Trendline Break and Retest: Gold broke a descending trendline but made a false breakout, returning into the range. This indicates indecision or a lack of strong follow-through in either direction. Short-term Movement Expectation: Price is likely to drop to the major support level at 2621. This aligns with the idea of filling the range before making another attempt at testing 2650. Swing Trade Setup: A potential move to the 2540-2585 swing range is plausible if the monthly candle needs to fill that area. This is likely a fake-out scenario designed to trap traders before a stronger directional move. Trading Strategy: Swing traders might consider taking long positions in the 2540-2585 range for a potential reversal. Wait for confirmation (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns or strong volume at key levels) before entering trades. Keep an eye on the 2621 key support, as a failure to hold here may accelerate the move lower. This approach combines short-term risk with potential long-term upside if the price respects these identified levels. Always manage risk with appropriate stop-loss levels and monitor macroeconomic factors influencing gold.
1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations. US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating. When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections. 2. Historical Patterns In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections: Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions. 2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy. 2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction. The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess. If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops: 3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator A. Reflects Cost of Capital Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise. B. Overheating Economy High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs. C. Peak Growth Phase A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds. 4. Why It May Predict Market Tops Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions. Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows. Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
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Heading towards 2T USD. Confluence with BTCDOM and other fundamentals. Pending some huge catalyst.
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When it rises up, it is a good idea to buy store of value assets, as this is a sign of depreciation of the $. *DYOR*
I don’t know if this is valid or not since it’s purely based on my analysis and not an invitation to buy or sell. Please consider it as a reference only. I observe that gold or XAU/USD is currently experiencing a decline, potentially reaching $2625 and possibly as low as $2600 at its strong support level. I’m not confident that XAU/USD will break below that price because it is a key level where the price is very significant. Therefore, it’s likely that the price will rebound from the $2625-$2600 range and head back upward, with a possible long-term target of $2700. Currently, the price is at the psychological key level of $2650, where there is a chance of a slight increase before either continuing downward toward the $2625-$2600 area or rebounding. Be cautious if the price breaks below the $2600 support level, as it could lead to a significant drop. This makes it a very critical key level.
Looking for the W pattern to enter the bull curve and pump continues to the prior ATH Bullish soon on this NFT coin
On Verge Of Another Breakout Consolidating Within Tight Bullish Flag Range Expecting Move Towards 3.50$ After Successful Breakout Its Easier To Catch Good Entries In trending Markets So we will Go With trend
Strong trending market Nice looking retracement trendline Price pulling back into structure Faster stochastic lines reaching oversold Faster stochastic lines are likely to be pulled up to the slower stochastic Faster Stochastic lines maybe printing divergence soon Wait for lower timeframe confirmation signals before entry https://www.tradingview.com/x/1HI1JNrU/