Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: tl;dr covered it. Markets denied me fantasy, tough excrement. On the weekly chart it’s still just a textbook two-legged pullback to the moving average (daily 20 in this case, which is around 20000). We are also still close enough to the 50% retracement that it’s not out of the question that we reverse from here. Issue for the bears is, that the market went very strong into the weekend, which is a buy signal going into next week. Unless the bears get big help from newsbombs, it’s likely to expect more upside. Targets above are 20000 and then 20500. Below 19200 the next target would be 19000. current market cycle: bear trend but above 19388 it ends and we will be in a giant trading range key levels: 15500 - 19500 bull case: 20000 is the obvious target for bulls and for now my thesis is that we wont break above 20600. 20050/20540 would be my next targets above it. The weekly 20ema is right around those prices and that is where the panic selling again. Bulls see the move last week as strong enough that we are likely in a greater trading range which could even get up to 22000 again. Is it likely though? If you are a bull and bought 18000, your stop is likely 19200 now or maybe 19000. Do you hope to make 20500? I don’t know how you can structure a decent trade around that. More likely is the play that we are in a strong uptrend on the 1h tf and if the bull trend line, which is currently at 19100 - holds, we can continue. Once we are making meaningful lower lows again and fail to make new highs, this momentum is gone and bulls run for the exits again. Short squeezes are violent and can go on for much longer than anyone expects but once they stall too much, they crumble again. Invalidation is below 18000. bear case: Tough to be a bear. Momentum is clearly on the long side and bulls have almost no resistance. Bears can still argue this was just a test of the 50% retracement and if we build enough selling pressure, I think it’s more likely that the squeeze abruptly ends than continuation up. When all become max bullish again because the move is so strong that it must be the start of a new trend, that’s when these squeezes end and we crash down again. We did this so many times in 2022 that it’s hard to not remember them. You don’t have to go back to 2008 to find examples. Invalidation is above 20500ish, max 20536 but above 20080 we likely go for 20600 or higher. short term: Neutral at best. Way too early to short anything or look for shorts. Need to stop the higher highs and go sideways first. It’s best to not sell the first sign of bear strength, ever. Same for bounces in a bear trend. Never buy the first. You can get lucky but it’s just that. medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-26: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We had the clear W1 and W3 but now it’s messy. Bear trend most likely over. We could maybe get another strong move down but it’s more likely that even then, we are in a trading range and until we see much more hints of a deeper recession, we can not assume that this will go much lower than 16452. Market is currently probing where the high of it is and for now I doubt we will see 21000 again but that’s a very rough guess.
Ethereum (ETH) is currently retesting the breakout zone around $1,800 after a strong bullish move. As long as the price holds above the $1,800-$1,801 support area, a continuation towards higher levels is expected. Key resistance levels to watch: 1,946.5 (psychological resistance) 2,114.7 2,241.5 (major target) A successful retest and bullish confirmation could trigger a rally towards the 2,200+ zone. Plan: Look for bullish signals on lower timeframes around $1,800 support. Consider entering long positions with targets at 1,946.5, 2,114.7, and 2,241.5. Place stop-loss orders slightly below the $1,800 zone to manage risk effectively.
Over 10 days has been spent trading inside of Wednesday 9th April 2025 daily candle with Friday 25th being the day that we witnessed expansion through buyside liquidity. I would like to see a continuation further inside of the weekly SIBI of $5,649.75 - $5,532 C.E. Low hanging fruits going into next week guys!
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: This is a short squeeze and very little could concinve me otherwise. Does it matter? No. We are going higher and until bears print a big bear bar again, bulls remain in full control. 8 Consecutive daily bull bars is always something special. Above 22700 there is no reason not to go for 24000. current market cycle: Trading range - bull trend on the 1h tf key levels: 21500 - 24000 bull case: Big breakout on Wednesday with follow-through. Bulls want to go above the start of the panic selling down at 22735ish. If they do, I doubt there will be much resistance until we print a new ath and even then the first pullback will likely be bought again. The volume is atrocious compared to the selling weeks but that is unimportant. Market is going higher, low volume or not. Stops are not dependent on volume. Below 21900 most bulls will likely think the squeeze is over and secure profits. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears last hope is that prior support turned resistance and we stay below 22700. How likely is that? Given that we have not seen a red daily close for 2 weeks, very very unlikely. What would change my mind? Daily big bear bar closing on it’s low below 21900. Nothing else. We have a clear bull trend line and until that is clearly broken, bulls remain in full control. I do think this is a gift to late bulls who did not sell yet. If I had long term longs, I’d thank the lord for a second opportunity to exit them. We will see lower lows below 19000 this year. Zero doubt. 22700 short term: Neutral. Bullish above 22700 for 24000 and bearish only below 21900 on very strong momentum. Bears have turned this bearish again only with a break of the bull trend line and gap close to 21400. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is over. We could still print a lower high below 23000 and go down to 19000 or lower but that would rather be a very shallow broad bear channel. Yes, it can be shallow due to marginally lower highs and lower lows but broad because the range is huge. Can we go much below 19000 this year? Only with a deep recession. We could already be in one but for now it’s unlikely. US tariffs will duck excrements up but it will take more time to manifest.
Trade Details: Leverage: CROSS 15x - 20x Entry: 348 - 351 USDT Stop: 361.1 USDT Targets: TP1: 332 USDT TP2: 319 USDT TP3: 300 USDT Why This Trade Makes Sense: ✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss placed at 361.1 USDT ensures protection above the supply levels. ✅ Strategic Targets: The targets are set at key support levels (332, 319, and 300 USDT), where price is likely to react. Final Thought: With tight risk management and logical profit-taking targets, it offers a solid chance to ride the market lower. Patience and discipline are key—keep an eye on price action and stick to the plan!
In its best traditions, bitcoin in one impulse reached the monthly target 95000, which I wrote about The probability of a correction to set a higher low in the equilibrium area of the range is increasing. Probably in May the crypto market will have to pass the last stability test, in case of success we will get excellent opportunities for spot and speculative positions before the next cyclical growth spiral. For now have to wait for weekly open but there are 2 options: pump till PWH and then move on correction slow bleeding till 0.5 or mb till 83k in worst case and then pump to ATH
Weekly Analysis: Swing Structure -> Bullish. Internal Structure -> Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 16 March 2025. In my analysis dated 27 October 2024 I mentioned (below) that price could potentially print higher-highs in order to reposition CHoCH. This is exactly how price printed. CHoCH positioning has been brought significantly closer to current price action. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a shortened blue dotted horizontal line. The remainder of my analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line. Price Action Analysis: In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH. Note: It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend. Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty and potential repricing of Gold. Weekly Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/12XVDcq9/ Daily Analysis: Swing -> Bullish. Internal -> Bullish. Since my last weekly analysis price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Price is now trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a shortened blue horizontal dotted line. First indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation is for price to print bearish CHoCH. Note: With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty and the repricing of Gold. Daily Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Rb8KP9Na/ H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025 Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. H4 Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/autskQkH/
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Very bullish breakout on Tuesday, now bears last hope before 100000 is if maybe prior support has turned resistance. I marked the area with the red box. How likely is it? Very unlikely. Much more likely is a measured move up which could lead to 101000ish. current market cycle: weekly chart says continuation of the bull trend but i highly doubt it. much more likely we are in a big trading range 73000 - 110000 key levels: 85k - 100k (if bears somehow manage to get below 85k again, we test 80k next) bull case: Big breakout above 90000 and now 100000 is the obvious next target. The lowest measured move up I can see is 101000 but I want to see market reaction around 100000 first before I look for higher targets. Bulls are in full control of this but any pullback should stay above 88000. Invalidation is below 88000. bear case: Bears gave up on Tuesday and I think more will wait for 100000 and see if bulls take profits there before initiating new shorts. Until bears can get a daily close below 88000 again, they don’t have much. Invalidation is above 101k. short term: Neutral but bullish above 96k on good momentum for 100k. No shorts until bears show strength again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-13: Bear targets for this year are met. Now we likely range before we get new impulse to either side. I wait for market reaction around 100000 before I write more here. For now my assumption is still that this will be a trading range 73000 - 100000 for longer than a retest or even new highs.
LOOKS GOOD. The graphing indicator looks good based on the fascinating relationship to where the whereabouts of the price remains inline with the outward pressure all around the world; I better get going then why don't I.
The British Pound (GBP) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) is showing signs of exhaustion near the 1.3300 level, forming a potential lower high. If the price confirms a break below the immediate support, we could see an aggressive bearish move targeting lower support zones. Key support levels to watch: 1.32497 1.30997 1.29233 1.27056 A clean break below 1.32497 could accelerate the sell-off, with a major downside target near 1.27056. Plan: Monitor price action around the current level. Look for bearish confirmation signals to enter short positions. Place stop-loss orders above recent highs and manage risk accordingly.