We’re entering a short swing on Tesla as it has broken below the 20MA with a strong bearish candlestick. It also broke through my support level, turning it into a new resistance zone. My target is a small profit near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. I will continue monitoring how the price reacts to the Fib levels and our resistance zone, as Tesla remains in a strong uptrend based on the 200MA.
In the ever-volatile world of trading, confidence is a trader’s most valuable asset. However, confidence isn’t about bravado; it’s built on understanding the market’s broader narrative, recognizing manipulation, and adhering to a disciplined plan. Ill try to explore the keys to confident trading by leveraging higher timeframes, understanding candlestick patterns, and exploiting market inefficiencies. The Importance of Higher Timeframe Narrative One of the most fundamental aspects of confident trading is aligning your trades with the direction indicated by higher timeframes—daily, weekly, and monthly charts. These timeframes provide a macro perspective of the market’s overall trend, filtering out the noise of intraday price action, which is often volatile and misleading. Intraday moves, while tempting, can cause traders to act impulsively. Without the context of the broader trend, these short-term fluctuations frequently result in losses. By staying aligned with higher timeframes, traders can avoid these pitfalls and make informed decisions rooted in the market’s overarching direction. Candle Formation and Market Manipulation Beyond signaling potential price movements, candles formation reveal how markets manipulate traders. A common manipulation tactic involves candles opening with a move against the overall trend, inducing traders to take positions on the wrong side before the market reverses direction. For example, monthly candles often open with an initial move that creates a false sense of direction. During the first week or two, the price may appear bearish, enticing traders to short the market. However, this move typically serves as an accumulation phase for long positions, setting the stage for a strong upward move that forms the candle’s wick. I saw so often when M candle open and in next week form manipulation like crazy bullish or crazy bearish direction! but at the end of month we close candle absolutely in another direction) Identifying and Exploiting Market Inefficiencies Successful traders know how to identify and leverage market inefficiencies. These include concepts such as: Fair Value Gaps: Price imbalances that often get filled, presenting potential trade opportunities. Order Blocks: Zones where significant buying or selling activity occurred, marking areas of interest for future price action. Liquidity Runs: Movements designed to trigger stop-losses or lure traders into positions, creating opportunities for savvy traders. These inefficiencies often reveal the footprints of “Smart Money,” the institutional players whose actions drive the market. By understanding these concepts, traders can anticipate high-probability setups and align their strategies with the broader market narrative. Discipline Through a Defined Trading Plan Confidence in trading isn’t just about market knowledge; it’s about discipline. A well-defined trading plan grounded in a higher timeframe bias is essential for consistent success. This plan should guide every decision, ensuring that intraday fluctuations don’t provoke emotional or impulsive trades. Traders must resist the urge to deviate from their plan unless new information invalidates their higher timeframe analysis. By sticking to their strategy, traders build confidence and consistency in their approach. The “Judas Swing” and Smart Money Footprints A recurring theme in market manipulation is the “Judas Swing,” an initial move against the trend designed to mislead traders. Recognizing these swings can save traders from falling into traps set by “Smart Money.” Institutional players often position themselves within the wicks of candles, accumulating or distributing positions before driving the market in their desired direction. By identifying these footprints, traders can align their actions with the market’s true intent rather than its deceptive moves Mastering the art of confident trading requires more than technical analysis or market knowledge. It demands a disciplined approach rooted in higher timeframe narratives, an understanding of market manipulation, and the ability to exploit inefficiencies. By following a well-defined trading plan and aligning with the broader market direction, traders can increase their chances of long-term success. Remember, confidence in trading isn’t about always being right. It’s about having a plan, sticking to it, and learning from the market’s movements. By adopting these principles, you can trade with clarity, precision, and resilience in the face of market volatility. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
I think my last post is incorrect now that I have taken a wider step back. I still believe it is in a wide range but I was able to expand the range down into 40,000 as a more likely bottom of the range. The range I was expecting was too small. The much larger range lines up with yearly ATR. The weekly and daily charts are showing more downside potential and 2025 is expected to open right in the middle of the range, right where 2024 closed. I don't expect the high to break in the entirety of the next year but in 2026. Price needs to consolidate before it starts on the next leg to 69,000. In the immediate, I see price popping above the declining daily 20sma before the next leg down. Down to take out lows of September and down to 40,000.
Analysis and Price Projections for 2025 (3-to-5-Month Outlook) Below is my analysis for each chart with a focus on Elliott Wave patterns, Fibonacci levels, and potential buy-the-dip opportunities. Meta Platforms Inc. (META) Current Price: $585.51 Key Levels: Resistance: $716.05 (0.618 Fibonacci extension). Support: $526.45 (50% retracement), $500.00 (61.8% retracement). Outlook: META is likely in a corrective phase after completing Wave 5. A pullback to $526.45 or $500.00 could provide attractive entry points. Projection: META may recover to test the $650-$700 range by late Q2 2025. The degree of that Impulse Wave will determine if we end the within 2024 range or we breakout more towards $750 or $800 in 2025.
When AMEX:SPY and CRYPTOCAP:BTC put up #HeadNShoulder Patterns I listen and risk off. How about yall? I'm Short AMEX:SPY already, might short NASDAQ:IBIT at open tomorrow if we start to crack. 1/17 or 1/31 Strikes #TBD Am I seeing things or I this as clear as it looks to y'all too? Investopedia link; https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/121201.asp BOOOOOOM -ProbablysBearish
Ethereum looks stable and poised to move higher. Get ready.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS - Looks like a possibility that a 3 wave correction may be completed. Price action is showing signs of a potential pop, breaking out of the demand line. If we can close above the demand line, this is a bullish clue. We did hit retracement down to the 0.5 on the 20th of December, touching the 1:1.272 window. The 0.5 is considered a bullish ratio. HOWEVER: On a larger time frame; this could be a trip towards the second wave, with another dump down to a 3rd wave, too early to tell. Historically, 30-ish % pull backs are common during this phase of the cycle. Being that income tax season is upon us here in the great U.S., this could have a positive effect on the market. Good luck traders, it is the year of the Bull Run! Apply all of your strategies learned in 2024 and lets make this our most prosperous year yet! -Not financial advice-
Analysis and Price Projections for 2025 (3-to-5-Month Outlook) Below is my analysis for each chart with a focus on Elliott Wave patterns, Fibonacci levels, and potential buy-the-dip opportunities. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) Current Price: $219.39 Key Levels: Resistance: $233.00 (Wave 5 peak). Support: $175.10 (38.2% retracement), $157.22 (50% retracement). Outlook: AMZN has likely completed Wave 5 and is in an ABC correction. Key levels to watch are $175.10 and $157.22 as buy-the-dip zones. Projection: A bounce from these levels could see AMZN trading back towards $200-$220 in the next 3-5 months and maybe $250.00 by year end.
Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is still rather bullish: https://www.tradingview.com/x/J4HXXwyE/ Click chart above to see the detailed analysis?? In December of 2024, we saw a little pause during the overall bullish crypto bullrun, which was actually quite expected after the recent rally of about +500%. This could still turn into a false breakout, but since everything looks rather bullish, new all time highs are much more likely. Levels to watch: $70.000, $300.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
? FinCaesar’s Commands: ? Resistance: 0.3443 Breaking above this level signals strong bullish momentum, targeting 0.3945 and potentially extending beyond to 0.4500. ? Support: 0.3106 Failure to hold this level indicates weakness, with downside targets at 0.2887 and further to 0.2287. ? FinCaesar’s Strategy: ? Buy: Above 0.3443, aiming for 0.3945, and extending the rally to 0.4500 or higher. ? Sell: Below 0.3106, targeting 0.2887 initially, with potential drops toward 0.2287 as the next key level. ? "Greatness belongs to those who act decisively and seize opportunities." — FinCaesar