Despite MicroStrategy's latest Bitcoin accumulation and bullish US crypto policy shifts, price action tells a different story that could spell trouble for BTC if key technical levels give way. ? MicroStrategy's Struggle: Bullish Accumulation vs Bearish Structure MicroStrategy (MSTR) ended Q1 2025 with a deeply concerning price structure that signals the bulls are losing momentum despite an environment rich with crypto-positive headlines. From regulatory optimism to corporate adoption and even MicroStrategy's own record-breaking Bitcoin accumulation, the narrative seems bullish on the surface. Between March 17 and March 23, MicroStrategy purchased an additional 6,911 BTC for $584.1 million, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to over 500,000 BTC, valued at roughly $44 billion. Yet, instead of rallying, the stock plunged over 10% on Friday, March 28, closing just above the critical $288.20 support zone—a level highlighted in our March 10 analysis as a make-or-break point. This divergence between news and price action is precisely why technical structure matters more than headlines. As MSTR continues to mirror Bitcoin's moves, failing to hold $288.20 could trigger a cascade of selling that reaches beyond equities and into the crypto market itself. ? Technical Setup: The Last Stand at $288.20 On the daily chart, a symmetrical triangle has formed, tightening price action and pointing toward an imminent breakout or breakdown. For now, pressure is building to the downside. Failed breakout attempt at $342.97 confirms short-term weakness Critical support: $288.20 (three-month major level) Immediate downside targets: $264 → $248 Bearish continuation targets: $208 → $168 → $135 To avoid this bearish progression, bulls must defend $288.20 with conviction. If they can reclaim and hold above $327, it may revive short-term optimism and re-establish the recovery narrative. But the longer the price stalls below $300, the more vulnerable MicroStrategy—and, by extension, Bitcoin—becomes. ? The MSTR–Bitcoin Connection: Deeply Intertwined The relationship between MicroStrategy and Bitcoin is unlike any other corporate-stock pairing in modern finance. With over half a million BTC on its balance sheet, MSTR doesn't just reflect Bitcoin's value—it amplifies it, functioning like a leveraged BTC ETF in the eyes of the market. This is why Bitcoin's rejection at $87,355 last week happened almost in lockstep with MSTR's price failure at $342.97. BTC bounced from $78,540 to $87,355, only to reverse. As of writing, Bitcoin trades at around $82,194 after testing key support at $81,934. Just like MSTR, Bitcoin is sitting on fragile ground. ? Bitcoin Levels to Watch: Support: $81,934 (short-term) → $78,540 (major) Breakdown zone: Below $78,540 → opens the path to $71,974 Upside trigger: Reclaim $87,355 → could push toward $91,000 The concern now is whether the bulls can sustain this support, or it's only a matter of time before Bitcoin follows MicroStrategy lower. ? Fundamental Forces: Optimism vs. Reality This pullback is happening despite favourable macro and crypto-specific developments, adding another caution layer. ✅ Positive Developments: MicroStrategy's aggressive BTC accumulation US administration signalling support for crypto reserves Corporate adoption stories (GameStop exploring Bitcoin, growing ETF inflows) ? But Price Action Isn't Responding: Risk markets are stalling, with equities pausing near highs Yields remain sticky, providing no support for risk-off demand in Bitcoin The Dollar (DXY) remains in a fragile position, yet BTC hasn't capitalized on it As we've said before: "What you need to know is usually revealed on the chart—before the news." This disconnect between headlines and price is a red flag. ? Scenarios to Watch: Rebound or Breakdown? ? Bearish Scenario: MSTR loses $288.20, BTC loses $81,934 Price accelerates to $264 for MSTR and $78,540 for BTC Breakdown opens the door to deeper selloffs: $135 for MSTR, $71,974 for BTC ? Bullish Scenario: MSTR reclaims $327, BTC reclaims $87,355 Momentum could rebuild toward $342.97 and $91,000, respectively Macro tailwinds, such as Fed clarity or risk rally, would be required to sustain it ⚠️ Final Thoughts: Bulls Are Running Out of Room While MicroStrategy's aggressive Bitcoin strategy has made it a flagship of corporate crypto adoption, the market doesn't trade headlines—it trades structure. And right now, that structure is deteriorating. Unless bulls step in to defend $288.20 for MSTR and $81,934 for BTC, the risk of a breakdown grows sharply. Bitcoin and MicroStrategy may continue to move together, but if one fails, the other is unlikely to stand alone.
Since early March, EUR/JPY has surged nearly 1,000 pips, providing us with several excellent trading opportunities. However, as the rally matures, many early buyers are beginning to take profits, leading to a noticeable slowdown in the uptrend. On Friday, the pair formed a Death Cross, a well-known bearish signal, prompting us to enter a direct sell trade at 161.30 in anticipation of a broader correction. Our bearish outlook is reinforced by a double top pattern at 163.00, which represents a lower high compared to the previous swing high at 164.00. This formation suggests a weakening bullish momentum, increasing the likelihood of a trend reversal. If our analysis is correct, we aim to take profit near 159.00, aligning with the crucial 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level—often a strong support zone. To mitigate potential losses while allowing sufficient market fluctuation, we are implementing a stop-loss with a 1.2% distance. This strategic risk management approach ensures our trade remains protected while maintaining the flexibility needed for price movement. As we monitor the market’s response to these technical signals, we anticipate a profitable opportunity in the coming sessions.
We are starting this week with sharp moves, where we are seeing the weekend selling pressure continue into the new week. As we are approaching the end of the month for March, we are expecting to see a big volatility, and as we still have not touched our major support zone, we expect the next month to start with some sharp moves as well to lower zones. The week has started well so far! We been talking about our major target being near $70-73K for long time, so we wait patiently Swallow Team
Hey hey ! Marked the important levels in this video for this week Which market should I analyze next for you? Subscribe to my telegram channel The author's opinion may differ from yours, Consider your risks, DYOR.
Short term expected to have a bounce before further downside, Monthly - sign of reversal to downside. Weekly - bearish initiated Daily - Still bearish trend
Here is our in-depth view and update on EURUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels . Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at EURUSD from a bigger perspective. After making such a huge upside move, we are expecting EURUSD to have some sort of a correction or a pullback to the downside. After that we got a sell off on EURUSD and just today we hit the 50% correction level at around 1.08442 . After failing to break to the upside we can expect more sells to be in play. Any breaks to the downside from the current price will confirm this. Although TVC:DXY is not as strong at the moment, it still is a global reserve currency . We seen that in play last week when we saw massive upside on OANDA:XAUUSD and on TVC:DXY . We must understand that investors are also pouring their money into DXY as it is a global reserve currency. I still personally believe TVC:DXY holds more strength against TVC:EXY hence why I am still looking to short the pair. Scenario 1: SELLS from current price With the instant sell, we are risking a possible pullback and continuations to the upside however, DXY is looking like it will reverse. Failing to break to the upside can also be taken as a confirmation for potential sells. Scenario 2: BUYS at the break of the Key Level (around 1.085) With the break to the upside, we can expect more buys to come in play possibly targeting previous highs on EURUSD at around 1.09444. KEY NOTES - DXY possible reversal to the upside. - Breaks above the KL and to the upside would confirm higher highs. - EURUSD has completed the 50% correction to the upside. - DXY is the global reserve currency. Happy trading! FxPocket
?Hello traders, let's review the D1 chart for USDCHF today. Price action contained within a well-defined range since September 2024. ?Premium prices at 9100/9185, below at 0225/0190. range highs 9050 and range lows set at 8540. trading mid range right now. ?Recommended strategy for USDCHF traders: break below 8740 exposes further downside, expecting dump. short sell break below 8740 SL 60 TP1+120 pips TP2+240 pips final exit +340 pips. swing trade setup, might require more time to hit targets. good luck traders! ?Please hit the like button and ?Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
OH OH HOT DOG Where to? around the 170s for a homerun of the move. we need to break below the trendline for it to work to the 0.382 and retest the trendline (or not retest) straight for the domino stoploss hunt For it to work we need 1. ratecuts to not arrive (less loans, too expensive) 2.sp500 to keep nuking which is acting up from the same reason as reason number 1
Gold (XAUUSD) finally hit our 3 month $3000 target that we've been pursuing since the very first week of this year (January 06, see chart below) and in later stages upgraded to $3100: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/X9bYG5mj-XAUUSD-Bullish-break-out-targeting-3000-about-to-happen/ Now the price has reached the top of the 1.5-year Channel Up, forming a similar 1D MACD peak formation while completing the +22.50% rise that the previous two major Bullish Legs had. As you can see, the pattern makes its Higher High on the 2nd MACD Bearish Cross and in 2 out of 3 Bearish Legs it retraced all the way to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, while on the remaining it the correction was contained to just above the 0.382 Fib. On all cases the price came close to the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) before bottoming. As a result, even though some more Trump announcements may cause a momentary push upwards, we technically think that it is a solid level to turn bearish now with a fair 2900 Target on the 0.382 Fibonacci where by the end of April it should come close to the 1D MA100. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE ?, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE ? and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ?????? ? ? ? ? ? ?
FenzoFx—GBP/USD faces resistance at $1.3010. A breakout above this level could target $1.3268, confirming a bullish trend. However, a drop below $1.2865 would invalidate the bullish outlook, potentially driving the price toward $1.2690.