Last leg of the 1st leg down bottoming this summer below $100 Than a dead cat bounce into Autumn and a final leg down during the deep 2026 Recession dumping below $20
? XAUUSD Market Recap – April 21, 2025 | NY Close Review ? Price Action: Gold made another aggressive high into ATH 3430, reaching full premium territory with strong upside momentum through London into NY. But the reaction near 3430 was sharp — indicating potential short-term exhaustion. ? What Worked Today ✅ Liquidity sweep complete – Price ran clean through the previous weak high and liquidity above 3425, grabbing the top before rejecting. ✅ Bullish BOS confirmed – Structure remained bullish on all timeframes, with no valid CHoCH break on H1 or H4. ✅ Sniper bias confirmed – Directional buys played perfectly from lower OBs (especially the ones marked pre-Asia and pre-London). ? What Didn’t Happen ❌ No mitigation of lower H1/H4 FVGs – Zones between 3361 and 3387 remain completely untouched. ❌ The 3305–3315 OB area wasn’t retested – Meaning any breakout traders looking for retests were left hanging. ❌ No real signs of reversal structure – Despite the reaction off ATH, we’ve yet to see a proper CHoCH + BOS sequence on H1 or H4. ⚠️ Unmitigated Key Zones ? H1 FVG – 3361 ? H4 FVG – 3285.00–3300.00 ? H4 OB block – 3224 (untouched, still a strong magnet if sell momentum kicks in) These levels remain high interest for any future discount buy setups if price starts pulling back. ? What Was Rejected Today ? 3430 – New ATH. Price wicked into this level and rejected instantly with visible CHoCH on M15 and M5, leaving a clear bearish reaction. ? M15 OB – The supply zone around 3425–3430 acted as short-term resistance with an intraday bearish sequence into NY close. ? Market Sentiment ? Still bullish on HTF, but intraday shows clear profit-taking behavior. ? Dollar weakness and geopolitical premium still holding gold up — but overextension risk is real above 3425. ? Summary Gold remains in a strong uptrend but may be showing short-term exhaustion after hitting ATH 3430. With unmitigated OBs and FVGs below, any deeper pullback will be liquidity-driven, not structural bearishness… yet. We'll prep the sniper plan separately soon — stay ready. ?⚔️
News hit and stock into 300% gain in just 1 trading day after purchase on Thursday end of day. It doesn't even give you a chance for exit at planned target but much higher
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Very good trend by the bears but the close was bad for them. Giant tail below this daily bar and if they can not keep the market from retracing more than this 50%, we could reverse this to test 18200+ again. If we stay below 18000, I heavily favor the bears but for now I’m rather neutral and assess where we are before EU opens tomorrow. current market cycle: bear trend continues for now key levels: 16000 - 18500 bull case: Bulls need to break above the 50% retracement for today and can then continue higher to test the upper bear channel line around 18300. Any tariff news could get us there but todays news were bad at best. Bulls don’t have much until they reverse this day and claim 18170 again. Invalidation is below 17700. bear case: Bears got the breakout below and are on their way of retesting the lows but they have the problem, that we have not seen two consecutive decent trend days since 3 weeks ago when we sold from 20000. So what are the odds of another strong bear day tomorrow? Very low. Best for bears would be, if they kept the market below the 50% pb from today below 17940. This would leave a giant open gap and increase the odds of continuation down. Right now the bear channel down is very broad and I don’t think many bears will hold above 18000 and a decent bar above the 1h 20ema. If today was indeed the acceleration of this potential W5, we should see another strong trend day tomorrow and go for 17000. Invalidation is above 18050ish. short term: Bearish if we stay below 18000. Right now channel is broad and could go up to 18300. 1h 20ema should be latest resistance by the bears or we will likely test 18200 or 18300. If we continue down, next support is 17400, then my measured move target around 17250 and below is 17000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We had the clear W1 and W3 but now it’s messy. trade of the day: Short from Globex open.
The ETH/BTC pair’s RSI 30 DAY CHART(massive) is at extremely low levels 20, indicating oversold conditions that often precede reversals.
Pepe is facing local resistance after a bounce, but this isn’t necessarily bearish. The current level aligns with strong confluence, and a rejection here could actually set up a bullish higher low if support holds just below. Key Points: Price is reacting to the 0.618 Fib and value area high — a key technical resistance zone. Liquidity build-up below may trigger a sweep near the point of control before a bounce. If Pepe dips into the support zone near the point of control and reclaims the level, it could confirm a higher low and spark a rally back toward recent highs. The 35% move is possible if broader market strength aligns. If support fails, expect a deeper retrace.
//@version=5 indicator("Crypto Scalping Strategy (EMA + VWAP + RSI)", overlay=true) // EMA Settings emaFast = ta.ema(close, 9) emaSlow = ta.ema(close, 21) // VWAP vwap = ta.vwap // RSI rsi = ta.rsi(close, 14) // Plot EMAs and VWAP plot(emaFast, title="EMA 9", color=color.orange) plot(emaSlow, title="EMA 21", color=color.blue) plot(vwap, title="VWAP", color=color.purple) // Buy and Sell Conditions buySignal = ta.crossover(emaFast, emaSlow) and close > vwap and rsi > 50 and rsi < 70 sellSignal = ta.crossunder(emaFast, emaSlow) and close < vwap and rsi < 50 and rsi > 30 // Plot Buy/Sell Signals plotshape(buySignal, title="Buy", location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, style=shape.labelup, text="BUY") plotshape(sellSignal, title="Sell", location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, style=shape.labeldown, text="SELL")
? 1. COT Context – Canadian Dollar (CAD) Asset Managers: Consistently net short for most of the period, but since January 2025, there's been a strong recovery—net positions have become progressively less negative. By mid-April, they’re still short, but significantly less so. Leveraged Money: Also heavily short in December 2024, but showing a clear bullish reversal starting in early 2025, with net positions turning increasingly positive on CAD. ✅ Interpretation: There's been a clear sentiment shift from bearish to bullish on CAD starting late 2024. This adds downward pressure on USDCAD. ? 2. COT Context – US Dollar Index (USD) Asset Managers: Consistently long, but reducing their net exposure since late March 2025. Leveraged Money: Opposite of CAD – heavily short in December 2024, now recovering, though without strong momentum. Positions are hovering around neutral. ⚠️ Interpretation: While CAD grows stronger, USD shows signs of indecision or profit-taking. This amplifies the bearish bias on USDCAD. ? 3. Technical Analysis – USDCAD Current Price: 1.38369, right near a strong demand zone between 1.3700 – 1.3830, which has already been tested multiple times. The current weekly candle is forming a doji or pin bar, hinting at a potential technical bounce. Key Resistance: 1.45215 (monthly high). Key Support: 1.3700. A breakdown below this could trigger a move toward 1.3480. RSI: Neutral to slightly bearish, no major divergences observed. ? Technical Outlook: If the 1.3700–1.3830 zone holds, we might see a corrective bounce toward 1.4000–1.4100. If that zone breaks, expect a bearish continuation toward 1.3580–1.3480. ? Trade Summary Fundamental Bias (COT): Bearish USDCAD → Strong CAD, weakening USD. Technical Bias: Neutral to bearish, potential for short-term bounce before continuation. ? Trade Plan ? Short on pullback toward 1.4000–1.4100 with stop above 1.4150, targeting 1.3600–1.3500. ? Breakout trade below 1.3700 → Enter on daily close confirmation, target 1.3480.
Bitcoin is neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 51.863, MACD = 1668.900, ADX = 41.878), running a bullish steak of 3 green 1W candles in a row. Supported heavily by the 1W MA50, this looks like all previous HL bottoms since late 2022. Those kickstated bullish waves that have reached at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. The medium term trade here is long, TP = 160,000. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
GUNUSDT (Guncoin / Tether) shows a Bullish Harami pattern, which is often considered a potential sign of a reversal or continuation of the uptrend. This pattern consists of a small bearish candle (white) that is entirely contained within the prior larger bullish candle (green), suggesting a shift in momentum. Currently, the price is testing support at 0.04790, which is a key level to watch—if the price stays above this support, it could indicate further upward movement. On the upside, the price is approaching a resistance level at 0.05950. A successful break above this resistance could trigger more bullish momentum toward 0.06415. The volume appears stable, and if buying interest picks up, the upward trend could continue. In summary, if GUNUSDT holds above the support and breaks the resistance at 0.05950, it could push further towards higher levels. However, if it fails to break the resistance or drops below support, it could lead to consolidation or a downward move.