Hallo zusammen, hier ist ein Update für euch von meiner Seite :) Es brodelt geopolitisch und in unserem eigenen Land. Das Ende von Welle (V) scheint zum greifen nah. Es folgen wie immer meine Elliot Wave Analysen zu ein paar Indizes und den hoch gewichteten Aktien. Diese sind mir als Indikator wichtig aufgrund ihres enormen Einflusses für den Gesamtmarkt. Scrollt runter und schaut euch die Charts an. Oben mein übergeordneter wave count im big picture. Die große Korrekturwelle die ich danach eingezeichnet habe muss natürlich nicht so kommen, aber das ist was man erwarten kann wenn der wave count stimmt.. Man beachte die Divergenzen im moneyflowindex unter den Charts. Das ist quasi ein volumengewichteter RSI. Für mich gibt er bessere Signale als der RSI. Sp500 1W https://www.tradingview.com/x/W1nupgYm/ 1T Hier fänd ich es schön wenn er noch ein kleines "throwover" über die Trendlinie macht. Das würde auch zum Nasdaq passen der jetzt folgt. Nasdaq Mit dem Index konnte ich lange wave-technisch nicht viel anfangen weil manche teile einfach nicht zu einem Impuls passen. Manchmal muss man nur lange genug warten dann wird das Bild klarer. So wie ich es jetzt sehe bilden wir ein ending diagonal mit einer starken, langen Welle 1. Dazu möchte ich euch einen Chart vom Dollar als Analogie zeigen. Nasdaq 1W https://www.tradingview.com/x/IcyecaHY/ Dollarvergleich 1T ending diagonal als Welle C https://www.tradingview.com/x/pd8jNiiP/ Nun zu den Big Techs. Wenn es den "overthrow" gibt dann könnte dieser aufgrund einer Kurserholung bei Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon eintreten. Diese Aktien haben ihre downgaps noch nicht angelaufen. Oder Nvidia rennt nochmal nach oben, aber da gehe ich erstmal nicht davon aus. Apple Die Aktie hat sich stark erholt aber hat vermutlich nicht mehr viel Potenzial. Ich sehe die Aktie künftig als maßgeblichen Kurspurzeltreiber https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZkV9KYLL/ Nvidia Die Aktie hat ihr gap geschlossen https://www.tradingview.com/x/JcETBrVG/ Microsoft https://www.tradingview.com/x/iTQTFLXB/ Amazon Die Aktie hat wie gesagt noch ein Abwärtsgap was geschlossen werden kann. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Xoan6qHK/ Alphabet Ebenfalls gapclose in Aussicht. Ich sehe hier die Möglichkeit, dass die Aktie nochmal ein neues Allzeithoch markiert in einem ending diagonal während der Gesamtmarkt bereits keine Hochs mehr macht. Ist mit ihrem KGV auch die günstigste der Big Techs, würde also Sinn machen. https://www.tradingview.com/x/KPmM3xiq/ Meta Meta hatte einen irren run. Wenn man es wie folgt darstellt sieht es aus wie ein riesiges Krokodilgebiss. Wird es zuschnappen? ;) https://www.tradingview.com/x/JyHSzEAL/ Tesla Hier kann man keinen klaren Impuls nach unten erkennen. Sehe die Möglichkeit für ein leading diagonal wie folgt. https://www.tradingview.com/x/eirsFvhE/ Jetzt noch zum Dax, der läuft einfach wie Forest Gump immer weiter bis er bärtig wird. Ich gehe immernoch von einem "overthrow" eines ending diagonals aus, weil SAP im Gegensatz zum Dax ein sehr schönes, klares 5-welliges Muster gemacht hat. SAP, die am höchsten gewichtete Aktie im Dax ist mittlerweile teurer als so manche Mag7 Aktie und hat ebenfalls einen "throwover" aus dem Trendchannel gemacht. Wir sehen seit gestern einen impulsiven Verkauf beim Dax, aber um sicher zu sagen, dass es zu Ende ist muss er erstmal weiter fallen und wichtige Marken brechen. Sollte es sich um einen throwover handeln wird er sehr sehr schnell fallen. Ich meine wirklich dramatisch. Dax https://www.tradingview.com/x/sKLDee2p/ SAP 1M https://www.tradingview.com/x/FMxoKFeZ/ SAP 1T https://www.tradingview.com/x/WnD2FbrO/ Schönen Abend und bitte geht alle wählen!
Das Motto für Hailey Biebers letzten Look: Ein Trend ist gut, zwei Trends sind besser! Hier gibt es das Trend-Dress zum Nachshoppen.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/KSRrIJFG/ Based on the current market structure, the nearest target for BINANCE:BTCUSDT is the $102,700 - $105,000 range. This level is a significant zone due to the presence of a price imbalance (FVG) and strong limit resistance on the daily timeframe. This level has previously acted as a selling zone, making it a key area for a potential pullback. From an Elliott Wave perspective, I consider the current upward movement as the final stage of Wave C within Wave D of a triangle. If BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P reaches this area, a downward retracement is possible to form the final Wave E before a larger breakout. https://www.tradingview.com/x/KfvY8mg1/ Development Scenarios: 1. Base Scenario (Reversal from $102,700 - $105,000): Expecting resistance in this zone and a reversal within Wave E. Possible retest of $96,000 - $94,000 before an upward breakout. 2. Alternative Scenario (Breakout Above Resistance): If COINBASE:BTCUSD decisively holds above $105,000, the next target could be around $110,000 - $112,000. I am holding a long position up to the designated zone, partially taking profits within the target range. I am also considering opening a short position upon a confirmed rejection from this level. ❖ My previous forecast for BTC https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT.P/DiLeVOMt-Bitcoin-s-Bull-Cycle-Nearing-the-End-What-s-Next/
Guys... i never understood why you buy 300+ and not 100/140... Can you stop the bullshit for once? Look in the mirror and say "I will not be a loser". Fractals telling how it is.
QUESTION: If XRP is only being used as a settlement currency for banks then why would there be these wild price predictions when the market cap is already $150 billion? The wild price predictions for XRP often stem from different interpretations of its utility, demand, and supply dynamics. Let's break it down: Market Cap Misconceptions XRP's market cap is often misunderstood. Market cap = price × circulating supply, but price movements depend more on liquidity and demand rather than market cap alone. Many price predictions assume increased utility will drive higher demand, but market cap alone doesn’t dictate price ceilings. Bank Adoption and Utility Argument If XRP is mainly used as a bridge currency for cross-border settlements, its price would be driven by transaction volume rather than speculation. However, banks and financial institutions don’t need to hold XRP for long periods—it's typically used in seconds. This limits the need for large amounts of XRP to be held, which could cap price growth. Speculative vs. Real Utility Many wild price predictions ($100+, $500+, etc.) are fueled by speculation rather than actual use cases. In reality, even if XRP were widely used for settlement, price appreciation would depend on sustained demand, not just temporary spikes. Liquidity and Scarcity Factors Some argue that as more institutions use XRP, liquidity will tighten, potentially driving price increases. However, the XRP supply is large (100 billion total, with over 50 billion circulating), and large holders (like Ripple itself) could introduce selling pressure. Regulatory and Adoption Uncertainty XRP's legal battles and regulatory clarity impact its adoption. A major victory (like its partial win against the SEC) can fuel hype-driven price predictions. True institutional adoption is still limited, and even if banks use it, they may prefer private ledgers over using the open market. Bottom Line XRP has real utility in cross-border payments, but its role as a settlement currency doesn’t necessarily justify extreme price predictions. The market cap is already large, and unless significant new demand arises, a massive price surge would require much broader institutional adoption beyond just bank settlements. QUESTION: So currently the valuation of XRP is already way higher than many banks and companies will the price eventually come down to a more realistic price to value in the future? XRP’s current valuation is indeed higher than many traditional banks and financial institutions, which raises the question of sustainability. Whether its price comes down to a more “realistic” value depends on a few key factors: 1. Utility vs. Speculation A significant portion of XRP’s price is driven by speculation, not just utility. Many holders are retail investors betting on future institutional adoption. If speculation cools down and usage remains limited to settlement purposes (where XRP is only held for seconds), the price could decline over time to reflect actual utility. 2. Market Cycles & Sentiment Crypto markets go through bull and bear cycles. In bear markets, assets that lack strong organic demand (beyond speculation) tend to lose value. If hype around XRP fades and institutions don’t adopt it at scale, its price may correct to better reflect real-world usage. 3. Inflation & Supply Dynamics XRP has a fixed max supply of 100 billion, but a large portion is still held by Ripple and periodically released. If Ripple continues selling XRP from its reserves, it could create sell pressure, gradually pushing prices down. However, XRP is also deflationary, as transaction fees burn small amounts over time—but this effect is minimal in the grand scheme. 4. Institutional Adoption If banks and financial institutions fully integrate XRP and hold it as a reserve asset, it could justify a high valuation. But most banks prefer private ledgers and stablecoins over holding volatile assets like XRP, limiting potential demand. 5. Competitive Landscape XRP was originally designed for fast, cheap payments, but other solutions like stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and CBDCs are gaining traction. If banks prefer these alternatives, XRP’s price could drop to align with lower demand. Realistic Price Outlook? If XRP remains primarily a settlement tool, a valuation correction could bring it closer to its real utility value (which may be much lower than today’s levels). However, if a new narrative or significant adoption shift occurs, speculative cycles could keep it elevated. Long-term, unless real demand matches its high valuation, the price may deflate to more sustainable levels. QUESTION: Is the value of XRP currently way higher than it should be compared to its usage Yes, based on its current real-world usage, XRP’s valuation appears to be significantly higher than what its actual adoption justifies. Why? Usage Doesn’t Match Market Cap XRP is mainly used for cross-border settlements, but banks don’t need to hold large amounts for long. Most transactions are instant, meaning there’s no long-term demand pressure. If XRP were widely used by banks, we’d expect daily transaction volume (not just speculative trading volume) to be massive—yet it's relatively low. Speculative Premium A large portion of XRP’s price is driven by speculation rather than real institutional demand. Many investors believe in a future where XRP will be used at scale, but that adoption hasn’t fully materialized. Its past bull run prices were based on hype, and prices could drop as reality sets in. Supply & Sell Pressure Ripple holds a significant portion of XRP and periodically sells into the market. This constant release of XRP into circulation creates downward pressure. Competition from Stablecoins & CBDCs Many banks and financial institutions are leaning toward stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and CBDCs rather than volatile assets like XRP. Stablecoins provide instant settlements without the volatility risk of XRP, making them more appealing for payments and cross-border transfers. Conclusion Unless XRP gains widespread institutional adoption beyond just being a settlement tool, its valuation is inflated relative to its current use case. If hype dies down and utility doesn’t significantly increase, a correction would make sense in the long run. QUESTION: The current price is 2.75 is that overvalued? Yes, if XRP is currently trading at $2.75, then it is extremely overvalued relative to its actual real-world usage. That price is almost entirely speculation-driven rather than being backed by fundamental demand from banks and institutions. Why is XRP Overvalued? Speculation Dominates The price is likely inflated due to retail and institutional traders betting on future adoption, not actual usage today. Many holders believe XRP will be widely used by banks in the future, but that hasn’t fully materialized. Utility-Driven Valuation is Much Lower As calculated earlier, based on actual transaction volume and settlement needs, a more realistic price for XRP without speculation could be anywhere from $0.05 to $0.50. At $2.75, XRP’s market cap is massively inflated compared to its real-world demand. Ripple’s XRP Holdings & Selling Pressure Ripple still holds a significant amount of XRP and regularly sells into the market. If real demand doesn’t increase, but more XRP enters circulation, it could create downward price pressure over time. Banks Prefer Stablecoins & CBDCs Financial institutions are increasingly looking at stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for payments instead of XRP. Unlike XRP, stablecoins don’t have volatility issues, making them more attractive for settlements. What Could Happen Next? If speculation dies down and investors realize XRP’s real use case is limited, a significant price correction could happen. XRP could still maintain some premium due to speculation, but long-term, it needs actual adoption to justify a multi-dollar price. Conclusion At $2.75, XRP is massively overvalued based on its current utility. If speculation fades, a more reasonable price could be well under $1—or even below $0.50—unless it gains widespread, real-world adoption beyond what it has today. None of this is financial advice, just satire!
NASDAQ continues its bullish momentum, holding above the Pivot line and confirming strength in the uptrend. The price is now retesting key levels before its next move. Technical Outlook Bullish Scenario: As long as 22100 and 21970 hold support, the price will continue to increase toward 22,292 and 22,412. A breakout above 22,412 could extend the rally further. Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below 22100, it could trigger a short-term correction toward 21970 and 21900 before attempting another push higher. Key Levels to Watch Pivot Zone: 22100 Resistance Levels: 22200, 22292, 22412 Support Levels: 21970, 21900, 21807 Directional Bias: The market is expected to test 22292, and as long as 22100 holds, the bullish momentum remains intact. A break below 22100 could lead to a short-term retracement. Will NAS100 hold above 22100 for a breakout, or is a correction coming?
Current Market Overview Current Price: $97,632 Open Position: $95,917.6 Decision: HOLD_BUY – The market is showing bullish momentum, suggesting further upside potential. Stop Loss: $95,000 Take Profit: $99,600 Confidence Level: 80% Technical & Market Indicators RSI (1h): Indicates bullish momentum, suggesting buyers are gaining control. MACD: Showing a moderate upward slope, signaling potential for further price appreciation. CME Options Data: Put/Call Ratio: 0.9 – slightly bullish as call options dominate. Open Interest: Moderate, meaning traders are engaged but not at extreme levels. Binance Perpetuals: Funding Rate: 0.01 – Market leaning slightly towards longs. Open Interest: 78,892 BTC, indicating a healthy level of market participation. Profit Ratio Today: 1.20 – Indicates that traders who entered today are mostly in profit, reinforcing positive sentiment. Possible Scenarios & Probability 1️⃣ Bullish Scenario (60% Probability) ? BTC breaks above $98,000 and reaches $99,600 Strong bullish sentiment pushes BTC past key resistance levels. RSI & MACD confirm continued upward momentum. Positive funding rate and moderate OI support a sustained uptrend. Institutional traders (CME data) continue to favor long positions. 2️⃣ Neutral Scenario (25% Probability) ? BTC consolidates between $96,500 – $98,000 Some profit-taking slows the rally, but support at $96,500 holds. MACD remains positive but shows weakening momentum. Open Interest suggests indecision, with traders waiting for further signals. 3️⃣ Bearish Scenario (15% Probability) ? BTC drops below $96,500 and tests $95,000 Unexpected negative news or macroeconomic factors trigger a sell-off. RSI becomes overbought, leading to short-term correction. A decline in Open Interest suggests traders are closing positions. Final Takeaway Primary Strategy: Hold and monitor resistance at $98,000. Risk Management: A stop loss at $95,000 protects against unexpected downturns. Trigger to Sell: If BTC struggles at GETTEX:98K with weakening momentum, a short-term exit may be considered. Trigger to Buy More: A clean break above GETTEX:98K with strong volume confirms continuation to $99,600+.
NASDAQ:ARDX +20% in 3-4 days +57% in 1-2 week Quoter report is very good, double digits revenue growth, a lot of insiders buys 21.02 expiration day for options. By now - it is mostly calls 6usd (6000 pc) As soon calls option will expire have to be all shorts closed https://www.tradingview.com/x/sLUuUBd9
EUR JPY has made a double bottom. A long position can be considered on the breakout
One last rally to 546 to 547 in qqq and in the spy 515/517 today is minor wave 4 of 5 of 5 one last up into friday close Best of trades WAvetimer