Se aproximan tiempos de crisis para USA y el dolar. Los toros toman fuerza
Looking at a bearish continuation from the h1 and H4 FVG. Trend cycle is still bearish on the LTF
One more from me tonight, friends, I keep staring at this chart which plots (the scatter-like print) ST rates vs. S&P earnings yield and also shows the S&P adjusted by M2 (purple). I believe one or the other is likely true. 1/ we're in the middle of a mega bull run that began in '09 and never really ended, given low rates, tons of tech-led innovation (with cash flows) and the current correction is a pause (similar to the GREEN ARROW in '98) before continuing much higher and with rates remaining high and potentially even headed incrementally higher as stocks climb the wall of worry. 2/ we're undergoing a WTF growth scare, a geopol reordering, inability to look through for many months (or even a year) and causing such a financial meltdown that rates will be forced to head back to zero and stocks maybe undergo another 20-30% lower (the FROWNY FACES). My guess is it's #1. - the current spat is Trump-induced. - it's not a meltdown of credit markets (well... yet...) - there's not a fake _____ (event of any sort) causing freak out - and also... unlike dotcom, which ran HARD, we've had some pullbacks along the way in this recent multi-year run, testing the thesis... notably mar '20 and end '22. these tech leaders are v cash generative and there's a good reason to believe they'll continue to gain strength all this would translate into a massive run into '28, if #1 is correct. so now that we're in pure correlation 1, margin call territory etc. etc. we have the "can't look through, need help or some resolution event" so once that resolution comes. we probably boot, rally, retest. and rip. hard to do this on leverage b/c V might not be the shape of recovery (at least that's not how i'd play it, i still prefer to use deep ITM LEAPS for some flex) but let's see. this chart has my attention once again. V
See the wave structure and my counts and where I place the stop loss. Good luck!
This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research. Listen, the US has survived the depression of WWI, the Great Depression, the depression of WWII, oil shocks, the dot com bubble, the GFC, the COVID-sell off. It’ll likely survive this. In the scope of history, that $1 survived very well indeed. Panicking and running for the hills does not do so well. Winston Churchill was a great and flawed man but a terrible investor; he bought and sold shares prior to the 1929 crash in such speculative investments as mining companies, railways, and so on — most of them lost money (hence why Churchill continued to write at such a pace — to fund his Champagne-and-spec stock lifestyle). Hetty Green, on the other hand, (known as the “Queen of Wall Street”, managed to do very well her time — her quote? I buy when things are low and no one wants them. I keep them until they go up, and people are crazy to get them. Now, that’s something I can get behind. Nobody wanted Meta a few years ago. I wrote an internal memo, close to its plummet in ‘22 (it got to $99 or so a share!). I wrote this: ii) Yet what if we were to tell about about a company with this set of heuristics? Let’s call it “Company A” Company A has a 31% return on equity and a 20% return on capital. It has a net income margin of 37% and a FCF margin of 21% Its income has a compounded annual growth rate over the last 5 years of 41% If we add in numbers, now, let’s say the net income for 2020 was $29 billion, and $10 billion of that was used to repurchase stock from shareholders? Let’s say the unlevered FCF is around $6 billion per quarter, and let’s say the debt to equity ratio is about 9x. In other words, Company A is grows at a quick clip, and has done sustainably for the majority of its life. Its return on capital and return on equity would make any investor happy. Its FCF is an absolute machine. Would you buy Company A? Company A was Meta . You would’ve roughly made 4x or 5x’d your money if you’d bought around then. The point is, the fundamentals of a business matter, and right now there a quite a few exceptional businesses with good fundamentals trading at a good price. Alphabet (Google) trades at ~16x earnings. LVMH trades at ~18x earnings. And so on. Brown-Forman trades at ~15x earnings. These are all “inevitables” — Google will continue to be a dominant advertising platform, LVMH will continue to sell luxury, and Brown-Forman will continue to sell Jack Daniel’s and so on. I talked to my ma in the weekend. She is not really a share person. Her portfolio is a bunch of “inevitables”. It’s done very well. She said “aren’t you worried about this stock market?”, and I said “You love supermarket shopping, Mum. If you see something at a 25% discount you buy it. You come home, and you’re delighted that you found some mince on special²” She was like, “oh, that makes sense”. The problem is you have a lot of people looking at charts and catching worry that the world will end. The world, I am delighted to say, has a magnificent disposition to carry on.
? ? ? Asset: Hyperfine, Inc. (HYPR – NASDAQ) ? Timeframe: 30-Min Chart ? Setup Type: Bear Flag Breakdown + Retest Rejection ? Trade Plan (Short Position) ✅ Entry Zone: Below $0.60 (Confirmed breakdown of wedge support) ✅ Stop-Loss (SL): Above $0.6541 (horizontal resistance + wedge trendline) ? Take Profit Targets: ? TP1: $0.5356 (minor support zone) ? TP2: $0.5000 (psychological round number) ? TP3: $0.4677 (previous structure) ? TP4: $0.4170 (major support level, yellow line) ? Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation ? Risk (SL Distance): $0.6541 - $0.60 = $0.0541 risk per share ? Reward to TP2: $0.60 - $0.50 = $0.10 → R/R = 1:1.85 ? Reward to TP4: $0.60 - $0.4170 = $0.183 → R/R = 1:3.38 ? Technical Analysis & Strategy ? Falling Wedge Pattern: Broken to downside ? Retest Rejection: Price retested wedge but failed to break back above ? Bearish Momentum: No volume surge on bounce; sellers in control ? Clean Downtrend: Lower highs, lower lows confirm continuation ? Trade Execution & Risk Management ? Entry Confirmation: Weak price action & rejection below $0.60 ? Trailing Stop Strategy: Move SL to breakeven after TP1 ? Partial Profit Booking: ✔ 50% profits at TP2 ($0.50) ✔ Let rest ride toward TP4 ✔ Adjust SL to entry after TP1 ⚠️ Setup Invalidation ❌ Price closes above $0.6541 ❌ Strong bullish candle with high volume ❌ Reclaims broken wedge support ? Final Thoughts ✔ Clear bearish pattern with strong R/R setup ✔ Good opportunity for short-biased momentum traders ✔ Stick to the plan. Let the chart guide the trade. ? #HYPR #BearishSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #ProfittoPath #ChartBreakdown #StockTrading #ShortTrade #RisktoReward #WedgeBreakdown
We broke every important level on the downside today, so that leads me to believe that we have farther to fall. If I had to guess where we'd bottom, I think the most likely level is the 50% retracement of the covid lows which sits at $4178. Let's see if it gets hit in the coming days or weeks.
Looking at this chart I can see a clear trajectory to 68k, though bulls may end up staving off that price until June when the Federal Reserve plans to meet and talk interest rates, which will most likely be lowered to stop the bleeding of the stock market. I predict, if they do, there may be a drop in BTC price right before the meeting so folks can get their discounted bitcoin. from https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/04/03/flood-the-market-major-fed-flip-predicted-to-blow-up-the-bitcoin-price/ Now, as the chief executive of BlackRock warns bitcoin could end the U.S. dollar’s world’s reserve currency status, traders are betting the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates to stave off a U.S. recession—something that could see the market “flooded” with dollars. BlackRock CEO Issues Huge $952 Billion Bitcoin Price Warning To The U.S. Dollar Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is having to recalculate the need for interest rate cuts after ... More U.S. president Donald Trump followed though on his threat of global trade tariffs—potentially playing havoc with the bitcoin price. Short-term interest-rate futures are showing a 70% chance of a Fed interest rate cut when it meets in June, up from about 60% before the tariffs were announced. That meeting is scheduled for June 17th and 18th. Shorting isn't a crazy idea for now, while hedging on short term upswings until we hit 68k.
BINANCE:BTCUSDT Bitcoin has made a 5 wave move to the downside, it is forming a bullish RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart, it already shown climatic volume on the recent bounce, seems like downside should be limited from here in the short to mid-term. Long term, the trend is still down. I expect a multi-week bounce from here, probably to the 50% retracement, around 92k, before continuing to move down to a deeper lower-low. Good luck to you
Based on the D1 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 36,516.88, a pullback support. Our take profit is set at 40,052.43, a pullback resistance. The stop loss is placed at 34,049.36, an overlap support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (https://tradu.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (https://tradu.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (https://tradu.com/en): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.