XAUUSD (Gold/USD) 1H chart shows market structure with key levels: Resistance: $2,908.24 Support: $2,881.45 Break of Structure (BOS): Signals trend shifts Possible Scenarios: Bullish: Break above $2,908.24 → More upside Bearish: Break below $2,881.45 → Drop to demand zone Upcoming U.S. economic events may impact price action .
In the short term, the H1 chart shows that the main trend is up. Prioritize buying according to the plan shared on the screen
Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 6.2/61.80% Chart time frame: D A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: B A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
In this idea I would like to walk you through some principles which I use to find and relate historical complexities within rhyming cycles. Market Reflexivity Market reflexivity is a concept introduced by George Soros that defies the traditional TA notion of efficient markets by revealing that price movements do not merely reflect fundamentals — they actively shape them. As prices rise, optimism fuels further buying, creating a self-reinforcing loop inflating bubbles. Conversely, declining prices trigger fear, accelerating downturns. Reflexivity explains why trends persist and why reversals can be abrupt, as self-sustaining cycles eventually reach a exhaustion point. To put it simply, there is a feedback loop between market participants’ perceptions and actual market conditions, suggesting that financial markets are not always in equilibrium because collective investor behavior actively drives price movements, which in turn influences future investor behavior. Feedback Loops Each massive rally eventually creates conditions that lead to overvaluation, resulting in sharp corrections. Self-Fulfilling Expectations Market participants, reacting to past price behavior, reinforce trends until a breaking point. Structural Adaptation Every major correction resets valuations, allowing for the next cycle to begin with renewed confidence and capital inflows. Practical Application of Reflexivity Compared to many tickers, SPX has exhibited relatively stable growth throughout history. Over the past 70 years, the most significant panic-driven decline occurred after its 2007 peak, with a 57% drop that defined a major cycle. Growth resumed in 2009, making this swing a key reference point for establishing historical relationships. I see the Dotcom and Housing crisis-induced declines as part of a broader complexity, shaped by prior long-term growth. The two cycles appear as they do because they stem from an extended structural uptrend, not just the 250% surge from 1994 to the bubble top, which lacked a significant preceding decline. Cause-and-effect logic suggests that these crashes were a reaction to a much larger uptrend that began in 1974. A 2447% rally provides a more compelling reason for mass panic and selling, as corrections of such magnitude are rare. https://www.tradingview.com/x/3b1yNlfq/ Intuitively, the 2447% long-term upswing should have been preceded by a decline similar to the Dotcom and Housing crashes. This holds true, as the market experienced a nearly 50% drop after peaking in 1973 and 37% in 1968, following the same cyclical pattern of deep corrections leading to extended expansions. These corrections were relatively smaller than the Dotcom and Housing crashes because they are followed by a comparatively smaller 1452% rally from the end of WWII. https://www.tradingview.com/x/XsToQWZ9/ Multi-Fractals Multifractals in market analysis describe the non-linear, self-similar nature of price movements, where volatility and risk vary across different scales. Unlike simple fractals with a constant fractal dimension, multifractals exhibit multiple fractal dimensions, creating varying levels of roughness. Benoit Mandelbrot introduced multifractal Time Series to refine the classic random walk theory, recognizing that price movements occur in bursts of volatility followed by calm periods. Instead of a single Hurst exponent, markets display a spectrum of exponents, reflecting diverse scaling behaviors and explaining why price action appears random at times but reveals structured patterns over different time horizons. This justifies viewing price action within its structural cause-and-effect framework, where micro and macro cycles are interdependent, while oscillating at different frequencies. Therefore, we will apply the building blocks independently from boundaries of Full Fractal Cycle. https://www.tradingview.com/x/NDiz7GQE/ Since volatility varies, this reserves us the right to extract patterns with identical slope and roughness, and by method of exclusion relate to recent cycles starting from covid.
Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 46.3/61.80% Chart time frame: B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: C A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
Monday: I let the charts trade me 12 trades within a couple of hours. Almost blew the account but was able to end the day only down Profitable Trades 41.67% blob:https://trader.tradovate.com/7550ffd7-02ed-4ba6-9d80-c02f352888ee Tuesday: I Traded the charts took my time entering after closing, and took profits when they were there. Got out of losers 50 ticks for the most part. Ended the day up Total P/L $2,170.24 Profitable Trades 57.14% 7 trades total. blob:https://trader.tradovate.com/7550ffd7-02ed-4ba6-9d80-c02f352888ee Combined: Total P/L $1,447.08 Win rate 47.37% blob:https://trader.tradovate.com/f37a4524-99ed-4fa7-86c4-9e4b9552dd7b
Absci Corporation I’m liking the look of this setup. Clear range broken at the lows and then the market perfectly retested the break away block. I’m expecting a move up to 12.6 minimum. The risk to reward ratio is 1:9.4 The probability of success is 40% Overall I rate this setup 7/10
Key Level Zone: 0.017160 - 0.017440 HMT v5 detected. The setup looks promising, supported by a previous upward/downward trend with increasing volume and momentum, presenting an excellent reward-to-risk opportunity. HMT (High Momentum Trending): HMT is based on trend, momentum, volume, and market structure across multiple timeframes. It highlights setups with strong potential for upward movement and higher rewards. Whenever I spot a signal for my own trading, I’ll share it. Please note that conducting a comprehensive analysis on a single timeframe chart can be quite challenging and sometimes confusing. I appreciate your understanding of the effort involved. Important Note : Role of Key Levels: - These zones are critical for analyzing price trends. If the key level zone holds, the price may continue trending in the expected direction. However, momentum may increase or decrease based on subsequent patterns. - Breakouts: If the key level zone breaks, it signals a stop-out. For reversal traders, this presents an opportunity to consider switching direction, as the price often retests these zones, which may act as strong support-turned-resistance (or vice versa). My Trading Rules Risk Management - Maximum risk per trade: 2.5%. - Leverage: 5x. Exit Strategy Profit-Taking: - Sell at least 70% on the 3rd wave up (LTF Wave 5). - Typically, sell 50% during a high-volume spike. - Adjust stop-loss to breakeven once the trade achieves a 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio. - If the market shows signs of losing momentum or divergence, ill will exit at breakeven. The market is highly dynamic and constantly changing. HMT signals and target profit (TP) levels are based on the current price and movement, but market conditions can shift instantly, so it is crucial to remain adaptable and follow the market's movement. If you find this signal/analysis meaningful, kindly like and share it. Thank you for your support~ Sharing this with love! HMT v2.0: - Major update to the Momentum indicator - Reduced false signals from inaccurate momentum detection - New screener with improved accuracy and fewer signals HMT v3.0: - Added liquidity factor to enhance trend continuation - Improved potential for momentum-based plays - Increased winning probability by reducing entries during peaks HMT v3.1: - Enhanced entry confirmation for improved reward-to-risk ratios HMT v4.0: - Incorporated buying and selling pressure in lower timeframes to enhance the probability of trending moves while optimizing entry timing and scaling HMT v4.1: - Enhanced take-profit (TP) target by incorporating market structure analysis HMT v5 : Date: 23/01/2025 - Refined wave analysis for trending conditions - Incorporated lower timeframe (LTF) momentum to strengthen trend reliability - Re-aligned and re-balanced entry conditions for improved accuracy
Bei Gold ist dieser Preisanstieg aufgrund der Risikoaversion seit Jahresbeginn langsam angestiegen und hat sich nach der Stabilisierung auf dem vorherigen Höchststand von 2790 beschleunigt; die Daten der letzten Woche außerhalb der Landwirtschaft fielen und durchbrachen dann zu Wochenbeginn aufgrund der Auswirkungen der Zollpolitik erneut die Marke von 2900 und fielen wieder, nachdem sie am Dienstag einen Höchststand von 2942 erreicht hatten; obwohl die Aussage von US-Notenbankchef Powell eine schnelle Zinssenkung verneinte, war die Gesamtvolatilität nicht groß und zeigte derzeit ein kurzfristiges Stagflationssignal. Im Tagesverlauf blieb die Schwäche bestehen, wobei auf die Auswirkungen der nachfolgenden VPI-Jahresrate zu achten ist; Eröffnung bei 2896 in der asiatischen Sitzung, kurzfristiger Widerstand bei 2904–2908, starker Widerstand bei 2912–2920; kurzfristige Unterstützung bei 2890, starke Unterstützung beim gestrigen Tief bei 2884–2882, Durchbruch auf 2870; In operativer Hinsicht besteht der Plan für den Tag darin, die wichtigsten Short-Positionen mit spezifischen Intraday-Tipps beizubehalten. Strategie: Verkaufen bei 2906, schützen bei 2916, Ziel 2882; halten bei Bruch;
The US CPI data will be published tomorrow. EURUSD has recently stabilized above the 1.03 mark, but remains weak. The big picture shows a desolate situation, which suggests that the market will test the lows from 2022 in the coming weeks. This assumption is confirmed by a look at the liquidity zones, which indicate significant support for EURUSD only at around 0.97.