Now Bitcoin is in the Premium zone, where it is better to consider short positions for a short-term movement to the Discount zone. If the Market Maker goes for equal lows, which is a good exit point, or if the Market Maker goes long, then the exact entry will be better in the Discount zone, return to where the accumulation was, and see what candles will be formed at this level. If we look at TOTAL 1 2 3, we will see that these assets are also in the Premium zone, which can also be good support for short positions.
HTF Structure Mitigated. Looking for a new swing low
This is a continuation to my previously posted trade... Unfortunately I stopped out on the previous trade. That's my fault. There's additional analysis I did that helped me understand where I missed. However, the pattern is still very much in tact and the opportunity still exists. Here's a summary of what I go through in the video, but most important is watch the video to get the full details to better understand the observations. 1hr Chart: After reviewing the weekly, daily, 4hr, 1hr, 5min, 1min charts I recognized the most important indicator for the current prices is the 1hr chart and most important the 50MA crossing down on the 200MA. In addition, there are additional indicators that currently and historically are most important for this setup. Here are the 5 mentioned in the video. - H&S Pattern/Triple Top/Divergence initial formation - Cross down on Strong Support Line - Retest/Fail Strong Support Line - A wave up/down, forming a downward trendline - QQE Signal triggering short as it approaches the channel support line towards a break Historically there have been 4 instances since 2022 when the 50MA has crossed below the 200MA on the 1hr chart July 26, 2024 - -5.0% in 48 bars (5-6 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move Apr 15, 2024 - -3.70% 35 bars (7 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move Aug 10. 2023 - -3.75% 40 bars (7 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move Feb 24. 2023 - -5.8% 75 bars (10 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move As mentioned in the video, it has been 7 trading days since the current cross of the 50MA of the 200MA, however, it's unique that the cross took place during the low volume holiday trading period which may have an effect on timing compared to historical moves. Please watch the video for more in depth insight into the historical pattern formations and the relationship to the current price action along with my prediction and trade potential. Fundamental Support: Is still intact from the prior trade - Buffer Indicator 203.7% (Near all time highs) - Buffet portfolio at highest cash level since 2008 (325B) - Shiller PE at 37.2, near 2022 peak of 38, Dot com bubble of 44 - FED announced fewer rate cuts in 2025 - Core PCE at 2.8% and rising since June 2024, above 2% FED target - Inverted Yield Curve is no longer inverted as of Sep 2024, the longest (793 days) and deepest inversion in history. All previous sustained inverted yield curves (8 Total since 1960) except 1 were followed by a recession within 6-12 months once the yield curve was no longer inverted. Economic Data: - Next significant economic data is ADP employment report Wed Jan 8th and Unemployment Rate Fri Jan 10th - A lower or higher employment figure than forecast could move the market and is a potential risk to the short position. However, I went back and reviewed previous employment reports and market movements, and basically whatever the trend the market was in at the time of publication, it continued to move in, so I'm not overly concerned. - Next week PPI and CPI will be published on Tues Jan 14th and Wed Jan 15th respectively. These are both potential movers if they were to come in lower/higher, as it may impact the % chance of FED cuts. - Trump inauguration on Monday Jan 20th, also falling on Martin Luther King Day (Markets Closed). I would anticipate potential positive market reaction following his inauguration given the pro-business policies and potential rally, so this is a risk. Overall: If you've watched the video, you can see that the chart patterns historically match up very well to the current. Again, history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. There's no sure thing in this business, however, considering all the factors, I find this to be a solid technical and fundamental trade and given the dominos fall in line I will be taking a position. Current Position: I currently have not taken a position on this trade. I am waiting for the QQE Short signal as mentioned in the video, or any other relevant move to give me the green light. However, here's what I'm looking for if all goes to plan...I will update in the notes if/when I take a position. SPXS Call Options Strike $6.00 Expiration Jan 24th, based on the estimated timeframe mentioned in the video Option Price: Ideally .20-.30 Options: 50-100 depending on my confidence in the chart and price above Stop: 1/2 my entry price Target: Given SPXS is 3x Bear the S&P...I estimate the first target range is $6.75-$6.90 which would be reaching the previous ATH of S&P of 5675 Option Price Est. $.85-$1.00 Approx: 3:1 - 5:1 Profit Loss Ratio The full target range would be between $7.00-$7.25 which would be reaching the H&S Target 5630 or 200 Day Moving Average 5577 Option Price Est. $1.00-$1.50 Approx. 3.3:1 - 7.5:1 Profit Loss Ratio
A bullish trend on SUI could occur if the price breaks above **5.1690** (resistance), moving averages (MA7, MA25, MA99) align upward, RSI climbs above **50**, and trading volume increases during price rises. Key support to watch is **5.0442**; staying above it shows buyers' strength.
SPY Price Projection and Option Strategy Current Market Overview Current Pre-Market Price: US$596.39 Last Close Price: US$595.36 Technical Analysis: The technical indicators for SPY suggest a cautiously bullish outlook. The breakout from the Falling Wedge pattern indicates a potential upward movement towards the resistance level at US$594.22. Oscillators show a bullish sentiment, while moving averages present mixed signals with short-term averages indicating a sell and longer-term averages showing some bullish potential. Option Expiry Dates for This Week 07-Jan-2025 08-Jan-2025 09-Jan-2025 10-Jan-2025 Option Chain Metrics Put-Call Ratio: 0.56 (for 28-Feb-2025 expiry) Max Pain: US$525.00 Highest Call Open Interest (OI) Strike: US$635.00 Highest Put Open Interest (OI) Strike: US$480.00 Recommended Option Strategy for a 50% Gain Given the cautiously bullish outlook and the current market structure, here are some single-leg option contracts expiring this week that could potentially yield a 50% gain: Long Call Option Stock Symbol: SPY Signal: Bullish Option Strategy: Long Call Strike Price: US$600.00 Expiry Date: 07-Jan-2025 Current Price: US$596.39 Buy/Sell: Buy Call/Put: Call Premium: US$0.28 Stop loss: US$0.25 Take profit: US$0.42 (50% gain target) Implied Volatility: 13% Rationale: The option is out-of-the-money (OTM) with a bullish signal, aligning with the cautiously bullish market outlook. Long Call Option Stock Symbol: SPY Signal: Bullish Option Strategy: Long Call Strike Price: US$602.00 Expiry Date: 10-Jan-2025 Current Price: US$596.39 Buy/Sell: Buy Call/Put: Call Premium: US$1.00 Stop loss: US$0.90 Take profit: US$1.50 (50% gain target) Implied Volatility: 13% Rationale: This option is also OTM with a bullish signal, and the premium is positioned for a potential 50% gain if the market moves favorably.
The overnight push up was shaped as abearish ascending flag Watch the 50% retracement of the Monday decline = 6,036.25 Remember, 6,032.25 is the Weekly resistance Bears have a setup to drive ES down to 5,987 with possible extension down to 5,972 I would not be surprised to see first a fake breakout of that flag tagging 6,036, the 50% retracement then brutal bearish reversal followed by a break under the lower blue trend line A failed breakout is the best trigger / catalyst of a bearish leg to a lower low The key level of support for this morning is 6,007
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rYHikdoK/ The price of EURUSD will most likely collapse soon enough, due to the supply beginning to exceed demand which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
High Demand for Advanced Chips: TSMC is at the forefront of producing chips for AI, 5G, and IoT applications. The increasing demand for these technologies, especially AI chips which power both consumer and enterprise solutions, could drive revenue growth. Posts on X and web results show TSMC's Q3 2024 earnings were significantly up year-over-year due to AI demand, suggesting a strong trajectory for chip sales. Technological Leadership: TSMC's ability to manufacture chips at smaller process nodes (like 3nm and the upcoming 2nm) gives it a competitive edge over rivals. The company's advancements in semiconductor technology are critical for producing high-performance, energy-efficient chips. Web results discuss the introduction of 2nm chips in 2025, which could further solidify TSMC's market position and justify a higher stock valuation. Customer Base and Market Share: TSMC services major tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, and AMD, giving it a stable and growing customer base. Its dominance in the foundry market (over 50% market share) means it's integral to the success of many tech products. The company's partnerships, particularly with Nvidia for AI chips, as noted in posts on X, could significantly boost its revenue. Geopolitical Strategy: While there are risks associated with Taiwan's geopolitical situation, TSMC's strategy of diversifying its manufacturing base (e.g., expanding in the U.S., Japan, and Europe) mitigates some of these risks. This expansion could tap into new markets and reduce dependency on its facilities in Taiwan, potentially stabilizing or even increasing investor confidence. Financial Performance: TSMC has demonstrated strong financial health with consistent revenue growth, impressive profit margins, and substantial free cash flow. According to web results, TSMC's revenue growth rate could reach 20%-25% in 2025, with a gross margin potentially peaking at 50%, which could positively impact its stock price. Investment in R&D and Capacity Expansion: TSMC's commitment to R&D ensures it remains at the cutting edge of semiconductor technology. The company's plans for capacity expansion, particularly in advanced processes, are designed to meet the growing demand. The increased capacity for CoWoS packaging, as mentioned in posts on X, is expected to address the robust demand driven by AI. Analyst Forecasts and Market Sentiment: Analysts have been bullish on TSMC, with some predicting that the stock could hit high targets due to its pivotal role in tech supply chains. Web results from financial analysts and stock forecast sites suggest positive sentiment, with some projecting the stock to reach or exceed $246 by 2025 based on current trends and forecasts. Long-term Growth Prospects: The semiconductor industry is expected to grow due to the proliferation of connected devices, data centers, and the automotive sector moving towards more electrification and automation. TSMC's position in this landscape suggests long-term growth, which could drive its stock price higher.
Import costs and currency fluctuations - Differences in currency exchange rates and higher import costs have contributed to rising gold prices in other regions. Local taxes, market conditions, and logistical challenges also add to the disparity between Indian and global rates.
NASDAQ:AAOI is forming a bullish pennant. Here are my thoughts on a setup. Buy-in Target: Conservative - $39.50 after confirmation that a breakout is happening - My signal is when the stock closes above $39.50 with relatively higher volume. Higher Risk/Reward - Purchase now (~$34) and set a stop loss at a point where it looks like the pennant is breaking down (~$32). This can be tricky because I've seen pennant patterns mutate into flag patterns (go from triangular to rectangular). If that happens they you'd want your stop set at ~$28. Price Target: $69.34 - I'd probably start a trailing stop quote (%) around $66 with a 5% threshold. Doing this allows the stock to continue to climb, but gives you a stop if momentum starts to collapse.