FX:USDJPY starts 2025 in what appears to be a Falling Wedge, but following the 50% Fibonacci Retracement based from the Low @ 148.639 to start December 2024 to the High @ 158.874 last month, Price seems to may be ready to setup for a Bullish Break of this Pattern. To see if FX:USDJPY has truly Broken Out of the Falling Wedge, here are some signals: 1) While price travels lower in the Falling Wedge, we can see Volume picks up the lower price goes 2) The Breaking Candle following the 2nd 50% Retracement touch generates a good amount of Bullish Volume compared to the similarly sized printed Bullish Candle following the 1st 50% Retracement touch (both candles marked in yellow to compare) 3) Following this Break, we see RSI Break above the 50 mark moving into Bullish territory. ** Buy Opportunities will come if Price successfully retest the Break of the Falling Resistance and finds Support. -- Beware of a False Break if Price decides to fall back down Below the Falling Resistance too soon before a legitimate test.
The groundhog saw his shadow, and it is money in the bank for NG!!!!! HA!!! This week’s video will discuss the verification of the warm up last week and next week in the US. How another Elongated Polar Vortex (EPV), the ninth of the season looks to finally break the stratospheres back with a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. Although not so sure why something that has been seen for the last three weeks is called sudden! How that is going to influence the next 3-8 weeks, and the verification form past events. Remember that the models have a hard time with the interaction of different forcing inputs. They can see the warm moist Pacific air, they can see the cold dense air in the Artic, but they have a difficult time having the two inter act. Throw in there an extreme Polar event 80 miles up in the atmosphere and they are down right horrible. But luckily, we have the past to help us see what these conditions have done and are likely to do again. We are so concerned about the weather due to it being close to ½ of the demand for NG usage. So if price discovery is dictated by the supply/demand balance and the weather influences one half of the demand, then we better understand what the weather will bring. Storage is dropping in Europe, putting a big demand for worldwide LNG. Tenders earmarked for Asia a being sold on the spot market and redirected to Europe. It looks that Europe is going to cool down again along with North America. I will post another time on the interaction between western European and North American weather patterns. But know that what happens in the US is telegraphed 7-10 days in Western Europe. This is why TTF has rallied this past week. They are looking at the same forcing patterns we are looking at. They get cold then the US get cold. They warm up the US warms up. Great tool to use in the summer also. This coming cold is going to eat away into the US NG storage. Two weeks ago, it was predicted that storage was going to end up somewhere around 1.7 TCF at the end of the withdrawal season. But the market only looking at the model’s, screaming winter is over, winter is over!!!! Had industry readjusting the storage numbers back up closer to 2.0 TCF. Which would put the season end 250BCF above the 5-year average. This cold will eat into storage, LNG facilities will continue to come on-line and producers will continue to show proper supply management. Listen to the Company conference calls from the big E&Ps, Pipeline provider, and oil/gas field providers. They are all in agreement that last year’s pricing killed their bottom line and discipline is the word of the day. I expect the models to continue to print colder as they take into count the MJO, major teleconnections, and the PV. The estimates for storage will begin to drop and the price to increase. There is much talk about Tariffs and the Chinese DeepSeek AI model going to influence the supply/demand balance. But these just become good excuses to sell rallies and pump price drops. The current COT report shows longs at their highest ratio to shorts since last May’s price rally. So be very careful of Long Squeezes. Just like a short squeeze, the future positions are highly leveraged and rapid and volatile price drops are more the rule than the exception. So, make sure you are watching the models during the 03:00-05:00 GMT and 17:00-19:00 GMT. I believe that the general trend is to be up until mid-March and will be investing and trading accordingly. These is not advice, but just what I am looking at for the basis of my own personal trading. I will post later in the week dedicated to only supply/demand/storage after the early week estimates get revised higher from the colder model prints and the overall general industry discussing the colder weather coming. Remember the institutional boys only want to discuss in the open what they have already bet on so the retail and smaller investor provide them with healthy exit points. Keep it Burning!
- This has broken significant resistance of 1.46; This would create a havoc and fuel the run to test 1.6. - Let's see how upcoming few months goes! - Canadian parliament is suspended, elections will happen end of 2025. This implies USD can cause massive damage to canadian economy for next 3-6 months.
H4 ChoCh Wait This H4 Closed BOS confirm EU session Sell Limit. TP 1.5 ratio Because 1D Still Red in SMC.
1.4h 2.downtrend 3.resist / 4.bearish expending triangle/ 5.rsi40/sto34/vol bearish but buye around the level trying to push up 6. 7fibexp blue zone 8. fibretrace left red zone 9. 10 11 12. bearish divergence 13.bearish engulfing/tweezer top/bearish harami 14bos bearish 1.2h 2. bearish 3.resist 4.bearish pannent bos/ 5rsi34/sto10/vol bearish signs 6 7fibextdone 8fibretrace done 9 10 11 12bearish divergence 13tweezer top/bearish engulfing/shooting star/ 14descending triangle 1.1h 2.dwn 3.resist 4.headand shoulder bos/new down trend forms/bearish exp triangle/bearish pannent 5.rsi35/sto4/volposible reversal ,but stil bearish 6. 7.fibextdone 8.fibretrdone 9. 10 11 12exp triangle 13 We wait the upward reversal and sell at the resistance zone Buyers are in the market but we exp more sellers at new or on Tuesday
Trade Idea for XAUUSD Position: Short (Sell) Reasoning: 1. Technical Analysis: • Daily Chart: Price is at a key resistance level near 2775-2780, showing signs of exhaustion. • M15 Chart: Recent strong bullish momentum has met resistance, and price has started to reject lower. • M3 Chart: Short-term trend reversal, showing lower highs and a loss of bullish momentum. • Indicators: • RSI (14) on M15 & M3: Shows overbought conditions. • MACD: Weakening momentum, signaling potential for reversal. 2. Fundamental Analysis: • If upcoming macroeconomic data (e.g., NFP, FOMC, CPI) favors USD strength, gold will likely decline. • Higher U.S. bond yields or hawkish Fed sentiment can put downward pressure on XAUUSD. Trade Setup • Entry: 2775 • Stop-Loss (SL): 2785 (Above recent highs) • Take-Profit (TP): 2755 • Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 2:1 This trade idea aligns with technical resistance, short-term reversal patterns, and fundamental factors favoring a potential gold decline.
In March 2024, Tata Motors Limited (TML) announced a strategic decision to demerge its operations into two separate listed entities. This move aims to enhance focus and agility within its distinct business segments. **Structure of the Demerger:** 1. **Commercial Vehicles (CV) Business:** One entity will encompass TML's Commercial Vehicles segment, including all related assets, liabilities, and investments. 2. **Passenger Vehicles (PV) Business:** The other entity will house the Passenger Vehicles segment, which covers passenger vehicles, electric vehicles (EVs), Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), and associated investments. **Implementation Details:** - **Scheme of Arrangement:** The demerger will be executed through a Composite Scheme of Arrangement among TML, TML Commercial Vehicles Limited (TMLCV), Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited (TMPV), and their respective shareholders, under Sections 230-232 of the Companies Act, 2013. - **Share Entitlement Ratio:** Shareholders of TML will receive one fully paid-up share of TMLCV for every share held in TML, ensuring identical shareholding in both entities. **Expected Timeline:** The demerger process is anticipated to take approximately 12 to 15 months, subject to necessary approvals from shareholders, creditors, and regulatory authorities. **Impact on Stakeholders:** TML has assured that the demerger will not adversely affect employees, customers, or business partners. The company believes this restructuring will lead to a superior experience for customers, better growth prospects for employees, and enhanced value for shareholders. This strategic move reflects Tata Motors' commitment to optimizing its operations and capitalizing on growth opportunities within the automotive sector.
Final rndr fib touch on .786, should see -.27. seems like an extremely good opportunity to load up
Gap down opening expected in nifty near the 23400 level. After opening if it's sustain above 23400 level then possible upside movement in nifty 23600 level. For today's session 23600 will act as a strong upside resistance for nifty. Major downside expected if nifty starts trading below the 23350 level this downside can goes upto 23150 level after the breakdown.
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