The European Central Bank will publish its staff revision on the neutral rate today. President Christine Lagarde said last week that r-star is “a range that does not give a guideline or a destination” and Olli Rehn added yesterday that “we should not constrain our freedom of action because of a theoretical concept”. That said, with the next couple of cuts not particularly up for debate, a lot of the action in pricing is focused on the terminal rate. The scope and timing of US tariffs would have a big say, but while markets await Trump’s move on the EU, today’s report is all markets will get in terms of terminal rate guidance, and we expect a euro reaction. Based on Rehn’s comments and the fact that r-star projections are model-based (i.e. embedding significantly higher inflation than in the past), our best guess is that today’s note will show a relatively high rate and send a hawkish signal. When adding downside risks for US payrolls, we favour a new leg higher in EUR/USD to retest the 1.044 Wednesday highs.
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SPX500 is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 6,128.66 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high. Stop loss is at 6,195.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. Take profit is at 6,011.02 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
The dollar’s bearish momentum has eased into today’s US jobs release. Most of the tariff shock from last weekend has been absorbed, and markets are also probably reconsidering the optimism on a US-China deal. Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs are due to come into effect on Monday, and the chances of a de-escalation before then have decreased. Also helping the dollar were some comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said the strong dollar policy remains in place. The biggest driver for FX should be US payroll figures for January. The consensus is for a slowdown from 256k to 175k, but our estimate is closer to 160k. A lot of focus will be on annual benchmark revisions. Last year's provisional revisions indicated that, upon cross-referencing with tax data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics had overestimated job creation by approximately one-third. This points to significant issues with their model, and we anticipate substantial adjustments to the monthly payroll numbers.
I Eexpect that the NFP news will drag the price to the FVG and BB, while we have CISD occured in the 4H chart, while the weekly bias is Bearish. so after the news if my expactation of NFP hit shorting the GBPUSD will be high probable trade.
ZEta has finally broken out from its long running bearish flat trend and broken its daily range Lets see if it goes above 200 MA which will confirm the bullish reversal and entry at 23/24 would be great entry to catch the train to 30+
XRP is currently trading at 2.30, moving within a descending channel formation. This pattern is typically bullish, suggesting that a breakout may occur soon. The price has been respecting the channel boundaries, making lower highs and lower lows, but momentum is showing signs of potential reversal. A critical support level lies at 2.25, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside. If this level holds and the price forms a bullish candlestick pattern, such as an engulfing candle or strong green close, it could indicate the start of an upward move. On the upside, the key breakout level is at 2.42, where a decisive 1H candle close above this level would confirm bullish momentum. Using Fibonacci retracement from the recent high of 2.70 to the swing low of 2.25, important levels align with structural resistance. The 0.382 retracement around 2.40 to 2.42 coincides with the upper boundary of the descending channel, making it the first confirmation zone. The 0.5 level at 2.48 is a mid-range resistance, while the 0.618 level at 2.55 to 2.57 serves as a strong bullish target if the breakout occurs. Additionally, the 1H 50 EMA is positioned near 2.35 to 2.38, acting as dynamic resistance that, once reclaimed, would further validate the bullish move. Momentum indicators suggest that the market is at a crucial juncture. The RSI is currently below 50, indicating weak momentum, but if it moves above 55 to 60, it would confirm a shift in trend strength. Volume has been decreasing, which often precedes a breakout, meaning a sudden surge in volume above 2.40 would validate buyer interest and increase the probability of a sustained upward move. For a trade setup, the ideal long entry would be upon confirmation of a bullish candlestick pattern, especially if accompanied by a breakout above 2.42. The first target would be 2.48, aligning with the Fibonacci 0.5 level, followed by 2.55 to 2.60, where further confirmation of bullish momentum is expected. A stop-loss should be placed below 2.25 to mitigate the risk of fakeouts and potential downside continuation. If the price successfully breaks above 2.42 and sustains momentum, it could lead to a rally toward 2.60 and beyond. However, if support at 2.25 fails, the price could retrace further toward 2.20 to 2.15 before finding stability. It is crucial to wait for a proper breakout confirmation before entering a trade to avoid unnecessary risks.
We need the two signals. This week it touched the lower trenline of daily channel. yet no candlestick confirmation. 1st, candle stick pattern close on weekly basis. 2nd: Quaterly report is expected in next two weeks which will confirm the technical movement. A positive report will boost the bullish sentiment to first @70 area and upon break the trenline resistance, it will move further to 100.... matlab century to marega.. A negative report will dump it and price may drop to its monthly fibb level at 60% around 45 area. Lets' wait and see. I will think about the position next week upon weekly candlestick closure.
The elephant in the room The focal point of late has undoubtedly been US President Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canadian goods shipped to the US. A 25% universal tariff rate would be troublesome for the Canadian economy—despite the exemption for energy products. But it would also have a notable stagflationary effect on the US—making it an expensive strategy for Trump. Further, Canada laid out its retaliation strategy which is designed to respond in kind. We still think the tariffs will not be implemented in that form and “deal making” will remain key in the Trump administration’s strategy. Canada not in a good place to begin with Canada remains in a weak negotiation spot politically without a functioning government in place and new elections likely later in 2Q. Moreover, the economy is hurting given its high interest-rate sensitivity and elevated Bank of Canada (BoC) policy rates for some time. Accordingly, the BoC struck a cautious tone in their policy meeting last week and noted their readiness to react to any economic shock in relation to US tariffs. This would be much needed given fiscal stimulus is unlikely to come to the rescue given Parliament remains prorogued until March. USDCAD to retest 1.46 highs—even without tariffs The market reaction to Trump’s proposed tariffs was rather benign and was completely reversed following the delay in implementation. From here, we do not see much of a risk premium priced into USDCAD and, rather, the pair trades below what rates differentials suggest. While we do not expect the tariffs to be implemented in the aforementioned form, a risk of some adverse trade action remains. We think USDCAD can test 1.46 again in the coming months before edging lower later in the year. Broader USD strength might also be enough to get there—even in the absence of tariffs on Canada.
HIT 4HR + SWEPT ASIA LOW = TP1 When tap into this 15min = TP2 Tp2 because its the leg that started the down move but i would leave a runner as it should go up more but this isn't financial advice lmao