 200, however, there is no clear indication that the two lines are ready to start their convergence path. The price of gold tested the $2,6K support line, and without a strength for a further move toward the downside, the price reverted a bit toward the $2.670. As per current charts, there is still positive sentiment which might bring the price of gold toward the higher grounds, at least till the next resistance line at $2,7K. This level might easily be tested during the week ahead, however, there is currently no indication that the level could be breached.
Analysts are noting that the S&P 500 ended its best week in 2024. Although the year is slowly approaching the New Year holidays in December, the market sentiment continues to remain quite strong. The index reached its fresh new all time highest level at 6.043, breaking its 6K level. One of the topics which pushed the semiconductor and chip producers shares to the upside was the Bloomberg report, which noted that additional barriers on the sale of semiconductors to China, imposed by the Biden administration, was not so severe, as the market previously perceived. Market favourite Nvidia surged by 3%, while other semiconductor and chip producers followed the move. Some influence to the equity market came also from the US bonds market, which eased in expectation of further rate cuts and its positive impact to the economy. As per CME Group FedWatch Tool there is currently 66% odds that the Fed will cut interest rates at their December meeting by additional 25 bps. As long as such a sentiment strongly holds on the market, it could be expected to have a further positive impact on the value of the equity index till its final slowdown nearing the New Year Holiday. At this point, the S&P 500 gained around 24% for the year, which is its best yearly results since 2021.